TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

aggiecutter · #101 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:02 pm

Here's the current position of the front. I imagine the maps might be an hour or so behind, but it gives you a pretty good idea where it's at. It'll be interesting to see what the front does as it approaches the Red River. If it starts to slow down considerably, then the trough out west might hold it up in Central Texas until the secondary front comes through on Sunday. If it continues on a pretty quick pace as it passes the river, then it will be to the coast by Saturday afternoon.

If that scenario plays out, the Northern third of Texas will get hit with a very significant ice storm. By tomorrow morning, the players should be in position to make a call on what is going to happen.

Current Weather Map:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/

#102 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:03 pm

front thru Guyman, OK and Alva, OK now.

cheezyWXguy · #103 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:07 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest forecast for the Spring, TX area:

M.L.King Day: A 50 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 42.

Monday Night: A chance of sleet or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 49.

The most disturbing time is Monday night. They now are showing a sleet/freezing rain mix with temperatures near 28-degrees and a FIFTY percent chance of precipitation.

Tuesday morning could be downright scary to be on the roads!

You know what I dont get...Why does it say rain or SLEET with a high of 42 in the Houston area, when in the DFW area, it says high 36 with rain?!?...can someone explain this to me?

aggiecutter · #104 Postby **aggiecutter** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:12 pm

Looking at the latest satellite loop, you can see a very strong SW flow aloft over Texas. If the front does undercut that flow, then it is going to mess in Northern Texas. Also, you can see the front on the satellite. It is the milky white heading south in Kansas.

Goes Satellite Loop:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html

Extremeweatherguy · #105 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:13 pm

Frank. B on Channel 2 is trying to say the Houston marathon will be in the 60s with only a 20% chance of rain.

Where is that coming from? 20%???

According to the NWS there will be a 50% rain chance. Also, those 60s are very questionable. If the front keeps up the speed, then it may be more like 40s.

JenBayles · #106 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:13 pm

Just read that about the possible FFW for the DFW area. Noticed too that they punted that decision to the night shift. Guess in all our excitement we're losing sight of some potentially nasty storms before the cold hits.

JenBayles · #107 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:15 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Frank. B on Channel 2 is trying to say the Houston marathon will be in the 60s with only a 20% chance of rain.

Where is that coming from? 20%???

According to the NWS there will be a 50% rain chance. Also, those 60s are very questionable. If the front keeps up the speed, then it may be more like 40s.

Don't forget - Frank B. is the [in]AccuWeather mouthpiece for that station. I lost faith in that station's weather a loooong time ago. :lol:

#108 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:15 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:You know what I dont get...Why does it say rain or SLEET with a high of 42 in the Houston area, when in the DFW area, it says high 36 with rain?!?...can someone explain this to me?

I'm sure you can find many other inconsistencies like that. Don't sweat it for now. I'm having a feeling that we really won't know what's gonna happen until we're about 12 hours in. And even then, maybe not until the precip starts(or doesn't start) falling.

Extremeweatherguy · #109 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:15 pm

JenBayles wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Frank. B on Channel 2 is trying to say the Houston marathon will be in the 60s with only a 20% chance of rain.

Where is that coming from? 20%???

According to the NWS there will be a 50% rain chance. Also, those 60s are very questionable. If the front keeps up the speed, then it may be more like 40s.

Don't forget - Frank B. is the [in]AccuWeather mouthpiece for that station. I lost faith in that station's weather a loooong time ago.

Oh I know. It is just funny to see what he says sometimes.

#110 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:18 pm

JenBayles wrote:Just read that about the possible FFW for the DFW area. Noticed too that they punted that decision to the night shift. Guess in all our excitement we're losing sight of some potentially nasty storms before the cold hits.

Even the local TV mets have been talking about 1-2" of rain Friday into Saturday. We've had a few good soakers recently, so the ground is pretty well saturated. Could be lots of runoff. Let's hope so because we are still in a drought and under water restrictions.

JenBayles · #111 Postby **JenBayles** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:20 pm

Extremeweatherguy, - I remember when Frank B. started with a competing station here in Houston, back in another lifetime. He's actually pretty good when allowed to do his own thinking. You're right about where he is now though: always good for a laugh! :lol:

#112 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:21 pm

Here is the Austin/San Antonio forecast discussion, including calling for a high temperature of 72 on Sunday! Yeah, you saw that right ... 72!

I'm almost speechless at this point ... either this will be a great, bold forecast or one of the worst busts in local history!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
412 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF ALONG WEST COAST WHICH WILL BE
THE BIG WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SHORT
TERM THIS TROF WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE
CWA FRI AND SAT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MEAN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING BIG CHANGES, BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME PROBLEM WITH THE TIMING. THE WRF/NAM IS THE FASTEST BRINGING
THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH COLD AIR ARRIVING
MONDAY. I WENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH IS COMING INTO LINE
WITH THE ECMWF WHICH ALSO SLOWS THE FRONT. SO, SUNDAY WILL BE THE
LAST WARM DAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE AROUND 25 DEGREES
COLDER THAN ON SUNDAY. THIS COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS STAYING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

ONE OTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY FROZEN
PRECIP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SLEET IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE
PRECIP WILL ALL BE RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 62 72 63 73 62 / 10 30 50 50 60
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 61 73 62 74 63 / 10 30 50 50 60
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 56 71 59 72 61 / - 20 40 30 40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 62 72 63 73 63 / 10 30 40 40 50

double D · #113 Postby **double D** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:29 pm

just got back from Dallas and seems like I missed alot. It looks like I need to go back and get caught up on what everyone has been writing.

On a side not just read the Austin/San Antonio discussion and it sounded kind of ho-hum about the weekend.

#114 Postby **jasons2k** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:34 pm

I actually think this is one of those rare occasions when we will see winter precip. in Houston. I will be doing my best on Saturday to prep my plants...might be a lost cause with this one though

Extremeweatherguy · #115 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:39 pm

even stranger forecast from ABC13 this afternoon. He is calling for 49 on Monday and made no mention of ice reaching Houston (just staying north).

He does show lows below freezing and a high of 43 on Tuesday though.

ROCK · #116 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:39 pm

jschlitz wrote:I actually think this is one of those rare occasions when we will see winter precip. in Houston. I will be doing my best on Saturday to prep my plants...might be a lost cause with this one though

yeah it sounds more and more like it. I am still going out to buy some sheets tonight. I strung the x-mas lights out around the pool yesterday. Never to soon to prepare....

Stratosphere747 · #117 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:42 pm

SWS just to the west of Austin/San Antonio. Frontal speed and movement is giving everyone fits. Look for DFW to update this evening for sure.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... +Statement

ROCK · #118 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:43 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:even stranger forecast from ABC13 this afternoon. He is calling for 49 on Monday and made no mention of ice reaching Houston (just staying north).

He does show lows below freezing and a high of 43 on Tuesday though.

thats Ed for you. He will wait until the event is upon us before making the correct forecast...... :roll:

#119 Postby **gboudx** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:45 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:SWS just to the west of Austin/San Antonio. Frontal speed and movement is giving everyone fits. Look for DFW to update this evening for sure.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... +Statement

It appears DFW has dropped the SWS in their CWA. Or maybe their are modifying it and will post it soon. They didn't mention anything about it in the AFD.

Stratosphere747 · #120 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Thu Jan 11, 2007 5:49 pm

I think they are re-evaluating gb. No question IMO that they extend the watch this evening or come out with another SWS soon. Critical to get the information out asap with the weekend coming up.

TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

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