Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

aggiecutter · #461 Postby **aggiecutter** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:11 pm

If the front is in the Gulf by the 15th as JB says, then the low will track a long its boundary and most of the state will have a significant winter weather event. I just checked the Ensembles MSLP and remarkably it is lock, stock and barrel with the GFS(MRF) run---see post above.

Ensemble MSLP:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 10500.html

KatDaddy · #462 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:13 pm

Hey all. EWG just may get his snowfall here in Houston. If the models pan out, this could bring quite a Winter Storm to a large part of TX......ala memories of the 1940s and 1970s. A weak El Nina could bring the "perfect conditions" of a signifcant snowfall to SE TX. We all know the 2004 Christmas Eve snowfall was a total fluke....liked it

#463 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:28 pm

The other reason why I'm thinking this time ... THIS TIME ... we (Texas) are going to get to kick the football is because all of the more seasoned weather weenies on eastern US wx forums as well as some pro mets are lamenting the fact that the Rockies and Plains appear to be getting the brunt of this arctic outbreak.

Makes me think that our usual tease of "cold air appears to be heading our way only to be shunted northeast" may not be the case.

KatDaddy · #464 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:34 pm

I am rooting for you Portastorm! Snowfall for you .

By the way off topic I will be in Austin tomorrow night. My wife went to ASJ......Anmerican School in Japan. She missed her 20th reunion in Seattle this year. We are supposed to go to an ex-students house and then to the Peacock Lounge. I check it out online....looks interesting. If you have any info, tips, etc. PM me.

double D · #465 Postby **double D** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:37 pm

Portastorm wrote:The other reason why I'm thinking this time ... THIS TIME ... we (Texas) are going to get to kick the football is because all of the more seasoned weather weenies on eastern US wx forums as well as some pro mets are lamenting the fact that the Rockies and Plains appear to be getting the brunt of this arctic outbreak.

Makes me think that our usual tease of "cold air appears to be heading our way only to be shunted northeast" may not be the case.

That's why I like this forum so much because we can be weenies and not be criticized about it. :lol:

KatDaddy · #466 Postby **KatDaddy** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:47 pm

That is the basis Storm2k was built on double D. You can thank Storm 97, 98, 99 and 2000 over at GoPBi....now 2007

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... /homepage/

History Class.......This is where Storm2k originated.

TexasStooge · #467 Postby **TexasStooge** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:54 pm

I hope the rest of Texas gets some snow later this month. Seems the forecast models recently posted may mean the right conditions, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there. Of course, I know who's getting some snow tonight through tomorrow, the northern half of the panhandle region and El Paso, TX. A Snow and Blowing Snow Advisory is in effect for the western portions of the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle regions.

NWS - Amarillo wrote:LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TONIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE LOW VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW.

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT VISIBILITIES WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. USE
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS.

AMARILLO
Tonight:

23°F
Saturday:

43°F
Saturday Night:

22°F

DALHART
Tonight:

19°F
Saturday:

39°F
Saturday Night:

18°F

EL PASO
Tonight:

34°F
Saturday:

45°F
Saturday Night:

27°F

Alright, enough of the panhandle, what about the rest of Texas?

#468 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 10:55 pm

Heh, heh ... just changed my avatar. I'm sure I've jinxed it now for all of us. :roll:

aggiecutter · #469 Postby **aggiecutter** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:09 pm

Edited

Yankeegirl · #470 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Jan 05, 2007 11:43 pm

I did notice that Accuweather has the temps here taking a nose dive later in the month, like in the middle of the month... I dont usually base anything upon accuweather since it is a week or so away, but its fun to look at and hope for... I dont see anything in the frozen precip, but the temps are chilly!!! I would like winter back...

HouTXmetro · #471 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:04 am

I hate WInter

Yankeegirl · #472 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:18 am

I love winter... I get sick of the hot summers and love the short winter break we get... Its nice to use the fireplace!

double D · #473 Postby **double D** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 10:49 am

KatDaddy wrote:That is the basis Storm2k was built on double D. You can thank Storm 97, 98, 99 and 2000 over at GoPBi....now 2007

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... /homepage/

History Class.......This is where Storm2k originated.

Very interesting, thanks for posting that little tid bit.

#474 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:29 am

NWS FTW TX

A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS NEXT SATURDAY...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.

That would be the 13th 2 days ahead of the LP system coming out of the GOM.... :ggreen:

Extremeweatherguy · #475 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:01 pm

The accuweather.com 15-day forecast is calling for rain changing to freezing rain the night of the 14th and then rain mixing with ice on the 15th for Spring, TX.

Also, the latest from JB:

-He said get ready for nasty prolonged cold over the next 3-4 weeks that will make you wonder what is going on. He then said that the first shot (of cold) toward the end of this week/the weekend will have it's numbers beaten like "Scarlett Ohara's mule".

-He said that if he were working at Texas DOT that he would be looking into getting snow and ice removal equipment as soon as possible. He said that he would do this because starting next weekend things will get real rough, real quick.

:eek:

double D · #476 Postby **double D** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:24 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The accuweather.com 15-day forecast is calling for rain changing to freezing rain the night of the 14th and then rain mixing with ice on the 15th for Spring, TX.

Also, the latest from JB:

-He said get ready for nasty prolonged cold over the next 3-4 weeks that will make you wonder what is going on. He then said that the first shot (of cold) toward the end of this week/the weekend will have it's numbers beaten like "Scarlett Ohara's mule".

-He said that if he were working at Texas DOT that he would be looking into getting snow and ice removal equipment as soon as possible. He said that he would do this because starting next weekend things will get real rough, real quick.

WOW! JB seems confident about the winter precipation in Texas. I wonder what he sees that makes him think that there will be a lot of snow in Texas? Does he think the cold will arrive before the low moves across Texas? Anyway this looks like it might be our best shot of some type of winter precipation in central and southeast Texas in quite some time (lets hope it pans out).

aggiecutter · #477 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:55 pm

Captain Crunch, it is looking good for us North Texas guys.

GFS(MRF):
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/mrf-sfc.119.gif

Ptarmigan · #478 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:55 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The accuweather.com 15-day forecast is calling for rain changing to freezing rain the night of the 14th and then rain mixing with ice on the 15th for Spring, TX.

Also, the latest from JB:

-He said get ready for nasty prolonged cold over the next 3-4 weeks that will make you wonder what is going on. He then said that the first shot (of cold) toward the end of this week/the weekend will have it's numbers beaten like "Scarlett Ohara's mule".

-He said that if he were working at Texas DOT that he would be looking into getting snow and ice removal equipment as soon as possible. He said that he would do this because starting next weekend things will get real rough, real quick.

I hope we do see snow soon. 8-)

cctxhurricanewatcher · #479 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The accuweather.com 15-day forecast is calling for rain changing to freezing rain the night of the 14th and then rain mixing with ice on the 15th for Spring, TX.

Also, the latest from JB:

-He said get ready for nasty prolonged cold over the next 3-4 weeks that will make you wonder what is going on. He then said that the first shot (of cold) toward the end of this week/the weekend will have it's numbers beaten like "Scarlett Ohara's mule".

-He said that if he were working at Texas DOT that he would be looking into getting snow and ice removal equipment as soon as possible. He said that he would do this because starting next weekend things will get real rough, real quick.

I was wondering if you saw that. Maybe I should go refill my stock of firewood this afternoon?

#480 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:30 pm

Check out the 12z GFS:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml

My cleats are laced ... Lucy has placed the ball on the tee ... and I'm fixin' to start my approach!

Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

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