TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[aggiecutter]

I just checked the latest hourly observation at Paris, Texas. They dropped nearly 20 degrees from the past hour. They are currently at 48 with a wind out of the NW@14. The front is still progressing steadily to the SE.

[aggiecutter]

ETX, I'm in Texarkana.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Should I go out and get some food, fuel and other items tonight? or wait until the morning? I'm about 75 miles SE of Dallas. We are not in the watch just yet and the front hasn't reached here yet. I just don't want to get up and have ice and all and be stuck here without some hot chocolate and chili.
So will it be here before say 8am?
Thanks

I was never good at math story problems Like a train traveling at 70 miles etc...seems like this weather senerio sounds like a math problem.

[southerngale]

Should I go out and get some food, fuel and other items tonight? or wait until the morning? I'm about 75 miles SE of Dallas. We are not in the watch just yet and the front hasn't reached here yet. I just don't want to get up and have ice and all and be stuck here without some hot chocolate and chili.
So will it be here before say 8am?
Thanks

I was never good at math story problems Like a train traveling at 70 miles etc...seems like this weather senerio sounds like a math problem.

Are you practicing in your avatar?

[ETXHAMXYL]

What is an Avatar?

[HarlequinBoy]

It's the picture below your username.

[southerngale]

What is an Avatar?

[aggiecutter]

I just checked the current conditions at Sulphur Springs and the front has gone through there. They are at 50 with a wind out of the NW at 15. It should be knocking on your door as Sulphur Springs is just down the road from you.

[ETXHAMXYL]

OK DUH??? How stupid do I feel....well I'm not a math teacher, I'm the art teacher. LOL I can draw and paint pretty weather maps. LOL Looks like the NWS warning maps have lots of pretty purples and pinks and blues...Im still stuck in the yuky green.

[gboudx]

The front came thru as I walking to my car from Kroger at 5pm. Then on the way home, I drove ahead of it. The temp on my car started at 66, dropped to 56, then went back up to 65 as I drove away from it. My windows fogged up bigtime as I drove through the boundary where the cold air met the warmer and humid air. It was bizarre. All the other cars were having the same problems. Everyone was slowing down trying to see out of their windows. As I sat in traffic, it caught up to me and temps plunged to 44 when I pulled into my garage.

Now we sit and wait.

[HarlequinBoy]

Wow, gboudx, that's crazy!

[Air Force Met]

Well...I think the local NWS offices are continuing to blow this...and not learn their collective lessons.

The models are laying down down some serious QPF over north and central Texas over the next 48 hours and while they are calling for freezing rain...they are calling for .1 - .3 inches...when all the models are looking at 1 - 2".

Another thing I am noticing is the models are still not handling how cold this air is. The 6hr forecast from the NAM was for AMA's temp to be 25F...they were 17F. The frontal placement was also slow by about 40 miles or so...and this is only the 6 hour forecast.

Shreveport has Tyler forecasted for a high of 42 on Sunday...but the front is already knocking on their door and the QPF forecast is for about 2 inches of precip...that is the making for a MAJOR bust...and MISTAKE on the part of those forecasters.

[TexasStooge]

40*F and still raining in Irving, TX.

[rsdoug1981]

Does anyone have an informed opinion as to what could occur in central/north MS? NWS says 35 with rain Mon night, 38 with rain Tues, and 28 with chance of rain Tues night for Canton (20 miles north of Jackson).

Our local media is...well...local media.

[cajungal]

Is this going to be mainly just a Texas event? Is SE Louisiana going to get anything frozen? I think they have our high way too high for Tuesday. TWC has it at 54 and our local mets have it at 50. Sorry if this question has been answered already. I have been surfing back and forth and don't have time to look at each and every post on this thread.

[gboudx]

I notice this tidbit from Norman:

THIS CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE THE FIRST OF THREE MAIN
ROUNDS THAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 48HRS. HAVE
SEEN SOME SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES ALONG WITH A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW
FLAKES. WITH 18Z SOUNDING REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH VERY WARM NOSE
ALOFT... HOWEVER COLDER AIR HAS DEEPENED. FROM THIS POINT FORWARD
WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE A BIT OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

So they are seeing the cold air deepen enough for more sleet than rain. I hope this occurs in the DFW area as well.

[HarlequinBoy]

I noticed Harrison, AR is already 2 degrees below their forecast low of 37.

[double D]

Well...I think the local NWS offices are continuing to blow this...and not learn their collective lessons.

The models are laying down down some serious QPF over north and central Texas over the next 48 hours and while they are calling for freezing rain...they are calling for .1 - .3 inches...when all the models are looking at 1 - 2".

Another thing I am noticing is the models are still not handling how cold this air is. The 6hr forecast from the NAM was for AMA's temp to be 25F...they were 17F. The frontal placement was also slow by about 40 miles or so...and this is only the 6 hour forecast.

Shreveport has Tyler forecasted for a high of 42 on Sunday...but the front is already knocking on their door and the QPF forecast is for about 2 inches of precip...that is the making for a MAJOR bust...and MISTAKE on the part of those forecasters.

Thanks for chiming in AFM....I also noticed all day that the NWS in Amarillo was way to warm all day with their highs. I think tomorrow might surprise a lot of people who did not expect the front to make it until Sunday.

[wxman57]

It's deja vu all over again. I've been forecasting the weather in Houston for 26 years. Every time an Arctic front drops down, the same things happen:

1. Long-range models indicate a possible pattern change that could lead to very cold air and/or freezing/frozen precip

2. Local NWS offices ignore the changing pattern and forecast continued warm in their long-range forecasts

3. Models lose the cold air in the medium range and/or predict it'll stall and move back to the north as a warm front

4. Local NWS offices believe the models and forecast warm temps, though maybe hedge a few degrees lower

5. Arctic air blasts south defying all model projections as far as timing and post-frontal temps.

6. Local NWS offices realize their error as the temperatures fall like a rock and freezing/frozen precip moves in. They hurridly put out winter weather watches and just as quickly change them to warnings

7. Some NWS offices never catch on even then and continue to forecast the front to stall and move back to the north.

8. Front blasts by remaining NWS offices a day ahead of schedule and forecasters try to catch up with the rapidly-falling temps

9. Arctic air settles in, along with freezing/frozen precip.

10. Local NWS offices say that the models were just wrong - sorry!

11. Repeat during each subsequent Arctic outbreak over the next 2-3 decades.

I think that's about it. That's why I haven't chimed in so much today. I've seen it over and over again. Fun to watch. Will any of the NWS mets learn from their mistakes? Maybe. Oklahoma City NWS mets have impressed me with their attempts and their discussions of how Arctic air defies the models, but they were still way too warm and didn't go with their guts or with their experience. Maybe next time.

If any of you actually work for one of these NWS offices, sorry. I know that your procedures may not allow you to actually think about what happened last time and make a forecast that goes against all the models.

[GeneratorPower]

Does anyone have an informed opinion as to what could occur in central/north MS? NWS says 35 with rain Mon night, 38 with rain Tues, and 28 with chance of rain Tues night for Canton (20 miles north of Jackson).

Our local media is...well...local media.

I'm in North Alabama and a lot of my customers are in North Mississippi. I haven't heard anything about winter weather yet. AFM, wxman57, can you help us out?