Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[aggiecutter]

Can you say cold:

Ensemble 850 anomalies:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... 92_us.html

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW TX

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WILL BE THE
ARCTIC FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT...BUT THE OTHER MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST
SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM THIS WEEKEND. WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE SO THAT WE CAN ANALYZE ALL THE NEW 12Z RUNS.

Everybody sing....Frosty The Iceman.....

[Tireman4]

Very interesting. The local CBS affliate, KHOU is starting to tout this system this early. They are usually conservative. This really could be interesting.

http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/ ... 91398.html

[JenBayles]

You're right about KHOU being conservative. With Dr. Niel on board, they usually play things fairly close to the vest. At any rate, with or without frozen precip, we're gonna be darn COLD!

[gboudx]

If anyone wants a good explanation of the coming pattern, go and join Accuweather's professional website. It is free for 30 days. You can cancel anytime within the next 30 days and wont be billed. I did it last night. Anyway, If you do join, be sure and look at Bastardi's videos for today, particularly the Long Ranger and the Big Dog. He does a great job of explaining the upcoming pattern and how it parallels 78. The evidence he presents is overwhelming and not hyperbole.

How easy is it to cancel the membership before the 30 days? I wouldn't want to have to jump through too many hoops and wind up getting charged.

[Portastorm]

Alright gang ... here is the latest from Jeff Lindner, one of our esteemed PRO meteorologists. His forecast is both exciting and somewhat frightening all at the same time:

Major upper air pattern change in the works.

Will focus completely on this weekend into next week as near term is quite and seasonal. Large scale pattern amplification begins by Wednesday as deep layer ridge builds into Alaska sending pooling arctic air mass southward into Canada and then into the US. Massive 1045mb to 1050mb arctic high plows southward into the northern Plains with very cold surface temps. (-20 to -30 F) dropping into the northern US. Arctic front per guidance arrives Late Friday over N TX and early Sunday along the coast. Feel the GFS is way too warm post frontal boundary and too slow with its arrival. Will speed up frontal timing to late Saturday night and before sunrise over SE TX as cold dense air mass will surge southward under its own density and the GFS is usually poor with such patterns. Will go with dramatic temp. falls of 20-25 degrees along the front and likely as much of 30-40 degrees from Saturday’s highs. Will need to undercut guidance by many degrees Sunday and onward with temps. hovering in the upper 20’s to mid 30’s from Monday through Thursday of next week.

Precip and P-type:

Pattern appears to be evolving into a classic freezing rain/ice storm event for TX including SE TX from the late on the 15th through possibly the 17th. Arctic air becomes entrenched from the surface to around 925 to 900mb and then there is a significant forecasted warm nose above that layer. This strongly supports a freezing rain event with maybe some sleet mixed in up north and out west. Latest 12Z GFS run is very aggressive with QPF amounts suggesting a significant icing event…accumulations could be quite high with crippling effects (traffic, power, and vegetation). ***See below link of NE ice storm event from 12/29-12/31 06*** P-type and accumulations will need fine tuning up until the start of the event and just a few degrees difference is surface temps could mean the difference in a cold rain or devastating ice storm.

Will need to begin to pay very close attention to the threat of significant ice accumulations next week along with very cold temperatures. Models will continue to fluctuate around with the timing of the arctic front and likelihood of overrunning moisture post frontal passage and hence the forecast will be subject to large changes.

Nebraska Ice Storm Pictures:

http://www.extremeinstability.com/06-12-31-4.htm

[Johnny]

I just got through reading that via e-mail. It would be very nice if the models would start trending for the upper layers to be below freezing so we could avoid the freezing rain. Unfortunately, when Texas gets good amounts of wintry precip, it is usually in the form of sleet and freezing rain. Do I smell a repeat of January of 1997? I sure hope not!

Interesting times ahead!

[aggiecutter]

gboudx, all you have to do is send them an email, canceling your subscription. That is what I did last year.

[southerngale]

SG ... I continue to remain bullish on this event and will bank on the ever-faithful Euro model which continues to blast the arctic front through Texas on Saturday and I still even think it may be a little sooner (Friday night/Saturday morning) than that.

I think many NWS forecasters in Texas forecast offices are hedging their bets right now because this morning's 0z and 6z GFS runs back off on the cold and precip .... model runs which I believe are faulty.

Caution is certainly merited though for the NWS though as there is no need in alarming the public until you have a good handle on the when's (cold front timing) and what's (as in what type of precip will fall) and how's (as in how cold will it get).

Ok, Charlie Brown, if you say so.

I'm rooting for you!

