Wow...the 12z GFS is really looking cold for TX next week. 2m temps are running below freezing out into the Gulf south of Galveston in the 150-175 hr time frame or so.
If we get any sort of upper level disturbance moving through during that time frame...look out
Brrrrrrrrrr
Texas winter wx thread#5 - big changes on the way eventually
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Significant outbreak of arctic air still forecast this weekend into next week.
Threat of ice has lessened over the past 24 hours.
Discussion:
Arctic air mass is on the move with -40 to -50F temps pushing SSE into NW Canada at this time. Buckling upper air pattern is clearly noted on water vapor images with western ridge building into southern Alaska and deepening Rockies trough being carved out. Arctic boundary should reach Montana and N Dakota early Thursday and then spread SSE down the plains along the lee of the Rockies. I will toss the GFS frontal timing out the window and go completely on experience with such cold air masses. Feel the models continue to underestimate the southward push of the cold dense air and are too slow in the frontal arrival. I hate to flip flop around like the models, especially when it is a known fact that they handle such events poorly and the new 12Z ETA (which is faster with the frontal timing) has sold me to toss the GFS out the window. Will go with the front through N TX Saturday evening and off the TX coast by midday Sunday (GFS thinks it will be late Sunday or early Monday), may even be faster although out of some respect for the GFS model I will lean toward the morning hours on Sunday.
Shallow but very cold air mass overtakes the region for sure by Monday. Will toss all guidance out the window as it is just too warm given the intensity of the cold air to the north and once again go with experience with such air masses. Expected temps. to fall from the 70’s to the 40’s with the frontal passage and Sunday and into the mid 30’s by Monday morning. Will keep very cold temps in place from Monday through Thursday (lows in the 20’s and highs in the lower to mid 30’s even with guidance numbers at or above 45 degrees for highs). With expected lingering clouds I just do not see the diurnal range the models are showing and the upstream snow pack over the lee of the Rockies and plains will not allow for much air mass modification. ECMWF has come in extremely cold in the Tues to Wed timeframe and the latest GFS 12Z run is also looking much colder so I think I am on the right track going with a much colder forecast than currently depicted in the model guidance and local media stations. Expect to see the guidance numbers trend downward over the next 2-3 days as is usual ahead of such arctic fronts (ie same thing happen back around 11/30/06)
Precip:
Starting at 12Z yesterday and continuing through 12Z today the GFS along with additional models have backed off on the idea of overrunning moisture. The key comes in the more progressive nature of the trough over the SW US which moves across TX Sun/Mon before the air at the surface is below freezing. I have seen before where the GFS will flip flop during the middle range of the guidance only to bring back the moisture and precip. 36-48 hours before verification (2004 snowstorm). I am very hesitant to bite on this change, but given that most of the other models also show a drier and more suppressed moisture feed…it appears the threat for significant icing is lessening.
With that said the latest ETA shows widespread light to moderate freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday across N TX and the Hill Country and also slows the upper trough allowing much more overrunning. This is also supported by some of the GFS ensembles which still show moisture around during the Mon-Wed time period. There is also a hint in the GFS of a weak short wave around Wed and the model does spit out some light QPF.
Will need to keep 20-30% chance of light freezing rain in for Monday and Tuesday with possible ice accumulation over our northern counties as early as late Sunday.
As has been clearly proven in the last 24 hour large changes can be expected over the next 2-3 days as the vent draws closer. I would not be at all surprised to see the models shift back to a wetter pattern only to reverse it on the next runs. One thing is for certain…it is going to get cold and stay cold for an extended period. As far as precip. goes it is nothing short of a crap shoot with so much uncertainty with moisture, surface temps, upper air features, frontal timing, and amount of cold air advection.
Threat of ice has lessened over the past 24 hours.
Discussion:
Arctic air mass is on the move with -40 to -50F temps pushing SSE into NW Canada at this time. Buckling upper air pattern is clearly noted on water vapor images with western ridge building into southern Alaska and deepening Rockies trough being carved out. Arctic boundary should reach Montana and N Dakota early Thursday and then spread SSE down the plains along the lee of the Rockies. I will toss the GFS frontal timing out the window and go completely on experience with such cold air masses. Feel the models continue to underestimate the southward push of the cold dense air and are too slow in the frontal arrival. I hate to flip flop around like the models, especially when it is a known fact that they handle such events poorly and the new 12Z ETA (which is faster with the frontal timing) has sold me to toss the GFS out the window. Will go with the front through N TX Saturday evening and off the TX coast by midday Sunday (GFS thinks it will be late Sunday or early Monday), may even be faster although out of some respect for the GFS model I will lean toward the morning hours on Sunday.
