Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[double D]

This will be one of the most interesting Houston Marathons on record. The race in 1997 was a bugaboo as well. Race started at freezing temps with hail and sleet most of the way. It could be interesting.Needless to say, the half and full marathoners on my running board are none to pleased right now. Cold weather is great running weather (40-50), but 20's and 30's are not great. Add precipitation and it becomes treacherous. Realize that the marathon will take place from 7am to 1pm on Sunday. That is when they shut down the course( 1pm). Others will continue on, but not with a police presence. My race will take me 20-21 minutes to finish, although one hour for some is not unheard of.

This kind of reminds me of the marathon in Austin last year. It was very cold and there was some freezing drizzle that morning and quite a bit of ice on the sidewalks and overpasses. It was not very fun running in the cold and numerous people were slipping on patches of ice. In fact they had to delay the start because of the ice. I hope it doesn't get that bad in Houston.

What kind of race are you running that takes 20 minutes...5k?

[hriverajr]

Just looking at the Western US water vapor loop, there are quite a few southern stream systems just waiting out there. Just my two cents.

Hector

[Tireman4]

Yes. 5K. My PR is 15:10 ,but that was a long time ago. I would love to break 20, but I am rehabbing from injuries. I am pointing toward the Bayou City Classic 10K.

[Tireman4]

The race will go on regardless of precipitation. The race will only be cancelled if weather conditions present imminent danger to participants. The Houston Marathon has never been cancelled in any of its 35 years.

http://www.houstonmarathon.com

This Sunday may put that to the test. I hope if it is too dangerous (Like 2006 Grandma's Marathon in Wisconsin where the temperatures got up to 90 degrees and the race officials black flagged it and forced folks off the course), they will black flag it.

[wxman57]

Yes. 5K. My PR is 15:10 ,but that was a long time ago. I would love to break 20, but I am rehabbing from injuries. I am pointing toward the Bayou City Classic 10K.

With temperatures so cold, I bet I could break 20 minutes in a 5K run to my car!

[Tireman4]

I bet you could too. Have you ever thought about triathlons Wxman57? They are kinda cool. I am trying my first one in Galveston (Sprint Tri-300 yd swim/12 bike ride/3 mile run) on March 31st.

[wxman57]

I bet you could too. Have you ever thought about triathlons Wxman57? They are kinda cool. I am trying my first one in Galveston (Sprint Tri-300 yd swim/12 bike ride/3 mile run) on March 31st.

The problem is that I'm a diver, not a swimmer, and I'm a sprinter, not a long-distance runner (anything over 100 yards is long-distance for me). But I've biked 100 miles in 4 hours, including 31 miles in one hour.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z EURO looks very cold with a SW flow a loft over the cold air:
12Z EURO:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[JonathanBelles]

00z GFS is now running

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow...

I cannot believe what I am seeing on the news tonight. They are majorly underplaying this event (except for David Paul earlier on KHOU earlier)!

The met on ABC13, for instance, just said, "By next week at this time, we will have highs only in the 50s, may be even lower 50s".

Has this guy not been looking at any models? Lower 50s would even be warmer than the upper 40s shown by the NWS and would be WAY higher than what any of the models is showing.

I have the feeling that some people will be quite surprised when they tune in for the forecast come say Thursday, Friday or Saturday expecting to see highs in the 50s next week and instead see 30s forecasted with the mets trying to throw out a lame excuse like, "the models have mysteriously changed to a colder look".

[aggiecutter]

The 0Z is even slower than previous runs. The front doesn't reach coast until Monday morning. The 12z EURO is about 24-36 hours ahead of it. See link above.

[cheezyWXguy]

the GFS is in its flip-flopping mode...i expect it to be similar to what it was a couple days ago when it showed the heavy precip and very cold temps for all of TX because, I think that is what this storm has serious potential to do...i wouldnt pay serious attention to the GFS until wednesday or thursday...im sticking with the ECMWF for a while

[Extremeweatherguy]

Also...

It is official. The 0z GFS has gone crazy.

It now tries to push the frontal timing back to LATE Sunday evening. This makes no sense at all as I doubt it would take that long. Also, the model really holds back the cold now until at least Monday night or Tuesday (since it shows a slower front). It still shows precip. developing by Tuesday and Wednesday but it is also MUCH warmer during that time period.

The weirdest part about this is that at the same time it also shows a STRONGER high pressure system. Does that make sense to anyone else?



BTW: I agree more with the Euro right now. I think the front should arrive a good 24 hours sooner than the 0z GFS. There is just no way such cold air gets locked up and takes it's sweet time southward. Also, with a stronger high pressure area and precip. I see no reason why it would be warmer. I think at this point people should still keep the mindset of a Sunday morning front for SE Texas and highs in the 30s behind it for a few days with the potential of wintery weather.

[JonathanBelles]

the GFS at hr162 has the majority of the county except the SE below freezing.

[aggiecutter]

The GFS is having problems with the low ahead of the trough. It will correct itself during the week. Meanwhile, the -40 air in the northern provinces of Canada is getting ready to move south.

Current temps in Canada:
http://weather.monstersandcritics.com/canada.php

[JonathanBelles]

wow! it will be interesting to watch the temperatures in canada.

[JonathanBelles]

at 240hr it looks like florida might get some of the cold.

[double D]

The gfs is now even slower than the already too slow NAM. Don't you just love the GFS? As aggiecutter said I don't think the models will have a good handle on the situation until midweek. I wouldn't pay much attention to the 6z either and just wait for the 12z as that run has shown the most consistency the past few days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Despite the slower front, the 0z GFS still shows a major winter weather event for Texas...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml
^^Tuesday morning.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Tuesday evening. HEAVY freezing rain and sleet.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _192.shtml
^^Wednesday morning. HEAVY freezing rain and sleet.^^

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _216.shtml
^^Wednesday evening.^^

I still feel that the time period for this event will be a good 24 hours faster though. Probably occuring between Monday morning and Tuesday evening instead of Tuesday morning and Wednesday evening.

Like double D just said, the models probably won't have a good handle until midweek. We will know a lot more by Thursday or so.

[JonathanBelles]

looks like a snow event to me.