TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

KatDaddy · #421 Postby **KatDaddy** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:08 am

Me as well. This time I was this focused on a weather event was Rita in 2005.

#422 Postby **Diva** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:17 am

KatDaddy wrote:Me as well. This time I was this focused on a weather event was Rita in 2005.

Yep, me too. At least this time around, if it gets as bad as predicted, we won't sweat like in Rita. I'm stocked up on fire wood so we'll be toasty come heck or ice storm!

Heading out this morning to buy one last round of batteries. Hope I don't have to battle for the last package with anyone. :eek:

TexasStooge · #423 Postby **TexasStooge** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:18 am

Here's the latest ice storm report from the NWS - Fort Worth:

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
713 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     ICE STORM        BOWIE                   33.56N  97.84W
01/13/2007                   MONTAGUE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NORTH BOUND HWY 287 NORTH OF BOWIE CLOSED DUE TO ICE.

#424 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:20 am

Question. NWS Houston is going upper 40s for tomorrow morning climbing to the mid 50s tomorrow afternoon. How many of you saw those temps to our north climbing into the mid 50s after FROPA yesterday? Still hedging...

Jagno · #425 Postby **Jagno** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 8:26 am

Diva wrote:
KatDaddy wrote:Me as well. This time I was this focused on a weather event was Rita in 2005.

Yep, me too. At least this time around, if it gets as bad as predicted, we won't sweat like in Rita. I'm stocked up on fire wood so we'll be toasty come heck or ice storm!

Heading out this morning to buy one last round of batteries. Hope I don't have to battle for the last package with anyone.

I'm just across the Sabine in Lake Charles. I'm still rebuilding so don't say that name just yet...................LOL.

This winter storm has me confused. Yesterday AFM said it would affect TX and N Louisiana. My question is how in the world can it affect SE Texas without affecting SW Louisiana. Folks, I REALLY need to stay ahead of this thing. I have elderly parents (mine & DH's), a business and a home. This is our busiest time of the year with Mardi Gras in full swing and alot changes if I have to shut the doors for a day or two. S2K kept me ahead of R**a and we got out ahead of the masses and I'm hoping to stay ahead of this one as well. Please give some help to a weather dummy, yet enthusiast. I've been reading and reading yet it appears this storm will just dissipate along the Tx border?

#426 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:01 am

Well, I woke up to a storm here in Austin. But not an ICE storm but a THUNDERstorm!! Very heavy rains here right now with an air temp of 45. A lot of lightning and thunder as well. What a weird weather setup.

#427 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:03 am

wxman57 wrote:Question. NWS Houston is going upper 40s for tomorrow morning climbing to the mid 50s tomorrow afternoon. How many of you saw those temps to our north climbing into the mid 50s after FROPA yesterday? Still hedging...

Wxman57, I think I may have a better one than that. Austin/San Antonio NWS said in their forecast discussion that they may need to "rethink" high temps today originally forecasted in the 60s. They wrote this as FROPA was occuring in Austin and temps were dropping into the 40s.

"Gee guys, ya think?!" :roll:

#428 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:06 am

Just a update of conditions. It is taking longer than I expected for temperatures to drop to freezing here (it is still 34 degrees F here in North Dallas). Now, around the metroplex I'm seeing some places that are at freezing, and some that aren't. However, I thought the area was going to be at around freezing by midnight or soon afterwards. Yet, they are now projecting for us to have the freezing rain start in the morning here.

#429 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:06 am

Jagno wrote:I'm just across the Sabine in Lake Charles. I'm still rebuilding so don't say that name just yet...................LOL.

This winter storm has me confused. Yesterday AFM said it would affect TX and N Louisiana. My question is how in the world can it affect SE Texas without affecting SW Louisiana. Folks, I REALLY need to stay ahead of this thing. I have elderly parents (mine & DH's), a business and a home. This is our busiest time of the year with Mardi Gras in full swing and alot changes if I have to shut the doors for a day or two. S2K kept me ahead of R**a and we got out ahead of the masses and I'm hoping to stay ahead of this one as well. Please give some help to a weather dummy, yet enthusiast. I've been reading and reading yet it appears this storm will just dissipate along the Tx border?

