Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually

[Extremeweatherguy]

Technolly with the national weather services forcast right now there would only be ice for the northern and western parts of the area. NOT Houston proper.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/sectors/hgx.php#tabs

(Go to monday nights weather)

That includes a good chunck of Harris county though and would still impact many people (including myself).

[southerngale]

Burn1, is that your forecast for Houston? If not, could you post the source, please?

That forecast looks like the 10 day forecast on weather.com for Houston.

http://www.weather.com/weather/print/USTX0617
http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/s ... nav_sports

Thanks. I never use weather.com for my weather, so I didn't recognize it.

Burn1, don't forget sources when you post stuff like that and then nobody will have to ask. I looked through your posts to see if you had posted a source when you talk about weather in Florida, but almost all of your weather posts and 10 day forecasts were in Texas threads when we're talking about cold weather approaching, and I didn't see a source on those either. Don't you live in Florida?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is Frank B's exact quote from tonight: "If anything, maybe (maybe) some light sleet Tuesday morning, but only a 20% chance".

I think that is a pretty bold call right there. He is basically saying that the worst case scenario is some light sleet in the morning.

Seems to be major bust potential written all over that forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The latest frontal timing on the 0z run of the GFS is about noon on Sunday for the Houston area. I think, however, that there is a chance this is still a bit too slow and it may actually arrive a good 6-12 hours sooner (just because arctic airmasses usually move faster than the models show).

It also continues to show drying for Monday, but by hour 138 (Monday afternoon) it is showing increasing upper level moisture. It will be interesting to see if this moisture translates into precipitation on Tuesday/Wednesday. The model run is currently not out to that point yet though, so I will be back with the latest once it is.

UPDATE: well now the 0z GFS is out to hour 168 and it continues the dry look. Seems odd though, because the upper-level pattern seems to favor some sort of overrunning. Either way..it WILL be cold. Even with no precip. the model is showing a few days stuck in the 30s. (For instance, by noon Monday it still has IAH stuck in the lower 30s. This suggests a high below 40 is very likely for Monday under cloudy skies..due to lots of upper-level moisture..if the run is correct).

**I will post a complete look at the 0z forecasted surface temps. for IAH next week once they come in.**

[Extremeweatherguy]

0z GFS surface temp. guidance for IAH Sunday through Wednesday of next week:

Sunday 6am = 68-degrees
Sunday 12pm = 70-degrees
Sunday 6pm = 55-degrees
Monday 12am = 41-degrees
Monday 6am = 32-degrees
Monday 12pm = 34-degrees
Monday 6pm = N/A
Tuesday 12am = 29-degrees
Tuesday 6am = 27-degrees
Tuesday 12pm = 37-degrees
Tuesday 6pm = 36-degrees
Wednesday 12am = 31-degrees
Wednesday 6am = 29-degrees

Wednesday 6pm = 31-degrees

Interesting to note: Though the 0z GFS shows no precip., the 0z GFS MOS does. It has Overcast skies through Wednesday early afternoon with 20-30% precip. chances during that period (it also shows a chance of ice).

I suspect that the NWS will likely stick to the MOS and keep slight precip. chances there next week.

[aggiecutter]

Model Mayhem on Sunday. The 12Z EURO has the low over the great lakes on Sunday. While the 0z GFS has the low over Central Texas. This low pressure system is causing the models all kinds of problems with the timing of the front.

0Z GFS(Sunday):
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

12Z EURO(Sunday):
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.106.gif

[hriverajr]

Was looking at the 0z GFS and after Monday AM it is looking quite dry. Model is not showing much in the way of precip. The GFS basically just shows initial over running with the front and then gradual drying. It does not really show any strong disturbances after monday or so. We will have to wait and see I guess. As for temps we probably won't get a good handle until the cold air is spilling down the central plains. Some of the models do show some light precip working up from the south after Tuesday Of course all this is opinion.


Hector

[southerngale]

UPDATE: well now the 0z GFS is out to hour 168 and it continues the dry look. Seems odd though, because the upper-level pattern seems to favor some sort of overrunning. Either way..it WILL be cold. Even with no precip. the model is showing a few days stuck in the 30s. (For instance, by noon Monday it still has IAH stuck in the lower 30s. This suggests a high below 40 is very likely for Monday under cloudy skies..due to lots of upper-level moisture..if the run is correct).

