Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Aquawind]

Doesn't look to bad for the next 2 weeks in TX.
West TX is below temps but otherwise normal with normal to above precip. Definately more below normal temps overall for the US than recent months.

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus06.KWBC.html

This morning's prelim..

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus02.KWNH.html

[wxman22]

Accuweather allso

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast3.a ... 9&metric=0

[Portastorm]

OK, I'm going off on my "the GFS is cracked" rant. Indulge me or pick apart the logic. Either way, I'm interested in the discussion.

In the 12z GFS run today ... at 108 hours, we see the boundary of the arctic front entering the farthest northern reaches of the Texas panhandle.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

In this same run and 12 hours following (at 120 hrs), the arctic boundary has moved just a little bit.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

And then, 12 hours following this (at 132 hours), the boundary has barely moved if at all:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml

So, this GFS run is suggesting that an arctic boundary of air will barely move in a 24-hr period. C'mon folks ... how many times have you seen an arctic or polar front come barreling down the lee side of the Rockies, pushed by a 1036mb (the GFS is probably a bit weak on the strength of this high as compared to the NCEP ensembles and the Euro operational run) ... and hardly move in 24 hours???!!!

Um ... no ... no, no, no. Won't happen. Forgeddaboudit.

[double D]

Well the good folks from Amarillo think the gfs is an outlier on holding up the front. They think the gfs is too strong with the southern jet on the east side of the low and to weak with the high pressure. The UKMET/EMCWF/Canadian are in much better agreement on bringing the front down faster.

[double D]

Latest from JB:

-He said that the period from Jan. 15th - Feb. 15th could be top 10 coldest 30 day stretch in 50 years!

-Abnormally high amounts of ice and snow should fall across the south and then east during this period.

-"number destroying" cold will work down into the plains later this week.

-Southern plains may get "real ugly" during the week of the 14th.

continues to look like this will be the real deal.

Thanks EWG and Portastorm for keeping us posted from the master himself JB. I know on some other forums he gets bashed quite a bit, but I for one enjoy hearing his thoughts (especially when it involves snow).

[Portastorm]

Latest from JB:

-He said that the period from Jan. 15th - Feb. 15th could be top 10 coldest 30 day stretch in 50 years!

-Abnormally high amounts of ice and snow should fall across the south and then east during this period.

-"number destroying" cold will work down into the plains later this week.

-Southern plains may get "real ugly" during the week of the 14th.

continues to look like this will be the real deal.

Thanks EWG and Portastorm for keeping us posted from the master himself JB. I know on some other forums he gets bashed quite a bit, but I for one enjoy hearing his thoughts (especially when it involves snow).

Sure, you bet! Makes it fun!!

Of interest, David Tolleris of WxRisk (or "DT" as he is referred to in various weather forums) is in basic agreement with JB about the coming MAJOR pattern change. I haven't seen those two competing private sector guys agree very much on anything!! But DT is also a very good forecaster and someone worth listening to, imho.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW! The 12z GFS continues to show quite an intense winter weather system over Texas by early next week...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Morning of the 15th. Cold rain falling in many places as temps. fall into the 30s for most. On the northern side of the rain sheild it is all ice and may be a bit of snow.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _204.shtml
^^Evening of the 15th. After a day where most are stuck in the 30s. The rain is quickly changing to ice, sleet or snow for many in the state. Looks like freezing rain could be a real big problem at this point.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Morning of the 16th. By this point, the model shows most of the state recieving ice with some snow and sleet in areas.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml
^^Evening of the 16th. The model continues to show snow, sleet and freezing rain across the state.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml
^^Morning of the 17th. Yet MORE frozen precip. falls. By this point, most places could be experiencing significant icing problems.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml
^^Evening of the 17th. The model shows more snow in NW Texas, a mix in central and continues (heavier) freezing rains in SE Texas. This has now become a possible emergency since snow and ice has been falling for DAYS now!^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _264.shtml
^^Morning of the 18th. Freezing rain coming to an end, but at this point many areas could be facing dangerous accumulations.^^



Basically, if the model is correct, then next week could feature an ice storm for SE Texas, a mix of snow and ice for central Texas and a snowstorm for NW Texas. Also, the model is showing the winter precip. possibly lasting for DAYS! If this plays out, then we could be talking about a potentially horrible winter storm. Also, if the front is too slow on this model (as portastorm pointed out), then the ice/snow could start even SOONER! This would result in even higher accumulations.

Next week has serious potential to turn into a nasty situation. For the sake of our power-system, our highways and our trees here in SE Texas...let's hope the GFS is wrong! A few days below freezing mixed with no power, slick roads, and snapping tree limbs is no fun for anyone!

[wxman22]

EWG where the 0c line is setup right here would that include atleast Northern portions of Harris county?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228m.gif

[wxman22]

Also this setup is just like the 1997 ice storm with very cold but SHALLOW cold air in place and the southern jet active with multiple disturbances coming through...

