TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[gboudx]

... but when it comes down to providing a quantitative result, we have to use what the tool provides.

Aaaahhh... now I get it. Man Serves Machine.

Well, even if it's against our better judement, we know that management will always ask, "but what about the results from the tool." At some point between being a slave with the oars, and becoming the task master, you lose sight of reality.

[aggiecutter]

He also said the deep south was in for a winter bruising the next couple weeks into February. However, he did say an Omega block would protect the Austin area from winters' fury, and they would be sunny and mild the rest of the winter.

[gboudx]

Just watched all the major DFW 6pm weather forecasts and they all are very close on cold air, moisture and timing. Have the front in on early Sat am in the 50's with rain then dropping to near freezing by midnight and sleet freezing rain on Sunday and in the upper 30's to 40's and dry the rest of the week. One explained that the reason we wouldn't see the frozen until Sunday was because the upper air would be much warmer and the rain falling from the upper area would warm the surface temps up so it would take much longer to cool the layers from the upper part to the ground. MMMMM if they bust they will all bust together. I think we will be getting a different story by tomorrow. What do y'all think?
I'd give him a big kiss if AFM would get on and tell us the whole story.

Hmmm....not sure about the rain warming the air. I've always heard about precip cooling the air through the evaporative process as it falls. Someone with more experiece would have to chime in.

[gboudx]

I hope Jeff doesn't mind me posting his email from this afternoon. I notice he hasn't posted it here, which he usually does.

**************************

Winter Storm Watches and Ice Storm Warnings hoisted over WC, NC, and N TX at this time.

Initial arctic surge entering OK panhandle and surging southward much faster than expected. What a surprise!!

Discussion:

Arctic air mass with temps in the 30’s, 20’s, and 10’s moving through OK and KS at this time with secondary arctic front moving through WY and SD with below zero temps. Will continue to disregard guidance on frontal timing and show the front through CLL early Sunday and metro areas between 600am and noon which is much faster than all guidance…however it has preformed poorly to this point and will probably continue to do so due to the shallow nature of the air mass. Will maintain the idea of temps. falling to below 35 degrees early Monday and hovering in the upper 20’s to low 30’s through midday Wednesday which is 10-15 degrees below guidance on highs.

Will onset freezing rain Saturday evening over NW TX and then progress it SE over time reaching our northern counties late Sunday into Monday morning. Accumulations of 1/10 to ½ inch will be possible from Waco to Dallas Sunday and then from Austin to College Station to Huntsville by midday Monday. Freezing/frozen precip. line moves SE Monday as cold advection continues likely reaching a line from Victoria to Wharton to Sugarland to Jersey Village to Kingwood. Entire area may see freezing rain and sleet mix Monday night into Tuesday.

Will have a better handle on P-type over SE TX and possible accumulations Friday and Saturday. Expected Winter Storm Watches, Winter Weather Advisories, or Ice Storm Watch may be needed by Saturday for portions of SC, C, and SE TX.


Public Forecast for Harris and Surrounding counties: subject to large changes

Tonight through Saturday night: mostly cloudy with a 40-50% chance of showers. Dense sea fog possibly at night along the coast. S winds 10-20mph. Lows in the 60’s and highs in the 70’s.

Sunday: cloudy with an 80% chance of thunderstorms…Turning much colder. Temps in the 70’s early falling into the lower 40’s and upper 30’s by afternoon. S wind shifting to the N and increasing 20-30mph.

Sunday night: cloudy with a 60% chance of rain, possibly freezing rain northern counties. Temps. falling into the mid 30’s. N winds 20-30mph,

Monday: cloudy and very cold with a 50% chance of rain changing to freezing rain mixed with sleet. Temps. falling into the lower 30’s and upper 20’s. Ice accumulation is possible. N winds 15-20mph

Monday night: cloudy and cold with a 50% chance of freezing rain and sleet. Temps. steady in the upper 20’s to near 30. Accumulation likely.

Tuesday: cloudy and cold with near steady temps. between 28 and 33. A 40% chance of freezing rain and sleet. Accumulation possible.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the front is through the Oklahoma panhandle and entering the northern portions of the Texas Panhandle. At its current speed, I project it will be to Round Rock, Texas by Saturday morning and stall there for the next couple weeks.

Current conditions:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/cp.gif

[gboudx]

aggie, I don't know what model you're looking at, but the one I'm studying shows the cold air splitting as it nears Round Rock, then merging about 20 miles south of there.

[Stratosphere747]

Update to the position of the front....

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.NOW...
...COLDER AIR IS ON THE WAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH HAS MOVED THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH DALHART BETWEEN 7 PM AND 8
PM...DUMAS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 9 PM...AND BORGER AFTER 9 PM. THE
COLD FRONT WILL THEN HEAD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
10 PM THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SHARPLY. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 9 PM.

[Air Force Met]

I'd give him a big kiss if AFM would get on and tell us the whole story.

You can rest assured that if AFM knew what would happen he would've chimed in already. The fact that we haven't heard from him tells me that the upcoming forecast is not a no-brainer.

{{ let me go ahead and apologize for that. It's just that I had to spend the day in College Station, and I'm a little ragged-out right now. On the bright side, if that doesn't get him to respond, nothing will }}

OK...here I am...guess I've been goaded into responding

Actually, I've been very busy at work and very busy with church. I basically have two jobs and a family...and do a lot of writing in my off time...so I have not had a lot of chance to write much lately. However, I'm at a stoping point now so I can comment.