If that were to verify, it's not much different than what we had in early December, if at all.

...hardly the massive Arctic blast that has been previously advertised by the models, not to mention frozen precip free.

[HarlequinBoy]

It definitely looks like this is a trend now, in my opinion.


But it's still Tuesday night and things could still change completely.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks more interesting everyday. Some local weather man are saying it might sleet on next Tuesday. Something to keep an eye on.

[TexasSam]

I have been reading all the talk going on here for the last week. It seems like today (Wednesday) is the start of time when we will have a much better handle on what is to come. I like what someone said in another post that this is much like watching a tropical storm. I remember other COLD blasts, what happens in the Houston area is we can't buy electricity from other parts of the Country, and this time of year many of out power plants are down for service. We then deal with the so called "rolling black outs" In all truth that never works right, some never loose power, and others are cut off for about 12 hours. Also everyone lets there faucets drip, and that drops the water pressure, so no one has water, then when it warms up all the frozen pipes that people didn't know burst because of the lack of water thaw start flooding out, so another day or so without water. It always amazes me when this sort of thing happens in Houston how many people don't watch the News, when it goes to 24 / 7 coverage that the roads are iced over and go flying down the freeway, and crash into a pile at the bottom of every overpass. (In Houston the only hills we have are overpasses) I also know that when this sort of cold is coming to Houston the weather service is behind, and for that week in 1988 said that the ice would met in a few hours. didn't happen, and the low's were like 10, and Houston's all time low is +5 . In closing I worry that the people running the Weather Service now days just look at the computers, and are here from other parts of the country. They don't know Houston's weather history. The worst happens here when the heavy cold air slides in here, and we get the over running. freezing Drizzle. I hope that none of this happens, but I'm going to start getting the house ready.

A bit of text from the Austin weather service:


GFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE STRONG UPGLIDE PATTERN
THAT IT SHOWED IN YSTRDYS RUNS DVLPG ACROSS S TX MON AND TUE...
AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ECMWF AND CANADIAN. HAVE PULLED MENTION
OF STRATIFORM RAIN MON AND TUE. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS AND CANADIAN DO
SHOW ASCENT DVLPG ON THE 300-310K SFCS AND GFS VERTICAL CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW OVC CLOUD DECK DVLPG BTWN H85 AND H7 AND DRY LAYER
FM SFC-H85. AS A RESULT XPCT CLOUDS MON AND TUE LIMITING MUCH OF A
DIURNAL TEMP RISE. AND AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...MODELS PROBABLY DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR THAT WILL REACH S TX...AS IS NORMALLY THE
CASE WITH ARCTIC AIRMASSES. AS A RESULT...GFS MOS GUIDANCE HIGHS
LOOK TOO WARM MON AND TUE...AND HAVE CUT HIGHS BOTH DAYS BY 1-2
CATEGORIES.

[TrekkerCC]

Here is the text of the Ft. Worth Early Morning Forecast Discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 AM CST WED JAN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND ON THIS WEEKEND/S WEATHER. GFS NOW TRIES TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU ON SATURDAY AND HOLD THE FRONT UP THROUGH SUNDAY. I DID NOT BUY INTO THAT COMPLETELY AND WENT WELL BELOW GFS MOS ON TEMPERATURES FIGURING THAT IT IS JUST AS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NO WAVE AND FRONT WILL MOVE ON THROUGH. ALSO...NAM APPEARS TO SHOW THE COLD AIR COOLER THAN THE GFS DOES AND LOOKS MORE LIKE AN ARCTIC FRONT THAN THE GRADUAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE THE GFS IS SHOWING. ONLY PUT THE WINTER WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN AMOUNTS/SOUTHERN EXTENT/PRECIP TYPE.

FOR EXTENDED...ONCE COLD AIR GETS HERE IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH DAY 7...BUT ANY OVERRUNNING THAT MIGHT OCCUR OVER THE COLD AIR APPEARS TO OCCUR WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE NO CHANCES FOR MORE WINTER WEATHER AS LONG AS THE COLD AIR REMAINS OVER NORTH TEXAS...MODELS OFTEN FLIP FLOP ON LOCATIONS OF THESE DISTURBANCES. YESTERDAY GFS BROUGHT A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL TX ON TUESDAY...TODAY/S RUN TAKES IT OVER THE GULF. 84

It appears that the NWS is playing it conservative for now. Which is a good strategy, as the models have been a mess for the last few days, right now for my area, they have completely taken out any wintry precip. It appears like the waiting game for the weekend has commenced.