It's not a question of the "storm dissipating" to the east of Houston, it's a question of the depth and temperature of the cold air east of Houston. It only takes a change of a degree or two to make the difference between an ice storm and a very cold rain. In Houston, we may be just on the borderline between very cold rain and freezing rain. The farther east you go along the Gulf coast, the warmer the temperatures with this front, as the Arctic air will tend to drive south rather than east. So you'll probably see temps from 34-39 and cold rain Mon-Wed. Possibly, you could see a little icing on trees/power lines but not enough for major disruptions. Also some ice on bridges.

#430 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:10 am

TrekkerCC wrote:Just a update of conditions. It is taking longer than I expected for temperatures to drop to freezing here (it is still 34 degrees F here in North Dallas). Now, around the metroplex I'm seeing some places that are at freezing, and some that aren't. However, I thought the area was going to be at around freezing by midnight or soon afterwards. Yet, they are now projecting for us to have the freezing rain start in the morning here.

The cold air is coming down in a series of surges. The first surge didn't quite get you to 32, but the cold air continues to filter southward behind the front. So your temps will slowly drop through the day today.

#431 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:19 am

wxman57 wrote:
TrekkerCC wrote:Just a update of conditions. It is taking longer than I expected for temperatures to drop to freezing here (it is still 34 degrees F here in North Dallas). Now, around the metroplex I'm seeing some places that are at freezing, and some that aren't. However, I thought the area was going to be at around freezing by midnight or soon afterwards. Yet, they are now projecting for us to have the freezing rain start in the morning here.

The cold air is coming down in a series of surges. The first surge didn't quite get you to 32, but the cold air continues to filter southward behind the front. So your temps will slowly drop through the day today.

Thanks wxman57. Yes, I see from the NWS Ft. Worth Office special image that the freezing line is rapidly advancing upon us. Also, I saw from the morning NWS discussion that they were again shocked (because they were following the models) that the freezing line is advancing as fast as it has been going. You would think they would chuck the models at this point with how poorly they been doing.

#432 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:27 am

TrekkerCC wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
TrekkerCC wrote:Just a update of conditions. It is taking longer than I expected for temperatures to drop to freezing here (it is still 34 degrees F here in North Dallas). Now, around the metroplex I'm seeing some places that are at freezing, and some that aren't. However, I thought the area was going to be at around freezing by midnight or soon afterwards. Yet, they are now projecting for us to have the freezing rain start in the morning here.

The cold air is coming down in a series of surges. The first surge didn't quite get you to 32, but the cold air continues to filter southward behind the front. So your temps will slowly drop through the day today.

Thanks wxman57. Yes, I see from the NWS Ft. Worth Office special image that the freezing line is rapidly advancing upon us. Also, I saw from the morning NWS discussion that they were again shocked (because they were following the models) that the freezing line is advancing as fast as it has been going. You would think they would chuck the models at this point with how poorly they been doing.

IF you REALLY want to have a laugh at an NWS organization hanging onto model output...go to the HPC website and lookup the 12, 24 and 48 hour forecasts...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

They have the front just a little south of where it is now by tomorrow night...and according to them it's barely thru CLL.

As a pro-met...it's one of those things that makes me want to call in and talk to the forecaster to ask them "how bad can you be?" TO not even initialize a model?

It's pitiful.

cheezyWXguy · #433 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:34 am

According to weatherbug, Im at 30 degrees...sure is getting cold!...I think that by noon we should be seeing some freezing rain get into the Dallas area, probably similar to last nights rain but actually below freezing

#434 Postby **Portastorm** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:37 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:According to weatherbug, Im at 30 degrees...sure is getting cold!...I think that by noon we should be seeing some freezing rain get into the Dallas area, probably similar to last nights rain but actually below freezing

Cheezy ... I'm at 40.4 degrees here in north Austin. In the last hour since I've been awake, I've watched the temp just incrementally drop two-tenths of a degree every 10-15 minutes. A steady march downward.

