Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[GeneratorPower]

Ice is a big problem for the Southeastern U.S. right now because we haven't had an ice storm in a long time. Trees have a lot of growth that hasn't been kept down by more frequent icing/winds.

Huntsville Utilities has been notified by an outside auditor that it is way behind on its tree trimming. They have been trying to play catch up for about six months but there are a lot of areas that are still behind.

People have also become, ahem, stupider in the past five years, and virtually nobody is prepared for anything. The warm winters we've been having has caused people not to buy even winter clothing, much less storm supplies. It's 60 degrees here today, very warm.

The sillyness is also illustrated by the fact that plant nurseries are selling record numbers of palm trees and other non-hardy vegitation in North Alabama. That's ridiculous. The cold weather will return.

[Portastorm]

Some very interesting and somewhat ominous comments from the NWSFO San Angelo discussion this afternoon:

"MEANWHILE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY DISLODGING A BIG CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR...WHICH WILL OOZE TO THE SOUTH MAINLY DUE TO GRAVITY FORCES."

"THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS FRONT MOVE THROUGH EVEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST."

"BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY."

"WILL START SLEET FREEZING RAIN IN THE BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION THIS TO SNOW AS COLD AIR BECOMES DEEPER. WHILE SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO LINE...PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET."

"LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED WINTRY WEATHER EVENT THAT WILL EXTEND BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD."

[Portastorm]

Using my best Shaggy voice: "Uh-oh Scoob ... the Austin/San Antonio NWS office is on board for a wintry event next weekend."

Scooby Doo: "Ruh-roh Rhaggy."

"LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO GET VERY INTERESTING FOR S TX AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS INTO N/CENTRAL TX SATURDAY AND S TX SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.

HAVE HEAVILY UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LATE WEEKEND WHEN GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY BIASED TOWARDS CLIMO.

HAVE INTRODUCED WINTER PRECIPITATION MIX FOR SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF S CENTRAL TX...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ARCTIC AIRMASS."

[southerngale]

My grandmother lives in Brownwood. I was there in September. Maybe I should go see her again.

Edit: Dang it, Portastorm. Every time I refresh, you've edited again. lol
I know your post mentioned Brownwood a minute ago.

[southerngale]

Oh nevermind...that's a different post. You did edit the first one though.

[Stratosphere747]

Look to Alaska.....

And of course moisture will be the key....

[double D]

Some very interesting and somewhat ominous comments from the NWSFO San Angelo discussion this afternoon:

"MEANWHILE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY DISLODGING A BIG CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR...WHICH WILL OOZE TO THE SOUTH MAINLY DUE TO GRAVITY FORCES."

"THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS FRONT MOVE THROUGH EVEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST."

"BIG BUST POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY."

"WILL START SLEET FREEZING RAIN IN THE BIG COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION THIS TO SNOW AS COLD AIR BECOMES DEEPER. WHILE SOUTH OF A BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO LINE...PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO BE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET."

"LOOKS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED WINTRY WEATHER EVENT THAT WILL EXTEND BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD."

I can't remember where such an event was hyped this much with a week still left to go. I wonder when our San Antonio/Austin folks will jump on board?....Never mind just read your comment Portastorm.

[Stratosphere747]

What you see besides "us" amateurs looking at the long-range models -- some of the local AFD's are doing the same, and in some cases are a bit misleading….

No question that the pattern change looks to be in place, but with portions of Texas the timing is very much the key .

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Using my best Shaggy voice: "Uh-oh Scoob ... the Austin/San Antonio NWS office is on board for a wintry event next weekend."

Scooby Doo: "Ruh-roh Rhaggy."

"LATE NEXT WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO GET VERY INTERESTING FOR S TX AS AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS INTO N/CENTRAL TX SATURDAY AND S TX SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT.

HAVE HEAVILY UNDERCUT MEX GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE LATE WEEKEND WHEN GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY BIASED TOWARDS CLIMO.

HAVE INTRODUCED WINTER PRECIPITATION MIX FOR SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND PARTS OF S CENTRAL TX...BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF ARCTIC AIRMASS."

So the question is are you going to kick the football barefoot or with a snow boot on?

I'm shocked NWS San Antonio is on board this early. Lately they've been the last to jump on board almost any type of major weather change.

[KatDaddy]

Corpus Chrisi AFD chimes in:

GFS AND ECM CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT ARCTIC FRONT OOZING SOUTH ACROSS THE COUNTRY AS THE UPR
TROUGH FORCES VERY COLD AIR OVER ALASKA SOUTH. DETAILS REMAIN VERY
SKETCHY...BUT LOOKS LIKE A RETURN TO WINTER IN A BIG WAY FOR MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT GFS PROGS MAY
BE A LITTLE FAST W/ THE FRONT...BUT TOUGH TO SAY AS THE VERY DENSE
AIRMASS WILL MOVE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE UPR TROUGH. WILL GENERALLY
STICK CLOSE TO THE GFS PROGS OF A SUN FROPA W/ TEMPS REALLY COOLING
OF. WILL ALSO SHOW INCREASED RAIN CHCS (AROUND 40% FOR NOW) SAT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT FOR TSTMS AND RAIN IN ADVANCE...ALONG AND
BEHIND FROPA.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Almost posted the Corpus AFD, but just saw KatDad post it.

I hope the folks in Brownsville don't discount this event like they have almost every event since I don't know how long which includes the Christmas snow of 2004.
JB in his morning blog said a citrius freeze is not out of the question. This afternoon the Brownsville AFD treated this front like a typical Pacific or modified Canadian front.

