TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Lindaloo]

Please continue here. Thanks everybody!

Previous thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=92320

[weatherrabbit_tx]

thundersleet or thundersnow, let me tell ya it will come down hard and mount up quickly, we had that in jan. '97 the last icestorm when I lived below I-10

[Kelarie]

Behind the house that faces us, there is a Corp of Engineer ditch/canal. It is probably 10 ft across, 5-8 ft deep, and it is nearly full with water. And it is still raining. This is crazy. We have lived in this house for about 3 years and have NEVER seen it like this before.

Shoshana, I also heard about the "thunder sleet" and "thunder snow". Jim Spencer is really living this one up.

[TexasStooge]

Just got these next winter storm reports:

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1048 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     FREEZING RAIN    BOWIE                   33.56N  97.84W
01/13/2007  E0.25 INCH       MONTAGUE           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            1/4 INCH ICE ACCUMULATION

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1059 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 AM     FREEZING RAIN    KELLER                  32.93N  97.23W
01/13/2007  E0.05 INCH       TARRANT            TX   PUBLIC

            LIGHT GLAZE ON SURFACES AND TREES IN KELLER

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1113 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1101 AM     FREEZING RAIN    DUNCANVILLE             32.65N  96.91W
01/13/2007  E0.05 INCH       DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES/GRASS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     FREEZING RAIN    4 W GRANBURY            32.44N  97.86W
01/13/2007  E0.05 INCH       HOOD               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES AND SURFACES

Well, as the meteorologists said, stay away from trees and power lines as they are subjected to be frozen and.....bust.

[TrekkerCC]

I am also showing a temperature of 33 degrees here now (and some light precipitation) on the home weather gauge. Probably 12:00pm to 2:00pm would be my guess on when the temperature will finally drop to freezing.

(Amended to add: Addison Airport has dropped to Freezing)

[cheezyWXguy]

i Have a temp of 32 with moderate rain...any time now, this should change over and we could really be in for it...by 1pm, i expect to be seeing some pretty good stuff falling at my house

[TexasStooge]

ABC affiliate WFAA-TV in DFW has already started a list of closings/delays:

Public Schools
Lake Worth ISD: Closed.

Private Schools
Tyler Street Christian: Closed.

Universities/Colleges
Texas Wesleyan University: Closed.

Corp
Remington College Fort Worth: Closed.

For a more up to date listings, go to wfaa.com/closings

[Portastorm]

It's official for Austin now ... we're under a Winter Storm Warning ... along with a Flash Flood Warning ... how many times does that happen?!


ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1106 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

TXZ192-132200-
TRAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...AUSTIN
1106 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM
CST MONDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS 51 TO 56. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
CHANCE OF RAIN 100 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...SHOWERS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET
AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...CLOUDY...RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
COLDER. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID
30S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
70 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ICE ACCUMULATION OF
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOWS AROUND 30. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE
MORNING...THEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AND OCCASIONAL RAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE
LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW
IN THE MORNING...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 50.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS 50 TO
55.

[Diva]

Yikes Portastorm...stay safe.

[TexasStooge]

Yesterday, when some of us were under a Winter Storm Watch, the city of Waco had a tornado touchdown. How many times has THAT happened?

[JenBayles]

Hooray! Finally reached the Happy Campers. They're wet, cold, miserable and on the way home. People were still trying to check into the State Park and the rangers are now warning people if they don't get out NOW, they'll probably be there until Tuesday. Whew!

Funny note now that they're safe. They said, "What happened to that 60 degrees we were supposed to have today? Who lied to us?!"

[JenBayles]

Hard to believe we're gonna be freezing our collective drawers off by tomorrow. Just finished up wrapping plants and last minute outdoor prep, and sweating like a pig. At least we're now prepped before the rain starts.

[TexasStooge]

As if an Ice Storm Warning wasn't enough, a FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for DFW until 1:45PM CST.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 94#1508294

[TrekkerCC]

As if an Ice Storm Warning wasn't enough, a FLASH FLOOD WARNING has been issued for DFW until 1:45PM CST.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 94#1508294

With so much moisture already in place in the North Texas area, when the rain does start to change over to Freezing Rain (or Sleet), we are going to get a lot.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1152 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1146 AM     FREEZING RAIN    11 SW GAINESVILLE       33.52N  97.29W
01/13/2007  E0.10 INCH       COOKE              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            ICE ACCUMULATION 1/8 INCH ON TREES/POWER POLES IN
            ROSSTON

That's not too good!!

[double D]

The game begins for the NWS to play catch up and frantically warn people of ice (at least in central Texas)....Maybe they should have looked at the S2K forums and they would not be in this situation. I wonder how many people will be caught off guard?

[AggieSpirit]

This is really bad I think.... We have heavy rain here in Cedar Hill, and are now at 31 degrees. Ice is now glazing trees and vehicles. Ice has glazed our satellite tv dish and is disrupting the singal somewhat. If this amount of rain keeps up, I have a feeling power is going to become an issue.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

G'afternoon. New to the board with a question. What's up with the NWS LCH forecast?
The latest does not have SE TX going below freezing for the next 7 days. How can there be such a discrepancy or are we just far enough east to miss it?

