Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I took a climb up to Mt. Bastardi just now and he says the worst combo for cold and precip during the mid to later part of the month could be the Southern Plains.

The train is warming up in the station.

[southerngale]

Oh crud...I can't hold back any longer. My local met who I highly respect is even on board for the much colder weather. Now we just need to get some snow down here!


All aboard...

[Portastorm]

I know how to get AFM on this thread ... heh, heh ...

Hey AFM, the best way to determine if it'll snow is by using the 0 degree isotherm with the 850 mb maps, right? (hee, hee)

[Portastorm]

Oh crud...I can't hold back any longer. My local met who I highly respect is even on board for the much colder weather. Now we just need to get some snow down here!


All aboard...

A-ha! I knew we could get you on board ... everyone, buy your tix now for the Arctic Express heading for Texas.

Meanwhile southerngale, I'll make sure that we get some Bon Jovi playing on the train's entertainment sound system! "Have a Nice Day"!!

[gboudx]

Bon Jovi on the sound system? Guess I'll bring my MP3 player.

[southerngale]

oooh, thanks! Now you'll never get me off of the train.

I tried to hold back, but geesh...even gboudx is trying to kick the football.

[southerngale]

Bon Jovi on the sound system? Guess I'll bring my MP3 player.

I'm going to pretend I didn't hear that.

[KatDaddy]

Bring on 1895 part II.....................2007. 1-2 feet of snow for Houston ...................

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Bring on 1895 part II.....................2007. 1-2 feet of snow for Houston ...................

[double D]

I wouldn't be surprised if the arctic air gets into Texas sooner than the models indicate. Remember that the gfs handles arctic air poorly and tends to hold back arctic fronts. I think by next weekend we might be making snow angles in Texas.

[aggiecutter]

Hello, this is what I call direct discharge of Arctic air into Texas and the southern plains.
GFS 500mb:1050mb high over Montana, heading toward the GOM:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/mrf.121.gif

[aggiecutter]

Whether we get any winter precipitation in Texas will be determined by how much the Arctic front undercuts the SW flow ahead of it. As seen on the day 9 map of the GFS, there is a low along the front in Central Texas. If that scenario were to take place, only the panhandle of Texas and central and southern Oklahoma would receive any significant winter precipitation. However, if the front is another 100 or so miles to the south,then the central and northern parts of the state would receive a significant winter weather event. Based on past experience, I'm going to say that northern Texas will get only wrap around moisture as the low pulls away, resulting only in a minor event. However, it will be very, very cold after the front pulls through.

If we are going to get a major winter storm with this cold episode, we'll need another low to form in the Gulf a couple days later while the arctic air is still in place. The timing of the first system, at least as it stands now, is not favorable for a major winter weather event. But, it will be very cold as this air mass originated in Siberia. As always, things could change, but that is how it looks as of now.

GFS Day 9:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/mrf.120.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting quote from JBs evening post:

...a more sustained and aggressive push of winter that may get everyone all the way to the Texas gulf coast, (give me big enough odds on frozen precip in Houston this winter, I will take them)...

Always nice to see encouraging words like that.

[double D]

I'm sure the low will fluctuate many times between now and when the cold air arrives. The only problem with very cold air masses in Texas is that it tends to dry out the atmosphere where there is not enough moisture left. This is where our good friend "El Nino" comes in to help us out.

[double D]

Interesting quote from JBs evening post:

...a more sustained and aggressive push of winter that may get everyone all the way to the Texas gulf coast, (give me big enough odds on frozen precip in Houston this winter, I will take them)...

Always nice to see encouraging words like that.

I really hope JB is right this time... Also what is encouraging is that it looks like the cold might hang around for a while instead of leaving after a couple of days.

[aggiecutter]

EWG, has Joe set a timetable as to when the front will move through Texas.

[Portastorm]

JB says the front will be sitting from the Western Gulf to the Mid Atlantic states by the 15th. Frontal passage next Friday (the 14th) through the bulk of the state ... doing the remedial math ...

[weatherrabbit_tx]

the mid to last part of the month is going to be fun if you like winter weather, I see lucy teeing up the ball and I'm getting in line to be one of the placekickers!

[Portastorm]

Interesting quote from JBs evening post:

...a more sustained and aggressive push of winter that may get everyone all the way to the Texas gulf coast, (give me big enough odds on frozen precip in Houston this winter, I will take them)...

Always nice to see encouraging words like that.

Do you feel ok EWG? Is this all you have to say? Did someone slip a Xanax into your Coke?

I'm worried about ya, young man.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting quote from JBs evening post:

...a more sustained and aggressive push of winter that may get everyone all the way to the Texas gulf coast, (give me big enough odds on frozen precip in Houston this winter, I will take them)...

Always nice to see encouraging words like that.

Do you feel ok EWG? Is this all you have to say? Did someone slip a Xanax into your Coke?

I'm worried about ya, young man.

lol.

I'm fine. There is just not much more to say right now. Learning from past experiences, I am going to wait until we are closer to the event before getting really excited. At the moment I am still just watching and being hopeful everything plays out this time around.