And they JUST KEEP a comin'

[azsnowman]

Have a pretty decent system moving in tonight through Saturday and now THIS :o


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A VERY BROAD AND DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN CA. THIS COULD PRODUCE A VERY WET EPISODE AND CANT BE DISCOUNTED BASED ON CURRENT STATE OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND EL NINO. HAVE INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND WILL BE MONITORING IN UPCOMING DAYS.

[azsnowman]

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FXUS65 KFGZ 042216 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 315 PM MST THU JAN 04 2007 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SNOW AND RAIN BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA...AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RAPIDLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING TO NEAR 4000 FEET SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND TO THE VALLEY FLOORS TO THE NORTH. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIG TOWARD NORTHERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY EXTENDS EAST-TO-WEST THROUGH CENTRAL NV. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF NORTHWEST AZ AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER LIMITS TYPICAL NOCTURNAL DECOUPLING FROM WINDS ALOFT. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH TONIGHT...NOTABLY THE AREA ALONG HWY 89 FROM DONEY PARK NORTHWARD...UNTIL AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE INITIAL FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION...AND WILL RAPIDLY DROP SNOW LEVELS FROM NEAR 6000 FEET TO NEAR 4000 FEET. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NW COCONINO COUNTY IN THE EARLY MORNING...AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY BY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FALLING FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...MOISTURE PROFILES INDICATE SATURATION IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE C LAYER IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AND WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE STORM APPEARS AS IF IT WILL KEEP MOVING AT A MODERATE PACE RATHER THAN STALLING OUT...WHICH WILL PREVENT THIS FROM PRODUCING WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOWFALL. MOST AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH AREAS FROM 4500 TO 6000 FEET GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EXCEEDED...BUT THE AVERAGE AMOUNT OF STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY AROUND .25 INCHES (TRANSLATING TO 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW) OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...DOES NOT WARRANT ANY SNOW ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT.

[bob rulz]

This storm came through and dropped 6 inches of non-lake-effect snow here; lake-effect could hit us tonight.

However, the trough that's expected to develop by next Thursday will probably be hyped by my local weather station once this storm fully passes through. One local news station already has a 60% chance of snow for that day! And it's 7 days out still. This has been pretty hyped for a storm still 7 days away.

[azsnowman]

Getting PLASTERED as I post this visibilty down to LESS than 25 yds or LESS with a stiff NE wind of 21 gusting to 38 mph, blowing, drifting and COLDER than a well diggers butt

[azsnowman]

Here's the latest radar... I'm the + mark with the circle just south east of Show Low!

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... rainsnow=0