Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[double D]

I'm a little confused by NWSFO Fort Worth's comment "all of the models have become progressive with the upper trough."

Which models? All of the GFS runs? Wxman57 already pointed out earlier than the Euro is NOT all that progressive with the trough.

I'm sticking with my football. I'm going to kick that darn thing and unless Tony Romo (sorry Cowboy fans!) is my holder, I feel confident ... THIS TIME ... it'll happen.

That is a low blow Portastorm ...I think cowboys fans will have to hear about this for a long time.

Anyway I'm not going to pay much attention to the specifics of the GFS until Thursday or Friday when we have more model support and maybe then we can reach a consensus on what's going to happen this weekend.

[aggiecutter]

Burn, not even Montezuma's Curse can stop this front. It is heading all the way down to Mexico City. I'm not kidding. Look at the map.

Climate Prediction Center 7 day(Tuesday week)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav.html

[aggiecutter]

Look at day 5(Sunday). The arctic front is a long the coast with a low just south of the Rio Grande and another reinforcing shot of Arctic air entering the country. Joe Bastardi must of drawn those maps.

CPC Day 5(Sunday)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day5nav.html

[JonathanBelles]

i know its a little early but when will the strongest cold blast make its way through the US?

[Extremeweatherguy]

0z NAM is coming in and seems to be faster with the front than in recent runs...

0z NAM for Friday evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

18z NAM for Friday evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

The 0z run has the front entering the TX panhandle by Friday evening while the 18z run still had it in southern Kansas during that same time period.

[Portastorm]

0z NAM is coming in and seems to be faster with the front than in recent runs...

0z NAM for Friday evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

18z NAM for Friday evening = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _078.shtml

The 0z run has the front entering the TX panhandle by Friday evening while the 18z run still had it in southern Kansas during that same time period.

Very interesting post EWG. Given that the NAM is a short-term model, I wonder if this is a sign that the GFS will also be trending with a faster frontal passage and getting a better handle on the actual weather to follow? As many of us have said ... the models should be getting a better grip on things from 72 hrs out of the event.

[aggiecutter]

Here are the current temperatures in the Yukon Territory. The core of the coldest air is located there and in Eastern Alaska. As soon as the area of low pressure currently located in the NW US moves by, the gates will be open for that air to come down into the lower 48.

Yukon Territory Temperatures:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/global/CA_YK.html

Here's the low that I speak of( It is currently located in southern BC-nw US)
http://www.weatherunderground.com/US/Re ... ronts.html

Once it passes(it will by tomorrow morning), forget about the models. Just watch the weather maps.

[southerngale]

NWS in Lake Charles doesn't even have Beaumont below freezing Sunday or Monday night. We were much colder than that in early December. According to them, we won't even get that cold? I thought this was much stronger and we were supposed to get a lot colder. What gives?


Sunday: Rain and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34.

M.L.King Day: Partly cloudy, with a high near 50.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 52.


Those look like fairly normal temps for January.

[Yankeegirl]

This is Houstons forecast...

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 63.

Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

M.L.King Day: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Monday Night: A slight chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[aggiecutter]

SG, you might email the guy and tell him the front is going to make it all the way down to Mexico City, atleast that is what all the weather models and the Climate Prediction Center are saying. I would be a lot of money that Monday night's low is Tuesday's high.

[southerngale]

And Beaumont is usually a little colder than Houston and that shows Houston a good bit colder than Beaumont, but still not as cold as everyone is talking about.

[Portastorm]

Hey SG ... nice sig avatar ... that's the spirit!

Give the NWS Lake Charles folks another 24 hrs to realize what is coming. I suspect they'll adjust. Its interesting to see Houston predicted at 44 Tuesday with falling precip and Beaumont at 52 and partly cloudy. Doesn't match up too well now does it?!

[aggiecutter]

I just looked at the 0Z NAM. It looks a lot like the previous several runs of the GFS. It is making the same misstate with the air on the front range of the Rockies. The answer to the cold question is now in the Yukon territory. Once that air breaks loose late tonight-tomorrow morning, nothing is going to stop it.

[Jagno]

I'm in Lake Charles and now you see why I come to Storm2K to find out what the weather will REALLY be.

[Burn1]

10-Day Forecast for
Houston, TX


Tonight
Jan 9 Clear
N/A/41° 0%


High not valid after 2pm
Wed
Jan 10 Sunny
63°/51° 0%
63°F

Thu
Jan 11 Mostly Cloudy
71°/63° 10%
71°F

Fri
Jan 12 Isolated T-Storms
73°/64° 30%
73°F

Get Tips for Driving in the Rain
Sat
Jan 13 Scattered T-Storms
73°/61° 40%
73°F

Sun
Jan 14 T-Showers
64°/39° 30%
64°F

Mon
Jan 15 Few Showers
48°/38° 30%
48°F

Check Flight Delays
Tue
Jan 16 Showers
49°/37° 60%
49°F

Wed
Jan 17 Sunny
49°/39° 10%
49°F

Thu
Jan 18 Partly Cloudy
52°/36° 10%

Looking at about 10 to 15 degrees below normal High, and about 10 degrees below normal low .... This is a pretty good cool down!

[southerngale]

Burn1, is that your forecast for Houston? If not, could you post the source, please?

[JenBayles]

Quick reminder of S2K board rules:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=74985

Storm2k.org has implemented a new policy for the 2005 season and all seasons to follow.. If you post a forecast in this forum it MUST be preceded by the following..

Quote:
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


If a forecast is made without using the disclaimer we will add it for you and send a reminder PM.. If it is "forgotten" repeatedly your posts will be removed, and your membership with storm2k may be removed as well.. This is for the safety of everyone. Please abide by it

Here is to a safe 2005 Tropical Season!!

Thanks,
Storm2k Management

[gboudx]

Burn1, is that your forecast for Houston? If not, could you post the source, please?

That forecast looks like the 10 day forecast on weather.com for Houston.

http://www.weather.com/weather/print/USTX0617
http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/s ... nav_sports

[wxman22]

Technolly with the national weather services forcast right now there would only be ice for the northern and western parts of the area. NOT Houston proper.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/sectors/hgx.php#tabs

(Go to monday nights weather)

[aggiecutter]

A small snippet from Accuweathers' Joe Lundburgs' column today. This is good advice for all the model watchers: "The GFS is teasing us with storms, then taking them away or moving them, depending upon your perspective. Right now, once beyond the weekend, I wouldn't trust the operational runs of the model very much. Nor any model, for that matter! The details, as always, will become clearer as we draw closer to the time in question." I agree 100% with what he said.