Shallow but very cold air mass overtakes the region for sure by Monday. Will toss all guidance out the window as it is just too warm given the intensity of the cold air to the north and once again go with experience with such air masses. Expected temps. to fall from the 70’s to the 40’s with the frontal passage and Sunday and into the mid 30’s by Monday morning. Will keep very cold temps in place from Monday through Thursday (lows in the 20’s and highs in the lower to mid 30’s even with guidance numbers at or above 45 degrees for highs). With expected lingering clouds I just do not see the diurnal range the models are showing and the upstream snow pack over the lee of the Rockies and plains will not allow for much air mass modification. ECMWF has come in extremely cold in the Tues to Wed timeframe and the latest GFS 12Z run is also looking much colder so I think I am on the right track going with a much colder forecast than currently depicted in the model guidance and local media stations. Expect to see the guidance numbers trend downward over the next 2-3 days as is usual ahead of such arctic fronts (ie same thing happen back around 11/30/06)
Precip:
Starting at 12Z yesterday and continuing through 12Z today the GFS along with additional models have backed off on the idea of overrunning moisture. The key comes in the more progressive nature of the trough over the SW US which moves across TX Sun/Mon before the air at the surface is below freezing. I have seen before where the GFS will flip flop during the middle range of the guidance only to bring back the moisture and precip. 36-48 hours before verification (2004 snowstorm). I am very hesitant to bite on this change, but given that most of the other models also show a drier and more suppressed moisture feed…it appears the threat for significant icing is lessening.
With that said the latest ETA shows widespread light to moderate freezing rain Saturday night and Sunday across N TX and the Hill Country and also slows the upper trough allowing much more overrunning. This is also supported by some of the GFS ensembles which still show moisture around during the Mon-Wed time period. There is also a hint in the GFS of a weak short wave around Wed and the model does spit out some light QPF.
Will need to keep 20-30% chance of light freezing rain in for Monday and Tuesday with possible ice accumulation over our northern counties as early as late Sunday.
As has been clearly proven in the last 24 hour large changes can be expected over the next 2-3 days as the vent draws closer. I would not be at all surprised to see the models shift back to a wetter pattern only to reverse it on the next runs. One thing is for certain…it is going to get cold and stay cold for an extended period. As far as precip. goes it is nothing short of a crap shoot with so much uncertainty with moisture, surface temps, upper air features, frontal timing, and amount of cold air advection.
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LAwxrgal
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Thanks for the update, Jeff. Very informative!
What concerns me is that this arctic shot will catch a lot of people off-guard. Remember, save for that one cold shot in early December and of course that cooldown right before Christmas, we've been really warm and really wet. People have been wearing shorts and tank tops. I'll have to tell my sister in Sour Lake to stay warm and prepare for really cold air.
Unlike you guys in Texas, our local mets haven't mentioned this at all!
What concerns me is that this arctic shot will catch a lot of people off-guard. Remember, save for that one cold shot in early December and of course that cooldown right before Christmas, we've been really warm and really wet. People have been wearing shorts and tank tops. I'll have to tell my sister in Sour Lake to stay warm and prepare for really cold air.
Unlike you guys in Texas, our local mets haven't mentioned this at all!
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Andrew 92/Isidore & Lili 02/Bill 03/Katrina & Rita 05/Gustav & Ike 08/Isaac 12 (flooded my house)/Harvey 17/Barry 19/Cristobal 20/Claudette 21/Ida 21 (In the Eye)/Francine 24
Wake me up when November ends
Wake me up when November ends
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Portastorm
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I'm catching a glimpse of the 12z Euro run and it is looking wetter for central and south Texas on Sunday and Monday ... in fact, the Day 5 map looks like points south of a Lufkin-to-Austin-Del Rio line would stand a decent shot at either a cold rain, ice, or snow!! 
EDIT: I should add that the moisture doesn't look heavy ... but it appears to be enought to create some problems if the surface temps are as cold as suggested.
EDIT: I should add that the moisture doesn't look heavy ... but it appears to be enought to create some problems if the surface temps are as cold as suggested.
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cctxhurricanewatcher
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LAwxrgal wrote:Thanks for the update, Jeff. Very informative!
What concerns me is that this arctic shot will catch a lot of people off-guard. Remember, save for that one cold shot in early December and of course that cooldown right before Christmas, we've been really warm and really wet. People have been wearing shorts and tank tops. I'll have to tell my sister in Sour Lake to stay warm and prepare for really cold air.
Unlike you guys in Texas, our local mets haven't mentioned this at all!
They'll start talking soon. Everything is lining up as if this is the real deal.