[Extremeweatherguy]

EWG where the 0c line is setup right here would that include atleast Northern portions of Harris county?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228m.gif

yes, it would. Here are the 12z GFS surface numbers for IAH during that time period:

Sunday evening (6pm) = 37-degrees
Monday morning (6am) = 36-degrees
Monday evening (6pm) = 34-degrees
Tuesday morning (6am) = 28-degrees
Tuesday evening (6pm) = 28-degrees
Wednesday morning (6am) = 24-degrees
Wednesday evening (6pm) = 27-degrees
Thursday morning (6am) = 28-degrees
Thursday evening (6pm) = 31-degrees

If this run is correct, then IAH should fall below freezing sometime late Monday evening and then remain below freezing through Thursday (finally getting above freezing by Friday afternoon). There is a chance this run could be too slow though, and if it is, then we could drop below freezing even sooner.

This is still a good 7-8 days out however, so things can change. It won't be time to hit the panic button until we are within a couple of days. The potential is certainly there though, so stay tuned...

[aggiecutter]

Don't get up caught up in specifics, just yet. One thing is for sure. The arctic cold is coming and the the southern stream is going to remain very active. Enjoy the next 2-4 weeks because it is rare to see a setup like this.

[Yankeegirl]

Bring it!

[ETXHAMXYL]

I live up in NTX so when should I start stocking up on Bread and Milk? LOL Seems that there is always a rush on those items with just a rumor of a ice storm brewing.
I was in Jr. High during the ice storm of Jan.78-79 and the 12 inch snow of Jan.82. Its been so long here since a major storm like that Im afraid we will be in for some trouble if history repeats itself next weekend/week.

Does this cold hit and run or stick around for awhile? This teacher is afraid our 2 bad weather days might be used up fast.

[aggiecutter]

This cold is going to stick around for a while, possibly into Mid-February. As you can see from the map below, the Siberian cold is already entering the NW provinces of Canada.

Current Temps:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif

[pup55]

Dear Weather Nerds:

Need some help in reading and understanding this model.

Is my interpretation of this correct that the 264h NCEP is also calling for a pretty serious snow/ice event for Atlanta and the SE US?

[Portastorm]

Dear Weather Nerds:

Need some help in reading and understanding this model.

Is my interpretation of this correct that the 264h NCEP is also calling for a pretty serious snow/ice event for Atlanta and the SE US?

Yes ... should this verify.

[vbhoutex]

Dear Weather Nerds:

Need some help in reading and understanding this model.

Is my interpretation of this correct that the 264h NCEP is also calling for a pretty serious snow/ice event for Atlanta and the SE US?

Can't tell for sure, but it looks like the possibility is there. If I remember where Atlanta is map wise it appears to be on the edge of the air cold eough for an icing event. A lot depends on the depth of the cold and at what layers it is above or below freezing.

[southerngale]

Portastorm, I like your avatar!

EWG paints a nasty little winter storm in his analysis of the 12z GFS. The only thing I will say is in my (unmeteorological) opinion, the GFS at this point always seems to exaggerate. So, in my thinking, we won't have days of this and a bad ice storm, like in Jan. 1997 (that was a miserable time), but a milder picture of the 12z GFS, which would just bring snow one day, and then it's cold enough to stick around for a couple of days. Yep, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[Portastorm]

Southerngale, you very well may be right as the 12z GFS run paints an almost historic period of wintry weather for Texas. It would be an extreme event for sure and 7 days out, we're better served by a conservative take on the week of the 15th. However, it certainly is within the realm of possibility with the potential set-up.

Meanwhile, I'm not conservative about my feeling that the GFS is not bullish enough on the spread of cold air for next weekend. Here is what NWSFO Amarillo says this afternoon ... a few snippets:

THEN...LARGE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THIS LARGE UPPER WESTERN TROUGH WILL HAVE CONNECTIONS TO THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. SO A LARGE CHUNK OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BY MID WEEK. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ONLY DEEPENS THROUGH THE LATE PART OF THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN THE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES...SO COLD AIR IS GOING NOWHERE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES. THE GFS MODEL WAS THROWN OUT FOR THIS FORECAST AT IT TRIES TO RETREAT THE COLD AIR TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON SATURDAY...BUT WE DO NOT THINK THAT THE FIRST SURGE WILL ERODE THIS FAR NORTH. SO HAVE KEPT THE IDEA OF KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE.

[Brent]

Portastorm, I like your avatar!

EWG paints a nasty little winter storm in his analysis of the 12z GFS. The only thing I will say is in my (unmeteorological) opinion, the GFS at this point always seems to exaggerate. So, in my thinking, we won't have days of this and a bad ice storm, like in Jan. 1997 (that was a miserable time), but a milder picture of the 12z GFS, which would just bring snow one day, and then it's cold enough to stick around for a couple of days. Yep, that's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I would agree. It would be very unusual to get days below freezing and snow/ice there(as it would here as well). Seen junk too much times on the GFS that doesn't happen. Defintely see it turning much colder though. Put the shorts up and find those jackets!