Well...what I think is it's going to get cold. This isn't a classic arctic outbreak by any means. There isn't any 1055mb high busting down the plains, overwhelming the pattern and there will be a lot of modification with the air. It's not super dense or super cold....so while the models aren't going to have a great handle on it...they aren't as messed up as they would be with a 1060mb high that had -30C temps in Montana. With the overrunning that should occur, we should see ample amounts of evap cooling on Monday and Tuesday and this should keep the air from modifying too much.

I do expect some ice issues / sleet ...especially over the Central / Southern Texas areas (south of San Antonio). The actual line is very iffy right now...all depends on the location of the upper low.

As far as Houston proper...expect ice issues...especially north and west sides....sleet is more likely as it may or may not get below freezing while raining. Snow is pretty much out of the question as there is a tremendoes warm tongue aloft...maxing out at about 5C when the rest of the atmosphere is prime for sleet/freezing rain. To me...looks like sleet is a good bet Monday night and Tuesday morning. Some slick driving conditions on Tuesday for sure. I expect highs in the Houston Metro area on Tuesday to be in the mid-upper 30's...depending on overrunning. The more overrunning...the lower the temps.

[Portastorm]

:roflmao:

aggie, I don't know what model you're looking at, but the one I'm studying shows the cold air splitting as it nears Round Rock, then merging about 20 miles south of there.

Why I oughta ....

Very funny aggiecutter and gboudx ... very funny! Knowing my luck, it'll probably happen.

You guys are too much.

[ETXHAMXYL]

HEY AFM * KISS KISS KISS*** Now don't go telling my hubby I gave you 3 big wet ones or he might just jealous since he only got one today. LOL

[Ptarmigan]

In his evening column update ... JB mentioned the potential for ice down along the I-10 corridor and possibly stretching into portions of the Valley.

Heh, this is one of the few times that us S2Kers were all over something long before JB!

I saw the NWS forecast and there is a 50% chance of rain on Monday night, which is forecast to be freezing rain and ice. Something to really keep an eye on.

[KatDaddy]

Good to hear you chime in AFM. You are highly respected here at Storm2k. You are respected by many and dont forget that my friend.

[Portastorm]

Interesting and I might add entertaining comments tonight from the NWS Houston forecast office:

"LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
OR SUNDAY EVENING. TEMPS OVER THE DAKOTAS ARE ALREADY BELOW ZERO
AND THIS AIR MASS WILL SINK SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 18Z
DGEX...12Z CAN AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
RESULTING IN LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COLD AND BELOW FREEZING OVER A GOOD
CHUNK OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE RAIN...SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN OR ANY COMBINATION OF THE THREE. MON NIGHT THROUGH
TUES NIGHT LOOKS RATHER INTERESTING. IN AN HOMAGE TO QUINCE...THIS
BEARS WATCH. ALL THIS TEXT TO SAY...NO CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST."

[Extremeweatherguy]

that is interesting portastorm. Seems like they are really biting into this one.

Houston looks to very well see it's first ice event since '97 on Monday/Tuesday. Going to be interesting and scary for sure.

[JenBayles]

... but when it comes down to providing a quantitative result, we have to use what the tool provides.

Aaaahhh... now I get it. Man Serves Machine.

Frankly, I've often wondered just how much good all these models and gizmos have done. People get lazy when they don't actually have to think any longer. Nature of the beast, but it sure would be nice to think that these highly-educated individuals actually looked out the window once in a while.

ROFLMALO....."HIGH FIVES JEN!"

Hey..."The Great, all knowing Brass Monkey KNOWS!"

OMG! I almost spewed red wine all over my 'puter! "The Great, all knowing Brass Monkey"!!!

[KatDaddy]

The 97 ice storm was the worst I have ever experienced in N Brazoria County. The branches on the trees were on the ground. However I remember hearing stories from my aunts of the 50s ice storm in Pearland. Every wire between the power poles were snapped. Now that is extreme.

[southerngale]

This met in Austin at KVUE is going against the models and NWS, saying the front won't stall. Interesting video...

http://www.kvue.com/sharedcontent/Video ... &catId=640



KFDM in Beaumont is calling for temps much colder than the NWS... including a high of 35° on Tuesday with 70% chance of precipitation. hmmmm


snippet: A strong cold front will move through our area late Sunday with much colder air taking over Monday into the middle of next week. A hard freeze will be likely by Wednesday and Thursday mornings with lows into the teens in the Lakes Area and lower 20's in the Triangle. Tuesday will be miserable with highs only in the low to mid 30's.

[HarlequinBoy]

000
FXUS64 KTSA 120314
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
912 PM CST THU JAN 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
00Z WRF-NAM IS TRENDING COLDER AND THIS WILL POSE A GREATER ICE
THREAT...WITH A MAJOR ICE STORM POSSIBLE.

WE ARE WORKING ON EXPANDING THE ICE STORM WARNING TO COVER MUCH
OF THE CURRENT WATCH...AND WE ARE WORKING ON GRIDS THAT WILL
UPDATE ALL OF OUR HAZARD GRAPHICS. THE NEW WARNING SHOULD BE
OUT BEFORE 10PM...AND THE NEW HAZARD GRAPHICS WILL BEGIN POSTING TO
THE WEB BETWEEN 10PM AND 11PM.

THE ICE STORM WARNING WILL INCLUDE THE ENTIRE TULSA METRO AREA.

A COMPLETE DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW.
-----

[double D]

The 00z NAM is pretty darn cold,bringing the 0c all the way down to south Texas on Monday(which I think is to late) It also shows a pretty wet Saturday and Sunday for much of central and southeast Texas, if those temperatures are colder than forecasted then we are in big trouble.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey, does anyone in the Dallas area/ any pro mets think that the ice storm warning will be extended in to north Dallas area, such as plano? The previous AFD seems to show the possibilitie...If yes, when?