Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[aggiecutter]

The 0Z EURO at day 7 has pressures rising rapidly in the Yukon Territory and British Colombia. This is an indication that the Arctic air is building and getting ready to descend into the lower 48.

0Z EURO: Day 7:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[aggiecutter]

The 12Z EURO shows pressures continuing to rise in the Canadian provinces and the cold air beginning to spill into the Northwestern US.

12z EURO:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[aggiecutter]

The 0Z Ensembles still bringing the Siberian Cold to Texas and the southern plains.

0Z Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[aggiecutter]

850 anomalies are much more impressive than yesterday's.

850 Ensemble means anomalies:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

[Portastorm]

850 anomalies are much more impressive than yesterday's.

850 Ensemble means anomalies:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... ation.html

Thanks for showing this aggiecutter ... I was just looking at that map and noticing how much stronger this potential Arctic outbreak is looking. It appears the GFS operational runs are slow to pick up on this but the 6z is looking a little colder for Texas than the 0z run today. We shall see.

[gboudx]

DFW gives a mention of colder air next week:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
...

321 AM DISCUSSION...
...

AS THE UPPER LOW HEADS EAST...ANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND THEN INTO EASTERN CONUS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SECOND EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY THEN AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN STATES
WEDNESDAY. WE ARE WATCHING THE SCENARIO FOR MUCH COLDER AIR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS ARCTIC FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

Norman, OK as well:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 AM CST THU JAN 4 2007

...
WARMING TREND THEN LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE
GFS BRINGS DOWNS A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT LOOKS TO COME OUT OF ALASKA AND NORTHWEST
CANADA AND COULD BE QUITE COLD. WILL BEGIN TREND OF COOLER TEMPS FOR
DAY 7 AND SEE IF TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP
REMAINDER OF FORECAST DRY.

[CaptinCrunch]

I bet I can top that last post.. There is a snow/ice mix in the D/FW 15 day forecast starting on the 15th thru the 17th of this month, with high's in the upper 30's and low's in the mid 20's.

BUT!! it is a 15 day forecast so don't take it to the bank just yet!!

[Portastorm]

The 0z GFS (especially at 192 hrs and beyond) says "Texas, I got your winter right here ..."

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[JonathanBelles]

looks like cali gets in on the act too.

[southerngale]

The 0z GFS (especially at 192 hrs and beyond) says "Texas, I got your winter right here ..."

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

192 hours?

one thousand one, one thousand two, one thousand three...ooh boy, this is gonna take a while.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I know this is accuweather and is computer generated, but it is still a cold and interesting forecast...

Starting Jan. 15th they drop highs into the 40s and lows into the 20s and then from that point onward they show highs at or below 50-degrees for the north Houston area with multiple mornings in the 20s. If this plays out then a long duration jacket weather episode may be in store for sure. Brrr..

[TexasStooge]

The rain/snow is back in the El Paso forecast...don't know for how long though. Mean while, in the Panhandle region, a slight chance of snow is in the forecast for Amarillo and Lubbock. No weather alerts have been issued yet, but those who are doing road trips in those areas, be careful.

AMARILLO
Tonight: 23°F
Saturday: 42°F
Saturday Night: 22°F

LUBBOCK
Tonight: 28°F
Saturday: 44°F
Saturday Night: 27°F

EL PASO
Tonight: 34°F
Saturday: 45°F
Saturday Night: 28°F

[Johnny]

It looks like the Dallas/Fort Worth office is already jumping aboard....kind of unusual this far out.



THINGS REALLY BECOME INTERESTING THURSDAY AND AFTERWARDS. NORTH
PACIFIC UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO ALASKA BY MID-NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM LONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...AND SWING A NORTHERN TERRITORIES UPPER LOW DOWN INTO
ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY DOWN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. IF THIS COLD AIR CAN SINK INTO NORTH
TEXAS...SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH COULD RESULT IN A
BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY MID-JANUARY AND AFTERWARDS.

[Johnny]

Ok, AFM...bring us back to reality. Whatcha ya seein' my man?

[wxman22]

Even though this is a long ways off the 0z GFS shows some pretty cold air coming into Texas something to watch....



6z is simmaler also...:

[Portastorm]

The 0z GFS (especially at 192 hrs and beyond) says "Texas, I got your winter right here ..."

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

192 hours?

one thousand one, one thousand two, one thousand three...ooh boy, this is gonna take a while.

In the words of that great American philosopher Tom Petty: "The waiting is the hardest part."

[Portastorm]

Here are some of the Friday morning thoughts from the pro mets on next week's increasingly likely arctic outbreak for Texas:

Jeff Lindner says: "Big changes may be in the making for major arctic air outbreak across the entire US. For sometime now teleconnection data has suggested a pattern transition and potential for increased mid latitude blocking in a favorable location to unlock very cold air into what has been a “warm” US winter. It would appear given the latest long range guidance that the threat of a severe and prolonged cold air outbreak is in the making during the Jan 10-20 period.

GFS with support from other medium range models show large scale upper air amplification over the western US deep into Alaska where bitter cold Siberian air mass will reside. Operational GFS shows dense and very cold surface air mass starting the plunge around the middle of next week over taking much of the central plains north of TX by weeks end. Upper air pattern remains somewhat zonal over TX and the GFS keeps the cold just north of the state and then unleashes it in a big way around the 15th. Feel such a strong air mass may buck the zonal flow and undercut under its own density arriving sooner than the 15th. Timing is still be big wide card, but a long period of very cold air could be in store starting around the 10-15th and lasting easily through the end of the month. Additionally, the southern branch looks to remain active with precip. to be had over TX within the arctic air mass.

Multiple threats of winter precip. appear possible from the 15th onward. Pattern change and potential cold air outbreak bear close watch. "

Fort Worth NWSFO says: "THINGS REALLY BECOME INTERESTING THURSDAY AND AFTERWARDS. NORTH PACIFIC UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO ALASKA BY MID-NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FORCE A DOWNSTREAM LONG TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES...AND SWING A NORTHERN TERRITORIES UPPER LOW DOWN INTO ALBERTA.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY. IF THIS COLD AIR CAN SINK INTO NORTH TEXAS...SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH COULD RESULT IN A BOUT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY MID-JANUARY AND AFTERWARDS. "

Amarillo NWSFO says: "IT APPEARS AN ARCTIC COLD AIR DUMP IS HEADED INTO THE US LATER NEXT WEEK...WITH A LARGE COLD WRN TROF DVLPG. DEPENDING ON HOW ALL THIS TRANSPIRES...PNHDLS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO WINTER TIME TEMPS AGAIN...WITH SOME THREAT OF PRECIP BEYOND THIS PCKG. DID BRING AN INITIAL COLD FRONT INTO THE FCST AREA NEXT THU AFTN TO START THE BALL
ROLLING."

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

PS,

You just may get to kick the football this time.

Have you climbed Mt Bastardi this morning?

[Portastorm]

CC ... the Wise One continues to remain bullish on this pending event.

As for me and that football ... dang it, I'm lacing up my cleats right now!!

[double D]

I'm surprised EWG hasn't been posting more since the arctic air looks to be headed right down into Texas with possible winter precipitation.

One thing to note is that last year the GFS seemed to show cold air in the 10-15 day time period and stayed that way for much of the winter. I will like to see the arctic air show up on the models when it gets to day 6 or day 4. Although the gfs has been pretty consistent on the pattern change.... I just hope portastorm gets to kick the football once this year.