TX Winter WX Thread #6 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Extremeweatherguy]

Anyone see the 12z GFS?? It shows heavier precipitation sitting over SE Texas for a longer period of time. If this plays out, then the potential of a major storm is certainly there with late Monday and Tuesday (and even Wednesday) being quite eventful days.

[Shoshana]

Whoa - Mopac is closed?! What a snarl that must be generating!

I-35 is closed in San Marcus (both directions) because of debris from a tornado.

There's a big accident that has part of I-35 closed in Round Rock.

Places that don't normally flood are flooding - part of our backyard is ponding which I've never seen before (We've been here about 6 years).

Rain estimates for the area are 4-6" inches and it's still raining.

[aubrn34]

I usually don't post here on the boards, but I have been reading the boards for a long time and currently live on the north edge of Dallas. When my area goes below freezing, it's going to be an ice skating rink. We've been pounded by heavy rain all night and all this morning and if it had been below freezing we'd have 2-3 inches of ice right now, with more to come. Luckily, that has not happened, but if it rains like this for the next couple of waves when we are below freezing, many of the trees and power lines will snap. I'm still hoping for the best.

[double D]

Anyone see the 12z GFS?? It shows heavier precipitation sitting over SE Texas for a longer period of time. If this plays out, then the potential of a major storm is certainly there with late Monday and Tuesday (and even Wednesday) being quite eventful days.

And the 12z NAM shows some precip coming in Tuesday and Wednesday with very cold air in place. Looks like a long week for us in Texas.

[Lindaloo]

I usually don't post here on the boards, but I have been reading the boards for a long time and currently live on the north edge of Dallas. When my area goes below freezing, it's going to be an ice skating rink. We've been pounded by heavy rain all night and all this morning and if it had been below freezing we'd have 2-3 inches of ice right now, with more to come. Luckily, that has not happened, but if it rains like this for the next couple of waves when we are below freezing, many of the trees and power lines will snap. I'm still hoping for the best.

Glad to see you post and join in. I sure hope all goes well for you in the DFW area.

[JonathanBelles]

when if it hasnt all ready will texas be called a state of emergency?

[TrekkerCC]

The front still hasnt passed through Texarkana. It is still about 10 miles to the west, moving eastward at 5. Texarkana should have frontal passage within the next couple hours. 30 miles west of here, Temperatures are already in the upper 30's.

I just checked the local observation for Dallas, and they are still above freezing at 34 with a dewpoint of 32. I also checked Denton, which is just up the road, and they are at 31 with a dewpoint of 28, so the colder, drier air is steadily diving southward.

Dallas should be to the freezing point by noon. I dont think the freezing line reaches the Texarkana area until sometime tomorrow morning. That might sound like good news, but the models are still predicting another couple inches of precip after that period into late Monday.

I think the significant icing will be north and west of a Pine Bluff, Arkansas, Shreveport, LA, College Station, Tx to Austin, Tx line. IMO, SE of that line temperatures are problematic as far as winter precip are concerned, atleast significant winter weather.

I would say Dallas goes at or below freezing more like the 1pm to 2pm range. I think the atmosphere is having some trouble cooling off in the Dallas area (possibly because of the heavy rain yesterday) or the heat island effect, but my temperature is stubbornly showing 34 degrees right now. If the temperature drops one degree per hour, then we could be down at freezing by 12pm. However, if it is a drop of one degree every two or three hours...it could be 1pm or 2pm (or later).

[JenBayles]

Front seems to really be moving southward much faster than to the east. La Grange, TX (quite a ways SW of Houston) now at 55 and NW wind. Not much of an eastward push since it passed Bryan/College Station earlier this morning.

[Toady1]

Whoa - Mopac is closed?! What a snarl that must be generating!

I-35 is closed in San Marcus (both directions) because of debris from a tornado.

There's a big accident that has part of I-35 closed in Round Rock.

Places that don't normally flood are flooding - part of our backyard is ponding which I've never seen before (We've been here about 6 years).

Rain estimates for the area are 4-6" inches and it's still raining.

I havent seen rain this intense for this long of a duration for many years here in austin. Does anyone have a good handle on when the central texas temps will go below freezing??

[Shoshana]

My sister in Lewisville (NW of Dallas, Denton County) just called to tell me that it's 31F on one thermometer and 32.2 on another and it's currently raining.

So it will be sooner rather than later for the ice storm...

