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All I have to say is: FINALLY
000
FXUS62 KMFL 101549
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1048 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007
.UPDATE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE FEW OFFSHORE OBSERVATIONS
AVAILABLE INDICATE SEVERAL WIND SURGES MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF FLORIDA AND THE SE US COAST. THE SURGES ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIDESPREAD STRATO CU FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
ADVECTION OVER THE GULF STREAM. LAND BREEZE FROM THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IS STILL GOING ACROSS MAINLAND S FLORIDA BUT WITH TIME THIS
SHOULD WEAKEN AND A NE FLOW SHOULD PICK UP ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE STRATO CU AND ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY
MADE MINOR TWEAKS, MAINLY TO SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON.
STRASSBERG
&&
.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THICK
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER BEGINNING TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA IN
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW REGIME ALOFT. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO EJECT TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIME REGION LATER TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC...ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATER TODAY IN REGION
OF FAVORABLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE GULF STREAM...
AND GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST BEACH AREAS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS EXPANDING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS MAGNITUDE OF THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. MEANWHILE...SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARD THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING NEARLY OPTIMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
RIP CURRENT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
THREAT WORDING FOR THIS EVENT IN THE HWOMFL.
NO MAJOR CHANGES ON THE WAY IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A
SLOWLY MOISTENING AIRMASS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CLIMB
BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL VALUES. THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFSLR/ECMWF NOW BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT TUESDAY...WITH VERY COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS EXPECTED TO HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE EASTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS BY THIS TIME. WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
MAY BE A BIT TOO WARM IF THIS SOLUTION ACTUALLY VERIFIES.
