Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm a little confused by NWSFO Fort Worth's comment "all of the models have become progressive with the upper trough."

Which models? All of the GFS runs? Wxman57 already pointed out earlier than the Euro is NOT all that progressive with the trough.

I'm sticking with my football. I'm going to kick that darn thing and unless Tony Romo (sorry Cowboy fans!) is my holder, I feel confident ... THIS TIME ... it'll happen.

I'll hold that football for ya Portastorm!! With my 1993 Thanksgiving Day forecast!!

NWS FTW TX

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY CONTINUED COLD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SLEET MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE NW CWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMLATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE D/FW METRO AREA.

Well we know what happened now don't we?? 3 1/2 inches of ice & snow and Leon Lett costing Dallas the game in the Sleet Bowl.

[wxman57]

I'll hold that football for ya Portastorm!! With my 1993 Thanksgiving Day forecast!!

NWS FTW TX

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY CONTINUED COLD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SLEET MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE NW CWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMLATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE D/FW METRO AREA.

Well we know know what happened now don't we?? 3 1/2 inches of ice & snow and Leon Lett costing Dallas the game in the Sleet Bowl.

We refer to that 1993 event as the "Leon Lett Bowl" ice storm. I remember clearly that the NWS was saying "we just don't see the moisture". Kind of like, today!

[Portastorm]

Captin -- that's great!! We see how well that forecast verified, huh?! Some game it was, too. I remember it well.

57 -- yes .. the Leon Lett Bowl ... I still recall seeing that huge guy bumbling and fumbling around for the football as it slid into the end zone. Ugh!

[Yankeegirl]

The local met here ((not mentioning names)) just said Sundays forecast for the marathon is going to be in the 60's with rain... This flip flopping is giving me a headache!! I guess its all part of the weather story...

[aggiecutter]

It is very possible that temps could be in the 60's in Houston Sunday morning before the front passes. IMO, the timing of the cold is irrelevant, whether it's 24 hours one way or the other is not an issue with me. What happens with the trough after the front passes is the million dollar question. That will determine whether much of Texas and the mid-south get any winter precipitation. Right now, the available evidence is inconclusive. Past experience tells me, and I'm right with the Tulsa met on this, that there will be a light to moderate overrunning situation that will last a day or two. I think it will cause major travel problems but not much problems to the trees and power lines, atleast not on a widespread scale.

[TrekkerCC]

I'm a little confused by NWSFO Fort Worth's comment "all of the models have become progressive with the upper trough."

Which models? All of the GFS runs? Wxman57 already pointed out earlier than the Euro is NOT all that progressive with the trough.

I'm sticking with my football. I'm going to kick that darn thing and unless Tony Romo (sorry Cowboy fans!) is my holder, I feel confident ... THIS TIME ... it'll happen.

I'll hold that football for ya Portastorm!! With my 1993 Thanksgiving Day forecast!!

NWS FTW TX

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY CONTINUED COLD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SLEET MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE NW CWA. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMLATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE D/FW METRO AREA.

Well we know know what happened now don't we?? 3 1/2 inches of ice & snow and Leon Lett costing Dallas the game in the Sleet Bowl.

On that note, does anyone have the FWD discussions (archived) for the Feb 14, 2004 North Texas snowstorm. In my area, we got a good amount of snow from that storm (3" to 4"), and I would love to see the NWS forecast discussions prior to the event. From the NCEP Reanalysis charts on the Penn State EWall site, it appears like the upper low went straight across Texas from west to east (straight through North Texas).

[cheezyWXguy]

Wxman57, what do you think are the chances for the Dallas area to get a significant winter storm?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It is interesting to point out that even though the Houston NWS looks too warm and too late with the front, they do still show winter weather reaching all the way to Houston by next week...

Here is the forecast for Spring, TX as of the afternoon update:

[b]Monday Night: A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.[/b]

[aggiecutter]

The northern tier of Canada has gotten bitterly cold. The cold air should begin its trek south tomorrow. BTW, the NWS out of Shreveport is calling for no precipitation and only seasonal temperatures next week.