[wxman57]

Two things I'm sure of now:

1. There will likely be some VERY cold air coming down south lee of the Rockies over the next few days.

2. The GFS is absolutiely wrong in driving the Arctic front back to the north as a warm front across Oklahoma on Saturday as it kicks out its bogus lee-side low. The frong will keep plowing southward on Saturday, probably reaching the upper TX coast by early afternoon Sunday (or sooner). Because of this GFS temps for at least Sun PM and Monday are way too warm for SE TX.

Post-frontal precip is a big question. Even the 00Z ECMWF backed off on as much post-frontal moisture but shows much colder air moving into Texas than previous runs. With that kind of cold we (Houston) may see highs in the 30s Monday and Tuesday and possibly longer. Could be low 30s for highs, depending on if there's any sun. Even the EC still indicates a secondary impulse coming across Monday night/Tuesday and maybe another impulse Wed/Thu. The trick will be getting enough moisture for any precip to reach the ground.

I'm less concerned about a significant ice storm anywhere in the Gulf coast states. But I wouldn't rule out that possibility 100% yet.

[Portastorm]

I'll tell you one thing ... if the 0z Euro run here is close to being right ... this is cold air the likes we haven't seen in Texas in quite some time.

Check this out at Day 7:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

That's a 1044mb high sitting in Oklahoma and nearly on top of us!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'll tell you one thing ... if the 0z Euro run here is close to being right ... this is cold air the likes we haven't seen in Texas in quite some time.

Check this out at Day 7:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ECMWF/e ... mp_168.gif

That's a 1044mb high sitting in Oklahoma and nearly on top of us!!

yeah, I think some people don't realize just how cold it could get here. It has been some time since Houston has had an extended period below 40-degrees.

Most people (that are not a member of storm2k) probably don't even know that is coming though because all they see is the local news or weather.com and think that we will be in the 40s for 1-3 days next week and that is it.

[Portastorm]

Agreed EWG ... some major temp busts on the way for some.

Machine numbers from the 0z Euro run for Austin ... Wednesday morning at 6 am, 22 degrees.

[TrekkerCC]

Agreed EWG ... some major temp busts on the way for some.

Machine numbers from the 0z Euro run for Austin ... Wednesday morning at 6 am, 22 degrees.

With low temperatures of twenty-two degrees in Austin, the morning temperatures will probably be in the teens in North Texas. That will be a shocker to everyone, even if wintry-precipitation does not enter into the picture.

[TrekkerCC]

The Ft. Worth NWS office has updated their website with a Special Weather Statement.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 AM CST WED JAN 10 2007
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
600 AM CST WED JAN 10 2007

...ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE IN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

A CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS IS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REACH FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST
PORTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURE DROPS...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS OF OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN THE
AREA INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS STILL NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
INCOMING WEATHER DATA AND WILL HAVE MORE PRECISE FORECASTS ON
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
THE MEANTIME PERSONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS TO STAY INFORMED OF THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

REMEMBER...YOU CAN ALSO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS AND MUCH
MORE ON OUR WEBSITE AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH

[Portastorm]

Hats off to NWSFO Fort Worth for a reasonable and well-worded SPS. They're telling the public "hey folks, it's going to get much colder and be ready but we're not sure yet about any frozen stuff falling." That is better than my local NWS forecasters, who this morning bought lock-stock-and-barrel into the GFS op run and have warmed up temps and backed off on all precip.

Meanwhile, I took a look this morning at the CMC and GFS ensemble runs from 0z. It is interesting to note that half of each show precip for Sunday and Monday in south and east Texas. So ... even the model runs are split down the middle about this potential!!??

All of this to say, stay tuned and I know we all will!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really can't wait until Fri/Sat. By that point all the players should be appearing on the field and we should have a much better idea about what will happen.

For now though...as long as the GFS is questionable...I expect the NWS forecasts to stay on the warm/dry side of things.