Potential Atlantic Invest in the works?

[Hyperstorm]

Watch the upper-level low and surface trough located NE of the Lesser Antilles. Look carefully at how the cloud pattern has taken a more comma shape over the past 24 hours and started rotating just north and west of the upper-level low near 20N 55W. That is some impressive mid-level energy in the subtropics during January.

Water temperatures are not that cool where it is located at (mid 70*s at least), and upper-level winds don't generally make much of an influence in the early stages of most transitional systems. The system appears to be in between two distinct jet streams, so it appears that the shear is not touching it strongly at this time (this happened in late 2005 with a couple of systems).

It is not unheard of to see cold mid-latitude systems trying to spin up a weak mid-level warm core during an El Nino pattern (1992) or post El Nino (2003). We'll see what this one does. I do believe though that this has a slight chance of becoming our first Atlantic Invest for 2007...

[wxman57]

I've been noticing that area for the past few days. Looks like it might have a shot at being noticed by the NHC. There's a very sharp upper trof axis over the region now, but that may weaken with time.

[Chacor]

7:05 TWD:

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N55W TO 16N68W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N78W IN THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE
TROUGH...MOSTLY WEST OF 80W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 21N83W...ABOUT 90 NM SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

[JonathanBelles]

what are the chances of it becoming an invest?

[windycity]

now, would'nt that be interesting? I doubt that will happen, but who knows?

[Rainband]

I noticed it last night. It looked better then. I am glad I wasn't seeing things