TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Air Force Met]

Actually, I think the 06Z NAM had the front through Waco this evening. Can't use the thickness lines, have to use low-level winds.

Here's the 00Z NAM 1000mb streamline forecast valid 9pm Saturday. It shows the front over downtown Houston. After then, though, it moves the front north into Montgomery County until Sunday night:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/NAM.gif

Here's the 06Z NAM from yesterday showing the front very near Waco. It wasn't that far off:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/nam06z.gif

Yeah...the 06z was better.

I'm not looking at the thickness either...I'm looking at the extrapolated text data...

The 12/00Z run had 3 knot winds at the sfc for 18Z tomorrow from the north...and 51 degrees. That will be a major bust. The 06z temp was 60F.

FOr the 12z run...the windshift was about 4 hours off...but it was showing 1 knot at the sfc at 06z tonight. Right now it is about 15. IT was also showing 56F...it's 43F. So...it was OK with timing...but the gradient was way off (which affects downrange timing) and the temps were out the window.

Bottom line...the front is booking it and will be in houston tomorrow....even though the ETA shows it trying to come through but stalling....waiting on a secondary surge.

I believe the secondary surge will just pump more cold air in.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NWS will probably be forced to give into the obvious by tomorrow morning (I would hope..or the afternoon at the latest) when they realize the front is already here. Going to be an interesting day for sure watching the forecasts quickly change.

I bet a lot of marathon runners will be surprised on Sunday morning though after watching Frank B. show temps. in the 60s with a 20-40% chance of rain for the last few days. If the front does come through tomorrow, then the marathon seems to likely be in the 30s or 40s.

[Portastorm]

Just took a look at the Texas mesonet and judging from the wind direction, I'd say the front at 11:30 pm was about 40-50 miles north of us in Austin. Fropa here should be around 2-3 a.m. Amazing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I'm am literly angry at our on air "Mets" here in Corpus tonight. Two of them that are the weekend Mets that are subing for the regular Mets on two different stations both said the front will come in Monday and we would only have to worry about MAYBE some Sleet on Tuesday and Wed. If they would have only checked in with NWS CRP before they went on air, the would have noticed they are thinking about ICE STORM WATCHES for Monday!!! I am afraid alot of folks are going to be caught off guard when this front comes in Sunday evening at the very latest and the freezing stuff gets started Monday thanks to these guys at our local TV stations.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
914 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

.UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE FIRST PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH PASSING S/W
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS FAR ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. TEMPS AND WINDS ARE ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLE AND HAVE BACKED MORE TO THE
EAST...WHICH IS OPTIMAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP. A MWS HAS ALREADY
BEEN ISSUED TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT.

FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS ALREADY MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. THE NAM
HAS BEEN HANDLING THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THE BEST AND THE LATEST 00Z NAM
PUSHES THE FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY BY MORNING. THE
DENSE SHALLOW SFC BNDRY MAY APPROACH OUR NORTHERN CWA SAT
NIGHT...WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...HOWEVER THE 00Z RUNS STILL STALL
THE FRONT OR BACK IT UP ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS.

POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER IS ON THE INCREASE. 00Z NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND ETA MOS SUPPORT A FREEZING RAIN EPISODE MON-MON NGT
OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL BEND. LATEST ETA MOS FCST FOR MONDAY AT
CRP/VCT REFLECTS AFTN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S VCT TO LOWER 30S
CRP. IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AS FCST AND QPF OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH
VERIFIES...AN ICE STORM WATCH WOULD BE NECESSARY. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS VERY CLOSELY.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Just took a look at the Texas mesonet and judging from the wind direction, I'd say the front at 11:30 pm was about 40-50 miles north of us in Austin. Fropa here should be around 2-3 a.m. Amazing.

Heck, the way this thing is moving, it might just clear the state by Sunday morning.

[Air Force Met]

Just took a look at the Texas mesonet and judging from the wind direction, I'd say the front at 11:30 pm was about 40-50 miles north of us in Austin. Fropa here should be around 2-3 a.m. Amazing.

Heck, the way this thing is moving, it might just clear the state by Sunday morning.

If it doesn't slow down...it should be through Houston by noon...

[aggiecutter]

I was just looking at the 0Z GFS. It pumps copious amounts of moisture into the central and NE part of the state, but keeps the surface freezing line north of Dallas until the precip ends on Tuesday.

