TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Stratosphere747]

I look for portions of our area to be under a watch by Friday evening/Saturday morning.

[aggiecutter]

A lot of the local forecasters are using the models to make their forecast. The models are clueless in this type of situation. By looking at the weather maps and upper level flow, it's becoming more and more obvious to me that the Northern third of Texas is going to get hit with a major ice storm. I dont think the models have shown that solution one time over the past week. Strong SW flow a loft and undercutting Arctic air are the recipe for that scenario, and that is what is shaping up.

[double D]

Just watched KVUE in Austin (Thanks to Portastorm) and he said the front could come through central Texas saturday morning with ice in the hill country. There is some big potential bust this weekend, it will sure be interesting to see how things play out.

[Stratosphere747]

Another indication of frontal speed and location.


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007


NOW...
...REGIONAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...

AT 5 PM...THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT WAS JUST BEGINNING TO
ENTER FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CONSIDERABLY COLDER AS TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 40S AND 50S. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS ARE IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THIS AIR
WILL FILTER INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY.

THE COLD FRONT AT MIDNIGHT WILL BE LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM RED
ROCK TO KINGFISHER TO CORDELL AND ERICK. BY 3 AM...FRIDAY
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE TO WOODWARD AND GAGE.

[southerngale]

Well, the NWS Lake Charles discussion for this area mentions the possiblity of freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday morning, but otherwise, don't act like it's going to get very cold. 30's for lows and 50's for highs. That's much warmer than the front in early December. We had mid-20's quite a few times and highs only in the 30's at least once or twice.

Are they out to lunch on this or do they see something we don't see? That's certainly not the bone-chilling temps being talked about on here and among some private mets.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
416 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY A SURFACE HIGH OFF IS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS. TEMPS BEHIND
THE FRONT DROP AS MUCH AS 50 DEGREES WITH THE DAKOTA`S IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AT THIS TIME.

CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS
HELPING TO HOLD MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

ALSO...LOOKING AT PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AS MARINE AIR STREAMS INTO
SE TX AND SRN LA. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THIS LATEST FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF THE FOG. RAINS WILL CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS MOISTURE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE
FRONT. AT THIS TIME THE LAKES REGION OF SE TX AND CNTRL LA LOOK TO
HAVE PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS NEXT WEEK ON THE COLD SIDE...
30S FOR THE MORNING LOWS AND LOWER 50S FOR THE DAYTIME HIGHS.

[double D]

Canadian cold front? More like an arctic cold front and those temperatures are likely way too warm.

[serenata]

San Antonio KENS5 just said that the cold temperatures will stall out and not arrive until Monday.

[aggiecutter]

There is a very strong SW a loft. That is why some of the mets in south and central Texas think the front will stall or only move slowly southward after it reaches cental Texas.. The models back this up. However, they do a very poor job with shallow Arctic air.

Current upper level flow:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/temp_slp.gif

[double D]

San Antonio KENS5 just said that the cold temperatures will stall out and not arrive until Monday.

That because they are only going by what the models say and spitting out the NWS forecast back to the public. There is no way that the cold air is going to stall for 24 hours just north of Waco and not move south. The models do not handle the cold air very well and this is where mets. need to use their own experience to make a true forecast. Like I said earlier, there will be some huge bust come this weekend.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Just my gut feeling...I am afraid that being too conservative will end up hurting more people. It has been so warm I really don't think people believe the forecasts and to top it off I think the forecasts are way too warm and dry.
I feel it will be far colder and icey than what they are predicting for all of NTX. I think it will also hit sooner than late Sat. early Sunday. People need to prepare with food, water, preparing pipes pets and older people. What if it starts icing up Friday at Rush hour and no one is prepared...going to be a long weekend of people in shock. I am having to wait until Friday to buy groceries because the check won't be here until I get out of work at 5pm. Can you imagine a huge rush at the stores?
I have seen in the past around valentines when it was warm and the forecast had to change to cold and snow in just a few hours without any warning. Sometimes I think they wait until they see it falling before doing any REAL warning. I think this will be a repeat of waiting until its too late. I pray for the elderly and underprepared people. Hope no one is planning to be away for the weekend who hasn't prepared for their outside pets...only to find out after they left of the horrible weather happening back at home.

