A Tiny Shred of Potential at the BOC?

[Steve H.]

Looks like a decent circulation showing up in the latest IR loop at 8 EDT crossing the Yucatan and about to move off into the BOC in the next 6 hours or so. Lots of convection is blossoming right now. The trough will move across the SE states and possibly leave the BOC in somewhat favorable conditions. If this develops, would tend to think it would head to the NNW. Cheers!!

[ColdFront77]

Boy, I'll say it has. There is even a bit of activity over the Bay of Campeche, moving north/northwest to south/southeast to the west of the main flare of convection which is basically moving northward... in the last frame or two.

[wx247]

It does look a little better this evening. Looks interesting to say the least.

[southerngale]

Hmmm....maybe we will have something. It doesn't look too bad.

lol rainband

[Anonymous]

Keep in mind, the convection you see blowing up in the Yucatan tonight is mostly diurnal related, meaning that it is destined to die as quickly as it flared overnight. Since the shear is low in the BOC, I wouldn't be surprised if we see something try to organize in the near future. However, whatever does form will be short-lived, and end in absorption by the frontal system to the north. There may be a very slim chance of tropical development during the short time this thing is over the low shear in the BOC, but it's not something I'm holding my breath over. The strong 40KT westerly shear zone dominating most of the GOM is just too fierce for anything to last IMO.

[ColdFront77]

I can see what you mean Rob. Whatever the case may be it flared up tonight and something worth watching... Saturday when this area was looking its best; the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico had relatively low to low wind shear. The trough to the north and west of the shear in the Gulf isn't that strong either.

[Rainband]

I haven't either form the last sat I saw..you can see the shear subsiding in the BOC by the radar.... and the clouds being blown ene north of the area(BOC).I say this one has something we may wanna watch...If I am wrong..I'll eat Crow like everyone else so far this year!!!!

Anyone like some crow!!!!! Needed something to wash it down with

[southerngale]

lol rainband

[Rainband]

lol rainband

Plenty of rain to wash it down with now!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o

[OtherHD]

I think our shread has become a microscopic dot. NHC is a lot less bullish in their outlooks today.

[Rainband]

I think our shread has become a microscopic dot. NHC is a lot less bullish in their outlooks today.

I hope so..it would mean bad news for us it it moved this way..Rain is something we have a surplus of now!!

[ColdFront77]

The flow of tropical moisture has been continous from the southwest and then west from this feature and there hasn't been much deviation of the flow into west-central and central Florida, for that matter; as a whole.

[Stormsfury]

There is a circulation somewhere between 20-25N,and 95W-98W region, however, it's devoid of convection ... all the thunderstorms are being shunted well east of the area ... other areas of note: Diurnally driven thunderstorms again over the Yucatan Peninsula in association with another tropical wave crossing the Yucatan Peninsula today ...

Development of the system seems very unlikely ... yes, there's an anticyclonic rotation expected to be moving into that region ... but looking at WV loops ... that area is also very DRY as well and would pretty much suppress any sustainable convection ...