[Portastorm]

Almost posted the Corpus AFD, but just saw KatDad post it.

I hope the folks in Brownsville don't discount this event like they have almost every event since I don't know how long which includes the Christmas snow of 2004.
JB in his morning blog said a citrius freeze is not out of the question. This afternoon the Brownsville AFD treated this front like a typical Pacific or modified Canadian front.

Like you wrote in a post last night ... and what we have agreed on ... the days of the sharp, perceptive NWS forecasters in Brownsville are (sadly) long gone. Those guys are probably in Boca right now ... drinking daquiris and golfing each morning!

[aggiecutter]

This is not GFS nonsense as Bastardi used to call it. Granted, it may be a little overdone, but all the weather models, pro mets, etc. are all on board on what is fixin to happen the next 2-4 weeks. Over the next few weeks, Siberian and Arctic air will be continually reinforced into the plain states all the way to the GOM. This air will run into a series of El Nino systems in the active southern jet. The last time we had set-up like this was in January-February of 78. This wont be a one and out, or just one bad winter storm. It is a pattern, and it is going to lock in for a while. This is a once in a 30-50 year event.

During the 78 episode, Texarkana had nine winter events, 5 of which were significant or major. As a matter of fact, we went one stretch where we didn't get above freezing for nearly 9 days. I'm not saying that is going to happen, but this is the type of pattern where you can, and probably will, get prolonged winter weather in the southern plains and Texas. The central and northern parts of the state were hit particular hard in 78 and will be this time. Those along the immediate coast could see an event or two, possibly one major one. But, with the polar and subtropical jet in close proximity to eachother, several of these systems will probably phase, causing strong lows to form in the NW Gulf. This scenario would pump a lot of warm air into the mid layers of the atmosphere, causing mostly a rain event a long the immediate coast.

If I were north of and including a line from Austin to College Station, I would be getting ready for some serious winter weather the next several weeks. The I-20-I-30 corridors will be particularly hard hit in this type of pattern. Dallas, Texarkana, Little Rock, Memphis, Atlanta, etc, the winter weather is on the way.

[KatDaddy]

Makes you wonder if a similar pattern created the massive 1895 snowstorm for SE TX. A weak El Nino pattern and strong Arctic blast could create conditions needed for a S TX/Gulf Coast snowstorm.

[f5]

could there be severe weather out of this beacuse there is suppose to be a 50 degree temperature contrast on the red river with upper20s and low 30s for much of Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle with TEMPS pushing mid 70s close to 80 around Waco,Austin San Antonio and points east

[HarlequinBoy]

--
The I-20-I-30 corridors will be particularly hard hit in this type of pattern. Dallas, Texarkana, Little Rock, Memphis, Atlanta, etc, the winter weather is on the way.
--

lol..

[GeneratorPower]

Dallas/Fort Worth has an interesting discussion....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
316 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER INTERESTING FORECAST TODAY WITH QUIET WEATHER FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY WET...COLDER AND PERHAPS WINTER WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND. WE HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ON THE
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE QUIET WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION
WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE WESTERN STATES THE LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN NORTH TEXAS...AS WILL RAIN
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS TO BRING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD LIGHT
RAIN INTO THE COLD AIRMASS. WHILE THERE WAS SOME DISCONTINUITY IN
MODEL OUTPUT THIS MORNING...IT STILL APPEARS WE HAVE A THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHWEST...AND OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER MUCH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...THANKS TO ALL
THEIR STAFFS...WE WILL BRING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH RATHER QUICKLY
IN THE WEST SATURDAY...THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY...AND BY
SATURDAY EVENING WILL BE BELOW FREEZING IN THE NORTHWEST...AND
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT LITTLE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE SUNDAY...WITH WINTER PRECIP A POSSIBILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO BE MORE
SPECIFIC ABOUT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND WE HAVE
KEPT THE MENTION OF WINTER PRECIP TO FREEZING RAIN AT THIS POINT.
AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER IN TIME WE CAN BE MORE SPECIFIC.

AFTER SAYING ALL THAT...WE HAVE TO ADD THAT JUST A MINOR CHANGE IN
EXPECTED LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS WILL HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON OUR
LOCAL WEATHER. IF THE AIRMASS IS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...WE
WILL ONLY SEE A COLD RAIN. HOWEVER...IF WE GET THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SERIOUS WEATHER EVENT.

[KatDaddy]

Here is the first Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2007

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-081100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
300 PM CST SUN JAN 7 2007

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY...BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. WHILE
THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE...IT IS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT COLD
AIR IS ON THE WAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
SATURDAY EVENING...ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS FREEZING
RAIN OR POSSIBLY SLEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS
TIME...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE THREAT
OF WINTER PRECIPITATION AND IT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC
FORECASTS CONCERNING THE COVERAGE...EXACT TIMING...OR ACCUMULATION
POTENTIAL NEXT WEEKEND.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
INCOMING WEATHER DATA AND GENERATE MORE PRECISE FORECASTS ON THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DURING THIS
TIME...PERSONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA TO STAY INFORMED OF THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

REMEMBER...YOU CAN ALSO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND MUCH
MORE ON OUR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It looks like the landscapers and nurseries across the state will be very busy come spring if this outbreak pans out. Not to mention the brush hallers and mulch chippers.

Knowing some of the models get on steroids with their forecasts, but I had to laugh at the Accuweather snowcover model that had snow on the ground for almost the entire state of Texas from Corpus north.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Wow. NWS DFW issuing the SWS this early? It really must look good for winter weather then.