[Yankeegirl]

well Houston NWS has this on their forecast for next week.... Looks to be some interesting times ahead!!!

Monday Night: A chance of sleet or freezing rain. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain, freezing rain, or sleet. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[southerngale]

If the models back up the front, but it's common knowledge in the weather world that the models do a poor job with shallow Arctic air, then why do a lot of the mets use that solution? If I know it, and you know it, why don't they know it? Or do they just not think for themselves and rely solely on the models? I'm not really criticizing...just wondering. Some of the forecasts for the same area are so vastly different, it's mind-boggling.

Or maybe they're right?

[gboudx]

From what I've read, some of the NWS offices throw experience in with the output they receive from the models. I can't speak as a met, but I can as an engineer who has tools to use as part of the job. We have some tools that we know don't perform very well, but they do give us output and results of a test that we have to report. We caveat the results with our own experiences, but when it comes down to providing a quantitative result, we have to use what the tool provides.

[JenBayles]

... but when it comes down to providing a quantitative result, we have to use what the tool provides.

Aaaahhh... now I get it. Man Serves Machine.

Frankly, I've often wondered just how much good all these models and gizmos have done. People get lazy when they don't actually have to think any longer. Nature of the beast, but it sure would be nice to think that these highly-educated individuals actually looked out the window once in a while.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Just watched all the major DFW 6pm weather forecasts and they all are very close on cold air, moisture and timing. Have the front in on early Sat am in the 50's with rain then dropping to near freezing by midnight and sleet freezing rain on Sunday and in the upper 30's to 40's and dry the rest of the week. One explained that the reason we wouldn't see the frozen until Sunday was because the upper air would be much warmer and the rain falling from the upper area would warm the surface temps up so it would take much longer to cool the layers from the upper part to the ground. MMMMM if they bust they will all bust together. I think we will be getting a different story by tomorrow. What do y'all think?
I'd give him a big kiss if AFM would get on and tell us the whole story.

[Kludge]

I'd give him a big kiss if AFM would get on and tell us the whole story.

You can rest assured that if AFM knew what would happen he would've chimed in already. The fact that we haven't heard from him tells me that the upcoming forecast is not a no-brainer.

{{ let me go ahead and apologize for that. It's just that I had to spend the day in College Station, and I'm a little ragged-out right now. On the bright side, if that doesn't get him to respond, nothing will }}

[GeneratorPower]

AFM showed up in a tropical forum not too long ago and let us know a few things. He's still around and has probably been monitoring the discussion on this board and will post when it will make the biggest impact.

I don't think he likes the childish and snippy bickering that has gone on in the past and doesn't want to take part in such things. Unfortunately, we are missing out on some of his great explanations.

[azsnowman]

... but when it comes down to providing a quantitative result, we have to use what the tool provides.

Aaaahhh... now I get it. Man Serves Machine.

Frankly, I've often wondered just how much good all these models and gizmos have done. People get lazy when they don't actually have to think any longer. Nature of the beast, but it sure would be nice to think that these highly-educated individuals actually looked out the window once in a while.

ROFLMALO....."HIGH FIVES JEN!"

Hey..."The Great, all knowing Brass Monkey KNOWS!"

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am somewhat upset with KHOU 11's evening forecast.

This morning David Paul on KHOU gave an amazing forecast. He called for highs in the mid 30s, lows in the 20s with sleet and freezing rain.

Tonight, however, Mario Gomez gave a ridiculous forecast. Though he mentioned sleet, his temperatures were WAY too warm (as much as 7 degrees warmer than the NWS as well). He had a high of 49 on Monday and 45 on Tuesday. Seems very unlikely considering the amount of cold air (especially since the NWS is also even colder than that).

This really makes me wonder...WHEN will the local stations turn around? Though they all mention wintry weather (which is good to get people prepared), they all seem heavily warm-biased. There are only a few exceptions (David Paul, Cecilia Sinclaire, and the CW39 mets to name a few).

[Portastorm]

In his evening column update ... JB mentioned the potential for ice down along the I-10 corridor and possibly stretching into portions of the Valley.

Heh, this is one of the few times that us S2Kers were all over something long before JB!