Most Pro Mets agree pattern change coming

[JBG]

Jeez left wing politics has even infested the science of mathematics and weather modeling. Yes you Sobel and Abrams I am calling you a global warming left wing apparatchik of the enviro left. Just report the damn weather and try and get it right once in a while.

My views on that are well known. I agree.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Dear Friends

Everyone is now astonished by the record warm in the Eastern US in January. Cherry trees are beginning to blossom. It looks like spring.

Well, for some years we have been observing a season to season relationship between temperature pattern in Southern Brazil and Eastern US. In 2006, winter arrived earlier to us here in the Southern Hemisphere with a very cold May that presented July conditions. Remember the record lake-effect snowstorm in October 2006 in New York ? And the recent snow and ice storm in the Midwest late in November ? Well, in July 2006 – our coldest month of the year here in Southern Brazil – we had abnormally record-breaking warm for three consecutive weeks. Just like in the Northeast United States, flowers could be seen two months earlier than expect. The warm weather accelerated crops germinations in the countryside.

In the last week of July a powerful cold blast brought to us very cold temperatures and severe frosts. As the plants germinated earlier in the croplands, winter cultures suffered major losses. In August, two major cold waves impacted us and September was incredibly cold. On September 4th we observed the most widespread snow event in Southern Brazil for September so far in history. Losses mounted in the fruits industry.

What I am trying to say is that we had winter, than spring than a very cold winter during the climatic winter from May to September 2006 in Southern Brazil. It would not be a surprise to see a similar pattern in the rest of this 2006/2007 winter in the Eastern US. As we know climatic models like NOAA’s CFS and the Met Office’s UKMO are showing just that: a very cold pattern for February and March. So, let’s wait.

Eugenio Hackbart
Chief Meteorologist
MetSul Weather Center
São Leopoldo – Rio Grande do Sul - Brazil
http://www.metsul.com

[cpdaman]

i think the definition for abnormal cold has some defintion besides time frame i.e departures from normal i would think it would be somewhere over 5 degress colder than average at a minimum, but thats just an educated guess

[JBG]

i think the definition for abnormal cold has some defintion besides time frame i.e departures from normal i would think it would be somewhere over 5 degress colder than average at a minimum, but thats just an educated guess

That sounds like it makes sense; or at least daytime maxima more than 10 degrees below normal.

I prefer using day rather than night temperatures since growing urbanization may be lifting nighttime lows. Remember New York City hit -12 or -14 in December 1917, then the record of -15 in February 1934, and, to my knowledge, has never been double digits below zero since. On the other hand, there have been days with high temperatures 14 or lower that I remember personally in 1968, 1977, 1982, 1985, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2005

[roebear]

Thanks for sharing that Eugenio and I would be interested in hearing more about your work on the relationship of weather in Brazil and Eastern US.

Roebear

[Stephanie]

Welcome to S2K MetSul!

I too am intrigued by your comparison of Brazil's recent winter and the Eastern US's current winter. It's nice to get a different perspective, especially from the opposite Pole!

[HarlequinBoy]

Welcome MetSul!

[MetSul Weather Center]

Dear Friends

Thank you for your kind welcome.

In recent years we have been tracking month-to-month temperature averages in the Eastern United States and then comparing to or month-to-month seasonal averages. The formula is simple:

December (first month of NH winter) = June (first month of SH winter)
January (coldest NH winter month) = July (coldest SH month)
February (third month of NH winter) = August (third month of SH winter)
March (last month of NH winter) = September (last month of SH winter)

Of course it is not exactly the same behavior, but the pattern we have been observing in recent years is similar. How it played last winter here ?

May (November in the NH winter): Below average temperature with a major cold spell in the second half of the month. Remember the major ice and snow storm in the Midewest last November ?

June: Slightly above average with no significant cold wave.

July: Incredible warm in the first three weeks. Flowers in the fields and gardens two months earlier than expected. Then, on July 24/25 a major cold spell initiated with severe frost and light snow in the hills.

August: Near average but with two powerful cold spells and short periodos of wery warm weather. Very cold on July31/August 1, very warm on August 7th, major rain event around 15, very intense cold spell (-8,1 degrees Celsius) on August 21, very cold around August 28th.

September: Much below average temperature during September. Strong cyclonic storm on September 2nd. Wind of 110 km/h. Worst beach erosion in two decades. Most widespread snow event ever recorded in September on September 4th. Record lows for the last 4 decades in many areas from 4th to day 6 of the month. Warm weather on 14th. Severe weather on 15th and 16th.

Here is a graphic of daily temperature anomalies in Southern Brazil from June 21 2006 to September 22 2006 (see the warm peaks in early July and the cold peaks late in July, on August 21th and early in September). Remember July in the SH is compared to January NH, August equals February and September is equivalent to March).



Temperature in the first half of the winter: 1.3C (2.3F) above average
Temperature in the second half of the winter: 0.8C (1.4F) below average
Temperature during the astronomical winter: 0.2C (0.3F) above average
Number of day with temperature above average: 54
Nimber of days with days below average: 40

Regards,

Eugenio

[Stephanie]

So it ended up being almost split evenly between the very warm and very cold periods during your past winter. It will be interesting to see if we have a large "widespread" snow at the end of our winter as well.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Dear Friends

Thank you for your kind welcome.

