Texas winter wx thread#4 - big changes on the way eventually

[double D]

That is impressive Portastorm.... As it looks right now (at least for Central Texas) this might be more of an ice storm than snow. It looks like the thickness values aren't low enough to support snow so we could get some sleet or freezing rain out this...just my thoughts. Does anybody else see anything different?

[southerngale]

I'm gonna put out an APB on AFM.

[Portastorm]

I'm gonna put out an APB on AFM.

Agreed. You saw what Jeff Lindner said but that was yesterday morning. I'm most curious to know AFM's thoughts on this situation as well as an update from Jeff ... or even Wxman57 ... or wall_cloud, although I haven't seen him lately here.

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, if the 12z run were to verify, I would get around a foot a snow.

[HarlequinBoy]

What time frame is all this occurring in?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Portastorm, if the 12z run were to verify, I would get around a foot a snow.

southeast texas foot of rain like usual

[double D]

Some interesting tid-bits from San Angelo NWS regarding next weekend:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...AFTER FROPA TUESDAY AND COOLER
HIGHS...50H FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW AS
STRONG STORM SLAMS THE PAC NORTHWEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET THINGS INTO MOTION THAT
COULD BRING SOME INTERESTING WEATHER BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
LOWERING HEIGHTS OFF TO THE WEST. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD AIRMASS
IN THE FORM OF A 1040+ MB HIGH WILL BE DISLODGED AND SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. BY FRIDAY...ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES. THIS IS STILL AHEAD OF MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THAT FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE RED RIVER. SATURDAY
IS WHERE THINGS BEGIN TO GET HAIRY. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY TO MID DAY SATURDAY WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE VERY COLD...BUT SHALLOW IN NATURE WITH 70H
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. SHORTWAVE COMING OUT
SATURDAY SHOULD HELP ALONG WITH THE FRONT GOOD LIFT FOR
PRECIPITATION. AM CONCERNED THAT THE COLD AIR COULD COME IN A
LITTLE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL
START PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AND TRANSITION TO A
MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY. THE MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 3 DAYS HAVE
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO A GOOD CONFIDENCE FACTOR. ALTHOUGH A LOT COULD
HAPPEN FEEL GOOD ABOUT MENTIONING IT THIS FAR OUT GIVEN WHAT I
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. EVEN THOUGH BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD GET QUITE NASTY GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO TALK ABOUT THIS
LATER.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Checking the Saturday Afternoon, Texas NWS AFD's and it looks like most of the offices are on board for the major pattern change. Just unsure about the timing.

[Portastorm]

The 12z run of the Euro continues to look impressive for the arctic outbreak, although the cold airmass impacting south Texas appears to be a little delayed in this run per the developing surface low that crosses the state. This particular scenario looks very promising though for north Texas getting hammered by snow and ice.

Day 6
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_144.gif

Day 7
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

[southerngale]

Texas Stooge, Trek, CaptinCrunch, gboudx? Which one of you is hosting the Storm2k party?

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, that's the million dollar question at this time:"Will the Arctic air be in place before the low passes by." It's just too hard to tell at this point and time.

[double D]

Portastorm, that's the million dollar question at this time:"Will the Arctic air be in place before the low passes by." It's just too hard to tell at this point and time.

Browsing some of the AFD's from this afternoon, it looks like the arctic air will arrive quicker than the models are forecasting (we shall see). One thing is looking more certain is that this cold air means business next weekend. The 2meter temperature shows the freezing line well south of central Texas and -10c near the DFW area. WOW!

[cheezyWXguy]

Portastorm, that's the million dollar question at this time:"Will the Arctic air be in place before the low passes by." It's just too hard to tell at this point and time.

Browsing some of the AFD's from this afternoon, it looks like the arctic air will arrive quicker than the models are forecasting (we shall see). One thing is looking more certain is that this cold air means business next weekend. The 2meter temperature shows the freezing line well south of central Texas and -10c near the DFW area. WOW!

What are you looking at that says that?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is something interesting...

The 18Z GFS shows the 0C surface line reaching all the way to the Texas coast during the AFTERNOON of January 16th. This leads me to believe that if the model is right that many areas will be looking at a high at or below the middle 30s on that day (Including Houston). BRR!!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

Also, before that...it is showing possible snow/ice for a large portion of the state late the night of the 15th into the morning of the 16th:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml

Also, this is what Double D was likely talking about...the model shows surface temps near or below -10C for much of north TX around midnight on the morning of Jan. 17th:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml

The model then also goes on to show highs only in the 20s, 30s or 40s for much of the state during the following days. This certainly has the potential to be a long-lasting event.

[aggiecutter]

For those that have forgotten, or weren't around, this pattern, see link below, is classic 78. The Polar jet is all the way down into the central plains and the tropical jet is in south Texas. This is how you get repetitive bouts of winter weather in the southern plains.

18z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

For those that have forgotten, or weren't around, this pattern, see link below, is classic 78. The Polar jet is all the way down into the central plains and the tropical jet is in south Texas. This is how you get repetitive bouts of winter weather in the southern plains.

18z GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

That is what Joe Bastardi noted in his column.

[JenBayles]

Wow! I haven't checked in here in a few days and now we've got something fun to watch. Whoooo hoooo!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jan. 1978 events in the Houston area:

Jan. 19th and 20th = about a half inch of snow falls across the area.

Jan. 21st and 22nd = Glaze of ice falls across the area.

Jan. 19th to 21st = 65 consecutive hours below freezing at Houston Hobby airport.

Also, according to the Old Farmer's Almanac website, these were the highs/lows at IAH during the mid/late part of that month (Jan. '78):

Jan. 17th
High - 61
Low - 23

Jan. 18th
High - 36
Low - 23

Jan. 19th
High - 36
Low - 25.9

Jan. 20th
High - 33.1
Low - 21

Jan. 21st
High - 30.9
Low - 21

Jan. 22nd
High - 35.1
Low - 25

Jan. 23rd
High - 43
Low - 30

Brr!! A 5-day stretch of highs below 40-degrees is quite cold! Also, 6 straight hard freezes would also be quite an event. If 1978 does repeat itself, then things may get interesting this year too.