The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Trying to sleep with windows rattleing, roof popping, tree limbs banging up against the house, dogs walking around WORRIED and BARKING at the noises from the wind....needless to say, it's been a LOOOOOOONG morning!
Wind started beating the house and landscape at approx. 0249 this morning, I've been UP since 0300 watching the system evolve AND stoking the WOODSTOVE
. Temps in the past 1.5 hours has dropped some 12 degrees, winds sustained at a constant 27 mph with a peak gust to 51 MPH....freezing rain at the moment.
Here's the newest AFD:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
FXUS65 KFGZ 121046 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 345 AM MST FRI JAN 11 2007 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG AND COLD PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY MONDAY MORNING. &&
.DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THOUGH NEVADA AND UTAH THIS MORNING. SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING AT THE RATE OF ABOUT 1/2 INCH AN HOUR IN CEDAR CITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH ST GEORGE AT ABOUT 930Z THIS MORNING. THERE IS WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU THROUGH NOON ...MAINLY FOR THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS WHERE GUSTS NEAR 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CHANGE TO A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE 5500 FEET. ALSO A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATION AREAS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM NOT ALREADY COVERED BY THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... EXPECT SIGNIFICANT HGHT FALLS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LARGE SCALE ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT. DIVQ FIELDS SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UPWARD FORCING ACROSS NRN AZ FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL MID DAY SATURDAY. OROGRAPHIC COMPONENT WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG WITH 40-50 KNOTS OF WIND IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER. LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE IN THE EARLY STAGES BUT WILL BECOME UNSTABLE LATER. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEPICTING A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT IN SATURATED LAYERS INITIALLY NOT REACHING INTO THE -10 TO -20C REGION WHERE THE ICE AND SNOW GROWTH PROCESS CAN BE ENHANCED. BY SATURDAY MORNING...A DEEP COLD POOL AND SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE BNDY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE SATURATED LAYER TO EXTEND UPWARD INTO THIS FAVORED SNOW PRODUCTION REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION...STRONG OROGRAPHICS... AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE LATEST GFS FORECAST INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIP BAND LOCATED OVER WESTERN COCONINO AND NW YAVAPAI COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SNOW. EARLIER SHIFT ISSUED A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN AZ FROM NOON FRIDAY THROUGH NOON SATURDAY. NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THIS FOR NOW. LONG TERM...VERY COLD AND DRY AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY LEADING TO THE COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY MONDAY MORNING. A DRY SHORT WAVE CLIPS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE ON MONDAY AND WILL REINFORCE THE COLD AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 6000 FEET WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOK at the LOWS for SATURDAY NIGHT 