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CaptinCrunch
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NWS FTW TX
JAN 10 2007
I expect shallow arctic air in here by 7 or 8pm
Low by midnight should be in the lower 30's with precip changing over to freezing rain.
High was at midnight, temps continue to fall as arctic air continues southward.
Things are just a mess by now!!
Anyone want to go skating. High temp upper 20's, if that.
JAN 10 2007
A CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALL OF THIS IS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL LIKELY REACH FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT IN NORTHWEST
PORTIONS. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE TEMPERATURE DROPS...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE DIFFERED IN THEIR
SOLUTIONS OF OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN THE
AREA INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE IS STILL NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WILL CONTINUE TO ANALYZE
INCOMING WEATHER DATA AND WILL HAVE MORE PRECISE FORECASTS ON
THIS POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN
THE MEANTIME PERSONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS TO STAY INFORMED OF THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 68. South wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph..
I expect shallow arctic air in here by 7 or 8pm
Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%..
Low by midnight should be in the lower 30's with precip changing over to freezing rain.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. North northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%..
High was at midnight, temps continue to fall as arctic air continues southward.
Saturday Night: Freezing rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Things are just a mess by now!!
Sunday: A chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Anyone want to go skating. High temp upper 20's, if that.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Jan 10, 2007 3:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TrekkerCC
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jeff wrote:
Precip:
Starting at 12Z yesterday and continuing through 12Z today the GFS along with additional models have backed off on the idea of overrunning moisture. The key comes in the more progressive nature of the trough over the SW US which moves across TX Sun/Mon before the air at the surface is below freezing. I have seen before where the GFS will flip flop during the middle range of the guidance only to bring back the moisture and precip. 36-48 hours before verification (2004 snowstorm). I am very hesitant to bite on this change, but given that most of the other models also show a drier and more suppressed moisture feed…it appears the threat for significant icing is lessening.
Jeff,
First off, I want to tell you how informative these discussions are to me. Even as I am situated in North Texas, your input is very much appreciated. I'm assuming you are referring to the December 2004 winter storm (in North/Southwest/Southeast Texas). How did the models portray the event beforehand? I did not watch the models as closely as I do now, and I was interested to know how GFS/ETA/ECMWF handled the event beforehand.
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aggiecutter
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The answer to your question JS is Montana:
Current Temps:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif
Current Temps:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/ustemp.gif
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wxman57
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I agree with the discussion about post-frontal freezing rain chances diminishing, or at least not being a devasting ice storm. Could be a few problems with icy bridges on Monday night and Tuesday. But I think it's looking more likely we'll see a stronger shot of cold air and less of a freezing rain/sleet threat.
I was noting the GFS's forecast of dew points 6-7 degrees BELOW zero by Wednesday. With a clearing sky, decreasing northerly winds, and dew points that low we could see temperatures dip intot he low to mid teens Wednesday night. Might not get much above freezing for Wednesday's high.
I was noting the GFS's forecast of dew points 6-7 degrees BELOW zero by Wednesday. With a clearing sky, decreasing northerly winds, and dew points that low we could see temperatures dip intot he low to mid teens Wednesday night. Might not get much above freezing for Wednesday's high.
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CaptinCrunch
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NWS NORMAN OK
JAN 10 2007
JAN 10 2007
THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR...ACCOMPANIED BY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN. THE EXACT LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS OF ICE AND
SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM DRAWS NEAR.
RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WEATHER BY THIS WEEKEND...AND LISTEN TO THE
LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THE IMPACTS OF THE ANTICIPATED ICE
AND SNOW.
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Portastorm
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Here's a "gem" from the NWSFO Brownsville office issued this afternoon at 1:50 p.m. ... a clip reads:
"COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK."
*************
If that 1045 mb high is sitting over Texas by early to middle next week as the latest GFS trends suggest ... calling this "cooler temperatures" is like calling the Civil War a "disagreement among states."
"COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WITH OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK."
*************
If that 1045 mb high is sitting over Texas by early to middle next week as the latest GFS trends suggest ... calling this "cooler temperatures" is like calling the Civil War a "disagreement among states."