[Tamora]

The front still hasnt passed through Texarkana. It is still about 10 miles to the west, moving eastward at 5. Texarkana should have frontal passage within the next couple hours. 30 miles west of here, Temperatures are already in the upper 30's.

I just checked the local observation for Dallas, and they are still above freezing at 34 with a dewpoint of 32. I also checked Denton, which is just up the road, and they are at 31 with a dewpoint of 28, so the colder, drier air is steadily diving southward.

Dallas should be to the freezing point by noon. I dont think the freezing line reaches the Texarkana area until sometime tomorrow morning. That might sound like good news, but the models are still predicting another couple inches of precip after that period into late Monday.

I think the significant icing will be north and west of a Pine Bluff, Arkansas, Shreveport, LA, College Station, Tx to Austin, Tx line. IMO, SE of that line temperatures are problematic as far as winter precip are concerned, atleast significant winter weather.

I would say Dallas goes at or below freezing more like the 1pm to 2pm range. I think the atmosphere is having some trouble cooling off in the Dallas area (possibly because of the heavy rain yesterday) or the heat island effect, but my temperature is stubbornly showing 34 degrees right now. If the temperature drops one degree per hour, then we could be down at freezing by 12pm. However, if it is a drop of one degree every two or three hours...it could be 1pm or 2pm (or later).

I live south of mansfield by joe pool lake, and I have been watching my outdoor temp all morning and we are hovering at 33.2. We have had so much rain, and it is still lightly falling. We are very close to a skating rink.
Does rain freeze at 32.0 or any where in the 32 degree range?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Front seems to really be moving southward much faster than to the east. La Grange, TX (quite a ways SW of Houston) now at 55 and NW wind. Not much of an eastward push since it passed Bryan/College Station earlier this morning.

Agreed. You can easily see this here...

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface ... rs_abi.gif

[DallasTX]

Just northwest of Dallas in Aubrey (close to Denton), where it should be cooling off, the temps have been on a steady march UPWARD since 9:00.

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KTXAUBRE1

I've given up trying to guess whats gonna happen here, I definitely expected the NW zones to be much colder than that by now.

I'm in The Colony, west of Plano, and we have gone from 34 back up to 35. Who knows.

(go saints!)

[Portastorm]

Temps are in the mid 30s just north of Austin metro in Williamson and Burnet counties right now. My guess is that we go below freezing late this evening in Austin metro ... sometime around 10 pm-12 midnight.

And yes ... this rain has really been something, hasn't it?! I wonder if it will have any moderating effect on the ice situation in terms of ground moisture, etc.

[Shoshana]

Supposed to freeze in Austin/Pflugerville area tomorrow night. (officially, but who knows - it does seem like it should be tonight)

OT Dessau and Howard, Cameron and Parmer are both underwater and closed, the APD says Cameron and Parmer had 3-4 feet of water.

Front just went thru La Grange.

edited to add - they're now talking about us having "thunder sleet' or 'thunder snow'...

[JenBayles]

Notice a FFW just hoisted for Blanco Co., TX including Pedernales Falls State Park. Tried to reach my Happy Campers and of course, can't get through. Hope they're packing up and getting out of Dodge by now.

I know Central TX really needs the rain - by WHY does it always have to come in the form of floods?

[Toady1]

when if it hasnt all ready will texas be called a state of emergency?

Im sure a state of emergency will not be issued until the ice event is evident, and has created major problems with intrastate transportation and threats to human safety and/or property. I would say that the State SOC (state operations center) is activated and manned by now.

[Portastorm]

when if it hasnt all ready will texas be called a state of emergency?

Im sure a state of emergency will not be issued until the ice event is evident, and has created major problems with intrastate transportation and threats to human safety and/or property. I would say that the State SOC (state operations center) is activated and manned by now.

Actually ... no. No State of Emergency yet or else I would be getting an "activation" call since I serve on the council. But it could happen if things get bad enough statewide.

[Toady1]

Temps are in the mid 30s just north of Austin metro in Williamson and Burnet counties right now. My guess is that we go below freezing late this evening in Austin metro ... sometime around 10 pm-12 midnight.

And yes ... this rain has really been something, hasn't it?! I wonder if it will have any moderating effect on the ice situation in terms of ground moisture, etc.

I would think that it certainly would for a certain period of time. .......considering the ground temps and amount of water, until the next surge of cold air arrives Im sure the only icing that would occur with a ambient temp of 30 or so should only be on elevated surfaces.

[TexasStooge]

Right now, it's 33*F with light rain, but according to TWC's HiRAD observations, we're at 32*F with a Thunder Mix.