Current Temps in Canada:
http://weather.monstersandcritics.com/canada.php

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just saw another "questionable" Channel 2 forecast...

Frank B. was saying that the cold air will probably not really arrive until Monday night and that Houston will likely see all rain next week. He did say some sleet is possible Tuesday morning, but most of it should be north of the city. He also then did say things could change though, but with his graphics you could tell he obviously wasn't too thrilled about any major storms in the making.

[HouTXmetro]

So maybe we are all wrong on this since a consensus from the forecaster are developing.

[JenBayles]

Extreme - you also have to remember Billingsley only regurgitates the AccuLiar Mantra of the Hour. I NEVER pay any attention to that station's weather casts!

[HarlequinBoy]

So maybe we are all wrong on this since a consensus from the forecaster are developing.

Yeah, the forecasts don't look as promising right now as they did earlier, but the models will likely flip-flop once again..

I think it's still way to early to write this event off, and still to early to call it a definite winter weather event.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can't wait to see the 0z GFS. I really want to see if it continues the trend or if it flips back to a colder, wintery look.

[Stratosphere747]

Allot of the questioning is because of the lack of patience. Even with Jeff's last few ominous emails, he ends them like this...

"As with any winter weather threat, timing and moisture considerations are key. Temp and moisture changes over the next 4-5 days will help define the potential threats and large forecast changes should be expected."

IMO, it will be Friday or Saturday before things become better defined. Not afraid to be the negative type of person in here. But the potential of this “possible” storm is nothing to be excited about. The thought of accumulating ice is very much sobering to think about.

Either snow six inches or dream about no moisture…;)

[Portastorm]

Talk about a "Big Chill" ... the 12z Euro at Day 7 has a 1045mb high centered in Iowa.

Check this out:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... +Statement

SWS put out late this afternoon for mainly Ntx. The cold air is coming, as AFM would say-- look to Alaska. But from glancing at most of the discos this afternoon, moisture level is not that confident. Of course that could change.....


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
INCOMING WEATHER DATA AND GENERATE MORE PRECISE FORECASTS ON THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Burn1]

I can't wait to see the 0z GFS. I really want to see if it continues the trend or if it flips back to a colder, wintery look.

Again from looking at GFS etc....It looks like to Sub-Tropical zonal flow will
protect Central and South Texas from severe cold....

Just making an observation...

[KatDaddy]

Wow we get wrapped up when it comes to weather. Bottom line we love it. With that being said the model train drives us crazy. What a challenge it is to forecast the weather as career. I have high respect to the Meterologists who devote their live to weather. The models are an extreme challenge based on time. The current hype brings back memories of Rita.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can't wait to see the 0z GFS. I really want to see if it continues the trend or if it flips back to a colder, wintery look.

Again from looking at GFS etc....It looks like to Sub-Tropical zonal flow will
protect Central and South Texas from severe cold....

Just making an observation...

If you are going to make that argument, then you need to explain it in more detail as to why you think this will happen and where you see this zonal flow coming from.

Considering the upper level flow at the current time is not zonal across the country ( http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _000.shtml ) I am not quite sure how your idea of us being saved by a zonal flow would happen?

Also, this is a very dense, cold airmass we are talking about here. These kind of airmasses typically get sent straight south toward the southern plains. It would take a mighty strong zonal flow to protect us from such a thing happening with this upcoming event and at the time being, there simply is not. And even if there was, this type of airmass would likely still have enough power to charge southward and make it to this area.

BTW: If you want to know what a zonal flow really looks like, then check out this link... http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/g ... alflow.jpg

Now if you compare that image to the image I posted at the top of my response, you can see that we are definitely not in a zonal flow pattern at the current time. Also, according to the models, we are not expected to enter an type of significant zonal flow pattern anytime soon.


P.S. As for yourself in Florida, you guys probably will be spared the extreme cold this time around. So enjoy the mild weather!

I know I, for one, will really be wishing I was there instead of here if an ice storm hits.