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I know you are meaning the downplaying of the wording. I was just joking with you. LOL10-Day Forecast for
Houston, TX
Tonight
Jan 10 Partly Cloudy
71°/53° 0%
71°F
Summer Car Care Tips
Thu
Jan 11 Mostly Cloudy
71°/62° 10%
71°F
Fri
Jan 12 Isolated T-Storms
75°/65° 30%
75°F
Sat
Jan 13 Scattered T-Storms
73°/64° 40%
73°F
Check Your Local Event Forecast
Sun
Jan 14 T-Showers
69°/37° 30%
69°F
Mon
Jan 15 Cloudy
49°/35° 10%
49°F
Tue
Jan 16 Few Showers
47°/34° 30%
47°F
Get the Gameday Forecast
Wed
Jan 17 Partly Cloudy
52°/40° 10%
52°F
Thu
Jan 18 Mostly Cloudy
56°/43° 10%
56°F
Fri
Jan 19 Cloudy
58°/42° 10%
This is from weather.com.... So I don't get drilled from a few of you about where this came from.....
OK guys go ahead and belittle this forecast......
Unless it says 15 below and snow it's a bust and they are wrong...lol!
Houston, TX
Tonight
Jan 10 Partly Cloudy
71°/53° 0%
71°F
Summer Car Care Tips
Thu
Jan 11 Mostly Cloudy
71°/62° 10%
71°F
Fri
Jan 12 Isolated T-Storms
75°/65° 30%
75°F
Sat
Jan 13 Scattered T-Storms
73°/64° 40%
73°F
Check Your Local Event Forecast
Sun
Jan 14 T-Showers
69°/37° 30%
69°F
Mon
Jan 15 Cloudy
49°/35° 10%
49°F
Tue
Jan 16 Few Showers
47°/34° 30%
47°F
Get the Gameday Forecast
Wed
Jan 17 Partly Cloudy
52°/40° 10%
52°F
Thu
Jan 18 Mostly Cloudy
56°/43° 10%
56°F
Fri
Jan 19 Cloudy
58°/42° 10%
This is from weather.com.... So I don't get drilled from a few of you about where this came from.....
OK guys go ahead and belittle this forecast......
Unless it says 15 below and snow it's a bust and they are wrong...lol!
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southerngale
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Burn1 wrote:This is from weather.com.... So I don't get drilled from a few of you about where this came from.....
OK guys go ahead and belittle this forecast......
Unless it says 15 below and snow it's a bust and they are wrong...lol!
Who is they? (and nobody ever predicted that anyway)
What makes you think this is correct? I never use weather.com to get my weather, more particularly for weather that far out. They're usually, if not always, wrong.
More curiously, why do you care so much if forecasters in Texas bust?
P.S. When people respond to you and ask a question or two, you might want to try not ignoring them and responding. This is a message board, after all. It's what we do.
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jasons2k
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- Location: The Woodlands, TX
wxman57 wrote:I agree with the discussion about post-frontal freezing rain chances diminishing, or at least not being a devasting ice storm. Could be a few problems with icy bridges on Monday night and Tuesday. But I think it's looking more likely we'll see a stronger shot of cold air and less of a freezing rain/sleet threat.
I was noting the GFS's forecast of dew points 6-7 degrees BELOW zero by Wednesday. With a clearing sky, decreasing northerly winds, and dew points that low we could see temperatures dip intot he low to mid teens Wednesday night. Might not get much above freezing for Wednesday's high.
Low to mid teens would be truly, truly devastating. That would definitely be a landscape-nightmare kind of freeze. I'd surely lose most of my landscaping even with cover & spray. Even traditional Dates & Canary Dates would perish with those readings. They are planted all over Houston....the mature ones planted at shopping centers (and up & down Post Oak Blvd.) cost several $ grand EACH.
Potofino Plaza up by my house would have to be totally re-landscaped.
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Extremeweatherguy
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wow! That weather.com forecast is bad (too warm)!
The scary thing is that most "normal" people (who do not know much about weather) will usually go to weather.com as their first source of information. This will catch a lot of people off guard if that forecast isn't changed in the coming days.
There just seems to be no way we only see upper 40s for highs out of this.
The scary thing is that most "normal" people (who do not know much about weather) will usually go to weather.com as their first source of information. This will catch a lot of people off guard if that forecast isn't changed in the coming days.
There just seems to be no way we only see upper 40s for highs out of this.
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Yankeegirl
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You know J, when I need help landscaping my yard I am going to e mail ya!! I dont have the green thumb, or a hubby who has the time to take care of the yard! I really like those bananna trees for my back yard around the deck, and they do ok in the winter... I had some before, and I would just trim them down ...
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jasons2k
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Burn1 wrote:This is from weather.com.... So I don't get drilled from a few of you about where this came from.....
OK guys go ahead and belittle this forecast......
Unless it says 15 below and snow it's a bust and they are wrong...lol!
All it is is a model output. AccuWx does the same thing. I'd hardly consider it reliable.
We don't need -15F for this to bust...just lows in the 20's which is looking pretty likely IMO.
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