We've also received this morning nearly 2 inches of rain now. Thank the Lord our surface temps aren't below freezing!! (yet)

#435 Postby **TrekkerCC** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:38 am

Air Force Met wrote:
TrekkerCC wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
TrekkerCC wrote:Just a update of conditions. It is taking longer than I expected for temperatures to drop to freezing here (it is still 34 degrees F here in North Dallas). Now, around the metroplex I'm seeing some places that are at freezing, and some that aren't. However, I thought the area was going to be at around freezing by midnight or soon afterwards. Yet, they are now projecting for us to have the freezing rain start in the morning here.

The cold air is coming down in a series of surges. The first surge didn't quite get you to 32, but the cold air continues to filter southward behind the front. So your temps will slowly drop through the day today.

Thanks wxman57. Yes, I see from the NWS Ft. Worth Office special image that the freezing line is rapidly advancing upon us. Also, I saw from the morning NWS discussion that they were again shocked (because they were following the models) that the freezing line is advancing as fast as it has been going. You would think they would chuck the models at this point with how poorly they been doing.

IF you REALLY want to have a laugh at an NWS organization hanging onto model output...go to the HPC website and lookup the 12, 24 and 48 hour forecasts...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

They have the front just a little south of where it is now by tomorrow night...and according to them it's barely thru CLL.

As a pro-met...it's one of those things that makes me want to call in and talk to the forecaster to ask them "how bad can you be?" TO not even initialize a model?

It's pitiful.

Wow, the front does not appear to be stalling out like as the models projecting. The front seems to be going at a good clip S and SE. It appears that it could arrive in Houston area by Sunday morning. People will likely be very surprised.

double D · #436 Postby **double D** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:48 am

The temperature keeps dropping in the Austin and surronding area but the NWS is calling for highs in the 60's? I don't see that happening unless the front is expected to return as a warm front. Very confusing!

ROCK · #437 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:54 am

double D wrote:The temperature keeps dropping in the Austin and surronding area but the NWS is calling for highs in the 60's? I don't see that happening unless the front is expected to return as a warm front. Very confusing!

good luck seeing 60's today...in fact you probably won't see 60 for about 4 days......

JenBayles · #438 Postby **JenBayles** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:56 am

double D wrote:The temperature keeps dropping in the Austin and surronding area but the NWS is calling for highs in the 60's? I don't see that happening unless the front is expected to return as a warm front. Very confusing!

I just read that myself, while noting that my camping buddies in Pedernales Falls (Johnson City) experienced FROPA at some point in the wee hours. Hmmmm? Wonder why? All those forecasts telling them no FROPA until Sunday or Sunday night couldn't have been WRONG could they?! :lol:

#439 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:58 am

ROCK wrote:
double D wrote:The temperature keeps dropping in the Austin and surronding area but the NWS is calling for highs in the 60's? I don't see that happening unless the front is expected to return as a warm front. Very confusing!

good luck seeing 60's today...in fact you probably won't see 60 for about 4 days......

Their new forecast (7:45am) says temperatures in the mid to upper 50s slowly falling during the afternoon. Only 10 degrees off to start with. ("if we ignore the cold air - it'll go away...").

JenBayles · #440 Postby **JenBayles** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:58 am

OK, Mario G. is back at it again. Oh, it'll be in the 70's and rainy today, with FROPA late tonite, and not really that cold tomorrow... nothing much to worry about until maybe Monday morning... at least his numbers are dropping, but suspect they're still 10 degrees too warm based on everything I'm reading here. <puts tin foil hat on and heads back to coffee pot>

TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

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