[Yankeegirl]

Well I have to say that I just read Jeffs e mail and I am a little bit concerned... I think I am going to go to the store and get some fire wood and diapers for the baby... I dont want this to be like a hurricane... you know, once they mention it on the news the city goes nuts and you cant get anything? I might get some batteries and candles too... Just in case, its not going to hurt.... the problem is that I get paid Friday!!!

[Tireman4]

I know. When they would alert the Triangle area (Raleigh-Durham) of snow, I swear people were shopping like it would be a nuclear winter. Unbelievable.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I just got through reading that via e-mail. It would be very nice if the models would start trending for the upper layers to be below freezing so we could avoid the freezing rain. Unfortunately, when Texas gets good amounts of wintry precip, it is usually in the form of sleet and freezing rain. Do I smell a repeat of January of 1997? I sure hope not!

Interesting times ahead!

Janaury '97, remember it thundered alot that sunday night into monday morning nothing but white outside broke the outside handle trying to open on my '90 plymouth laser, was living in El Campo,Tx southwest of houston at the time, and it stayed white for about 3 days down there

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am very surprised to see David Paul from KHOU calling for us possibly staying below freezing for a good 3 day+ stretch. It is very rare that you see TV mets jump onboard this early in the game.

[CaptinCrunch]

I am very surprised to see David Paul from KHOU calling for us possibly staying below freezing for a good 3 day+ stretch. It is very rare that you see TV mets jump onboard this early in the game.

Those who do tend to eat "CROW"

[Tireman4]

I agree. Here is a question. I am running the Houston Press 5K, which will begin 20 minutes after they start the Houston Marathon. My query is when will the front get here on Sunday. Will it be early morning (the race-Houston Marathon 7 am, Houston Press 5K, 7:20 am), afternoon or night?

[gboudx]

I agree. Here is a question. I am running the Houston Press 5K, which will begin 20 minutes after they start the Houston Marathon. My query is when will the front get here on Sunday. Will it be early morning (the race-Houston Marathon 7 am, Houston Press 5K, 7:20 am), afternoon or night?

From Portastorm's posting of Jeff Lidner's email on the previous page:

Arctic front per guidance arrives Late Friday over N TX and early Sunday along the coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Houston AFD sounds promising, but they still are leaving out the mention of freezing precipitation in this latest AFD. I think their big problem is that they seem to be basing their forecast more on the GFS MOS guidance (saying they will only go "a little cooler" than it). However, at point, still being 6 days out, I think this is a farily good discussion and forecast and it seems that they may be biting onto this system a little more than they usually do..

IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PD WITH A CHC
OF PRECIP DUE TO A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM IN THE SW U.S. AND
AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE. WENT ALONG WITH THE 12Z GFS...WHICH
BRINGS A STRONG SFC CF THROUGH THE AREA ON SAT NIGHT (A LITTLE
QUICKER THAN EARLIER FCST). THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHALLOW
THOUGH...SO STILL A SIGNIFICANT CHC OF ELEVATED SHWRS/TSTMS BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUN/SUN NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. BIG QUESTION
IS HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVER SE TX ON SUN AND MON. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WHEN LOOKING AT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH
SHOWS A VERY LARGE RANGE BETWEEN THE HI AND LOW MEMBERS. AM A
LITTLE COOLER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS...ESPECIALLY FOR MAX
TEMPS SUN AND MON GIVEN THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A CHC OF RAIN
AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT.

[Yankeegirl]

Accuweather has changed their tunes again... they now have highs in the 50's for next week and no frozen precip, but rain.... Gotta love them... and the flip flops.... but its doesnt look like the models are flip flopping alot... ?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Accuweather has changed their tunes again... they now have highs in the 50's for next week and no frozen precip, but rain.... Gotta love them... and the flip flops.... but its doesnt look like the models are flip flopping alot... ?

the accuweather forecasts are all computer generated and are probably based solely on the MOS guidance (or may be even a special accuweather model). I wouldn't trust them at all beyond day 3. However, they are still quite fun to look at when they show snow/ice.

[Toady1]

Like most folks I have a good memory of the 97' outbreak and ice storm. I might be showing my age a bit....but considering the cold air predicted to arrive, how does it compare the arctic outbreak in I believe 1984-85? I was in Corpus at the time, and that was one of the coldest outbreaks in years...stayed below freezing for I think almost 60 hours, palm trees died, and small portions of the back bay (nueces bay) had a very thin layer of ice. A severe fish kill followed. NOW THAT'S COLD. Can anyone elighten me on this comparison?