[Chicky]

Weather Cams online:Colorado and Oklahoma:
http://www.webcamplaza.net/cams/weatheralert.html

[aggiecutter]

Point Forecast: Round Rock, TX

The front is approaching the CWA and will stall just the north of the area at 3:00am. According to the JBM model, the front will remain stationary for the next 3 weeks.

[Yankeegirl]

OK... So just a weather question in general... So if the front does in fact pass the area much earlier than it was supposed to, what does that mean to us? I understand that the temps are going to be cooler sooner, but does it effect the ice storm? If it does pass a day early is there still going to be enough cold air to make the ice storm "stick"? I know this might be a stupid question, but its been bugging me...

[Bunkertor]

Now your weather gets weird, too. Yesterday night i stood outside, smoking, only a pullover on. He had about 8 bft. and i didn´t feel cold...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston NWS has significantly sped up the front this morning. They are now calling for it to reach I-10 by this late this afternoon or evening! The coldest air, however (according to them), will still not arrive until late in the weekend/early next week when the main surge sinks southward. Never the less, highs for Sunday are now a good 20-degrees colder than once thought.

Also, here is the paragraph from the AFD discussing winter weather:

THE COLDEST AIR STILL WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN SURGE SPILLS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. FROM CANADA. THIS IS WHEN OUR PROBLEMS REALLY BEGIN SINCE
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ARE FCST TO CONTINUE AS SURFACE TEMPS
FALL FURTHER. GETTING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT WINTERY/ICY PRECIP
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SE TX BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...THEN MONDAY EVENING, TUES MORNING,
TUES NIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA - WITH THE EXCEPTION
BEING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOOKS LIKE IT`LL START AS RAIN/FREEZING
RAIN THEN TRANSITION INTO A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
MONDAY NIGHT, TUE MORNING AND TUE NIGHT. WE COULD THEORETICALLY
ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS NRN ZONES IF
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THIS FAR OUT...BUT IT ISN`T JUST YET. BUT IF THE
SAME TRENDS CONTINUE WE WILL PROBABLY END UP NEEDING ONE. WILL GIVE
PLENTY OF NOTICE BUT FEEL IT`S TOO EARLY RIGHT NOW CONSIDERING THE
MARGINAL CONFIDENCE LEVEL. MODELS TRENDING THE BULK OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIP INTO THE SOUTHERN 2/3 BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. SO THEY MAY
BECOME WORSE OFF THAN THE NORTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES.

[southerngale]

As Houston NWS becomes increasingly concerned, Lake Charles NWS has taken most of the freezing rain chances out of our forecast and replaced it with just rain (except for Wednesday during the day where they have a 40% chance of freezing rain along with our highest high of the week so far at 45°)
I'd post why, but they haven't done an update yet this morning, and last night's discussion didn't even mention the front, but concentrated on the overnight fog, well, the lack of fog. From yesterday afternoon's discussion though, they were still expecting the front to move through in the early morning hours on Monday.

Houston NWS has Devers, Tx. at 60% wintry mix for Monday night and Tuesday, 30% wintry mix for Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Just 10 miles down the road, Lake Charles NWS has Nome, TX at 80% rain Monday night and 50% rain Tuesday, 50% rain Tuesday night, and 40% freezing rain on Wednesday.

They are just 10 miles apart, west to east. Somehow, I don't think they'll both be right....and why don't they coordinate with each other? This just looks plain silly! Look up both cities on NWS.

[Kelarie]

Hmmmm....maybe they are starting to come on board???


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
438 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SEE A DETERIORATION TO WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL SURGE OF POLAR AIR HAS ENTERED INTO THE AREA`S NORTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING FORCING US TO RECONSIDER TODAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE TROPICAL TAP WILL CONTINUE ALOFT TODAY COMBINING BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE SOURCES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..SOME OVERRUNNING THE INITIAL SHALLOW COLD SURGE. CONTINUED OVERRUNNING TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SHOWERS. OVERRUNNING CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE ARRIVING BRINGING COLDER AIR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS READINGS DROP, BY LATE EVENING SUNDAY, RAIN WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION, LIKELY EXPANDING SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO COVER MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10. AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY, THIS IS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE COULD OCCUR. A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF SUBSEQUENT MODELS SUGGEST THE SAME TREND. FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN EXPANDING INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND SOME OF THIS WILL BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET ACCORDING TO FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS WINTER WEATHER EPISODE WILL BE IN ITS WANING STAGES AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH, BUT NOT BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS OVER TO SNOW PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE DRY COLD RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BUT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.