In recent years we have been tracking month-to-month temperature averages in the Eastern United States and then comparing to or month-to-month seasonal averages. The formula is simple:

December (first month of NH winter) = June (first month of SH winter)
January (coldest NH winter month) = July (coldest SH month)
February (third month of NH winter) = August (third month of SH winter)
March (last month of NH winter) = September (last month of SH winter)

Of course it is not exactly the same behavior, but the pattern we have been observing in recent years is similar. How it played last winter here ?

May (November in the NH winter): Below average temperature with a major cold spell in the second half of the month. Remember the major ice and snow storm in the Midewest last November ?

June: Slightly above average with no significant cold wave.

July: Incredible warm in the first three weeks. Flowers in the fields and gardens two months earlier than expected. Then, on July 24/25 a major cold spell initiated with severe frost and light snow in the hills.

August: Near average but with two powerful cold spells and short periodos of wery warm weather. Very cold on July31/August 1, very warm on August 7th, major rain event around 15, very intense cold spell (-8,1 degrees Celsius) on August 21, very cold around August 28th.

September: Much below average temperature during September. Strong cyclonic storm on September 2nd. Wind of 110 km/h. Worst beach erosion in two decades. Most widespread snow event ever recorded in September on September 4th. Record lows for the last 4 decades in many areas from 4th to day 6 of the month. Warm weather on 14th. Severe weather on 15th and 16th.

Here is a graphic of daily temperature anomalies in Southern Brazil from June 21 2006 to September 22 2006 (see the warm peaks in early July and the cold peaks late in July, on August 21th and early in September). Remember July in the SH is compared to January NH, August equals February and September is equivalent to March).



Temperature in the first half of the winter: 1.3C (2.3F) above average
Temperature in the second half of the winter: 0.8C (1.4F) below average
Temperature during the astronomical winter: 0.2C (0.3F) above average
Number of day with temperature above average: 54
Nimber of days with days below average: 40

Regards,

Eugenio

So far the pattern is still very similar to our 2006 winter over here.

[JBG]

So far the pattern is still very similar to our 2006 winter over here.

Thank you for your very interesting input. Can you (or anyone) fathom a reason for the close correlation? I do recall that the winter of 1975-6 in the New York area tracked Brazil's, when Brazil had the damaging winter 1975 freeze.

[MetSul Weather Center]

So far the pattern is still very similar to our 2006 winter over here.

Thank you for your very interesting input. Can you (or anyone) fathom a reason for the close correlation? I do recall that the winter of 1975-6 in the New York area tracked Brazil's, when Brazil had the damaging winter 1975 freeze.

75-76 was a cold event in the Pacif. The PDo was very low. But why there is a close connection it its hard to say. Everyone of us heard about teleconnections but it is very interesting to see patterns repeating year after year. By the way, congratulation on your memory. Really, 1975 say an historic hard freeze in Southern Brazil.

[JBG]

So far the pattern is still very similar to our 2006 winter over here.

Thank you for your very interesting input. Can you (or anyone) fathom a reason for the close correlation? I do recall that the winter of 1975-6 in the New York area tracked Brazil's, when Brazil had the damaging winter 1975 freeze.

75-76 was a cold event in the Pacif. The PDo was very low. But why there is a close connection it its hard to say. Everyone of us heard about teleconnections but it is very interesting to see patterns repeating year after year. By the way, congratulation on your memory. Really, 1975 say an historic hard freeze in Southern Brazil.

Didn't the warm phase of the PDO begin shortly after that point? Also, wasn't that a third-winter (for you) La Nina?

I was 18 during that summer, and I remember most major meteorological events from about the "Mayor Lindsay" February 1969 snowstorm rather well.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Yes, the reversal in the PDO signal took place around 76-77. It was a sequence of La Nina winter in the 70's.

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, the reversal in the PDO signal took place around 76-77. It was a sequence of La Nina winter in the 70's.

For snowfall in Houston, I used a stat program and found out that if it is neither El Nino or La Nina and PDO is in a warm cycle, the average snowfall is at its highest and most likely to snow.

[JBG]

Yes, the reversal in the PDO signal took place around 76-77. It was a sequence of La Nina winter in the 70's.

For snowfall in Houston, I used a stat program and found out that if it is neither El Nino or La Nina and PDO is in a warm cycle, the average snowfall is at its highest and most likely to snow.

Didn't Houston get some snow during the 1972-3 and 1997-8 El Ninos, which were quite strong IRRC?

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, the reversal in the PDO signal took place around 76-77. It was a sequence of La Nina winter in the 70's.

For snowfall in Houston, I used a stat program and found out that if it is neither El Nino or La Nina and PDO is in a warm cycle, the average snowfall is at its highest and most likely to snow.

Didn't Houston get some snow during the 1972-3 and 1997-8 El Ninos, which were quite strong IRRC?

There was three snowfalls in 1973. No snow in 1997-1998, however there was that icestorm in January of 1997. I think there may have been a flurry in December of 1996.

[JBG]

For snowfall in Houston, I used a stat program and found out that if it is neither El Nino or La Nina and PDO is in a warm cycle, the average snowfall is at its highest and most likely to snow.

Didn't Houston get some snow during the 1972-3 and 1997-8 El Ninos, which were quite strong IRRC?

There was three snowfalls in 1973. No snow in 1997-1998, however there was that icestorm in January of 1997. I think there may have been a flurry in December of 1996.

I had thought that the 1973 snowfalls were not during ENSO neutral times, and in fact during a PDO Cold Phase. Am I right?