[southerngale]

As I was posting above, Lake Charles NWS put out their discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING VERY SLOW PROGRESS OUT
OF NORTH TEXAS AND INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT
WILL LIKELY SLOW THIS FRONT SOME MORE. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST TONIGHT,
DELAYING FRONTAL PASSAGE BY UP TO 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT IS
FINALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A VERY SHARP 30 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
ACROSS THIS FRONT AND AM EXPECTING MONDAY TEMPERATURES NOT TO
EXCEED THE LOWS OF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...INDEED TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FREE FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S BY TUESDAY. A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
CONVEYOR BELT FLOW ABOVE THE DENSE COLD AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN PRECIP
OVER THE COLD AIR. SINCE SUFFICIENT WARM AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
PRECIP LIQUID, THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ZONES ON TUESDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...USED NAM FOR FRONTAL MOVEMENT WHICH IS A BIT FASTER
THAN THE GFS. WILL NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR
TUESDAY AND SUBFREEZING TEMP TIMES TO DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF
THE FREEZING PRECIP. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED. WE
WILL UPDATE THE SPS ON THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR THE LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

Their timing is way different than other NWS offices and at least one local station here.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Front is passing through College Station right now. They have quickly dropped from the upper 60s into the middle 50s and winds have switched around to the NW.

Also, it has gone through Austin as well. They are now in the 40s there.

[TexasStooge]

The National Weather Service has extended and enlarged the ICE STORM WARNING to cover the western 2/3rds of North Texas including the entire DFW area until 6:00AM CST Monday. The NWS has also issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for areas along a Paris, Greenville, Terrell, Kaufman, Glenn Heights, Waxahachie, Hillsboro line. More of this can be read here.

The DFW Metroplex is nearing its freezing mark at this hour as temperatures continue to plunge to the lower 30s.

NWS Forecasts:

DALLAS/FORT WORTH
Today: 31°F | 31°F
Sunday: 31°F | 25°F
M.L. King Day: 32°F | 19°F
_____________________________________________________________

AMARILLO
Today: 21°F | 16°F
Sunday: 21°F | 9°F
M.L. King Day: 20°F | 6°F
_____________________________________________________________

LUBBOCK
Today: 25°F | 22°F
Sunday: 25°F | 14°F
M.L. King Day: 27°F | 13°F
_____________________________________________________________

WICHITA FALLS
Today: 27°F | 23°F
Sunday: 27°F | 18°F
M.L. King Day: 28°F | 13°F

[KatDaddy]

Still expecting a Winter Weather event:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
650 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-140000-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
650 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...THREAT OF WINTER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER
TODAY...WITH THE COLDEST AIR EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE ALONG WITH EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE
SURFACE AND WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING...THE THREAT OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE.

THOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST DATA AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY...THIS IS HOW THE SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO EVOLVE:

SUNDAY NIGHT...LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO LIVINGSTON
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHAT WILL INITIALLY START AS RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT. LIQUID PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SLEET...IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH TO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD SEE RAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALMOST
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EXCEPT LOCATIONS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE. RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD AGAIN TRANSITION TO LIQUID. IN
ADDITION...IT APPEARS THE BEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TO
TRINITY LINE SHOULD SEE THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THAN
THOSE TO THE NORTH.

TUESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING. AGAIN...AREAS SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM BRENHAM TO TRINITY
SHOULD HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES OF RECEIVING THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

WEDNESDAY...LINGERING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY IN THE
MORNING SHOULD COME TO AN END. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE
THREAT OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AND A WINTER
STORM WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY TO GIVE APPROPRIATE
LEAD TIME FOR THE UPCOMING THREAT. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE
REQUIRED FURTHER SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY
HAMPERED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
WEEKEND TO SHELTER SENSITIVE PLANTS AND MAKE ANY OTHER PREPARATIONS
NECESSARY TO WINTERIZE YOUR PROPERTY. CHECK ON THOSE WITH SPECIAL
NEEDS AND THE ELDERLY TO MAKE SURE THEY ARE PREPARED SHOULD THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT MATERIALIZE.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST UPDATED WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[Diva]

I feel like I'm tracking a hurricane!