[TexasStooge]

Wish I could tell ya there.
_____________________________________________________________

Here's the latest AFD:

.UPDATE...
1125 AM CST

FREEZING TEMPERATURE LINE CURRENTLY NEAR A GAINESVILLE...DFW...TO
LAMPASAS LINE AT THIS TIME. FIRST SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR HAS LOST SOME
OF ITS MOMENTUM...BUT HAS STILL MANGED TO MOVE THROUGH ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS AS OF 11 AM. ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT (MOST EVIDENT FROM THE
LOWER DEW POINTS)...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT
THIS TIME... WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SHOULD ENTER INTO NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
FALL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FREEZING LINE...NEAR AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35. IN THE SUB FREEZING AIR...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SLEET
IN THE DEEPER COLDER AIR NEAR THE RED RIVER.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE NEXT IMPULSE OF ENERGY OVER THE FAR WEST
TEXAS. THIS LIFT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
IMPACTS WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION COULD BE FAR GREATER
DUE TO SEVERAL HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AND MORE ROAD
SURFACE BECOME ICE COVERED.

WILL LEAVE CURRENT WARNINGS/WATCHES AND ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR NOW.
NO UPDATES NEEDED.

ONE OF THE MORE INTERESTING FORECASTS IN QUITE SOME TIME. WINTER
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINS WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING...ALL IN ONE
PACKAGE. WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS BUT WILL TRY TO
COVER ALL THE BASES.

FIRST...THE WINTER WEATHER. WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ICE STORM WARNING
SLIGHTLY EAST AND SOUTH AS THE FREEZE LINE CONTINUES TO SLIDE
FASTER AND FARTHER THAN MODELS DEPICTED AND WE EARLIER THOUGHT.
WE ALSO EXTENDED THE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS NOT HANDLED
THIS EVENT VERY WELL WHILE THE NAM HAS BEEN CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM TEMP
GUIDANCE. WHERE IT IS FREEZING NOW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FOR 48 HOURS SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN ICE PROBLEMS. WE EXPECT THE FREEZE LINE TO TRAVEL
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY BUT NOT FAR...PARTIALLY
DUE TO HEAVY RAINS (MORE ABOUT THAT LATER). THIS AREA MAY WAFFLE
BACK AND FORTH FROM JUST BELOW FREEZING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...HENCE
WE WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN THIS AREA.

IT WILL NOT RAIN CONTINUOUSLY THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT WILL COME IN
WAVES AS UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE
FIRST...COMING OUT OF THE BIG BEND AREA...WILL AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY. THE SECOND ONE...PROGGED TO EJECT NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...COULD PRODUCE EVEN MORE PRECIP THAN TODAYS. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE LAST WAVE OF ENERGY TO BRING WINTER PRECIP.

WITH THIS ADDITIONAL LIFT...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN...JUST WHAT WE DON`T NEED FALLING INTO FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE WARNING AREA WILL BE BAD TODAY...BUT WE
EXPECT IT TO BECOME WORSE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY...WE WILL LIKELY SEE A NUMBER OF POWER
OUTAGES AFFECTING QUITE A FEW NORTH TEXANS.

IN ADDITION...THESE HEAVY RAINS WILL WARM THE SURFACE
AIR...SLIGHTLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FREEZE LINE TO RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY...THEN SURGE BACK AFTER THE RAINS END. THUS SOME
AREAS...MAINLY THOSE IN THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY AREA...MAY
ALTERNATE BETWEEN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND HEAVY RAIN.

TO THE EAST OF THE ICE STORM WARNING...WE EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND
THREE INCHES...WITH ISOLATED FOUR INCH AMOUNTS. BASICALLY...THE
AREA NOT IN THE ICE STORM WARNING IS IN A FLOOD WATCH.

LONG TERM DISCUSSION (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MODELS ARE HITTING AT A FINAL BAND OF PRECIP MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AS MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE SE
CWA WHERE MORE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. WE HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES SE OF THE ICE WARNING AND FREEZING RAIN
ADV FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY PERIOD. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE MODES BEFORE ACTIVITY FINALLY
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW WE ARE NOT SURE
IF WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...BUT THE WATCH IS A HEADS UP FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OR WINTER STORM WARNING WHICH CAN BE BETTER
ASSESSED BY THE LATER SHIFTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD WITH A COUPLE NIGHTS OF TEENS IN THE
OUTLYING AREAS MON-TUE. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MODIFY AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY IN THE
WEEK...BEFORE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD BACK INTO THE ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS IS INDICATING FREEZING RAIN...BUT GIVEN
THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HAVE KEPT PRECIP ALL LIQUID AT THIS
TIME. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN POSSIBLE...DAY TIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN
RATHER CHILLY...BUT LOWS SHOULD COME UP INTO THE MID 30S.

[Diva]

Welcome wicked wx watcher! I believe you'll kinda find an answer to your question in the previous thread. Here's the link....

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=420

...page 22 has a great answer from wxman57 to a member in Lake Charles. Hope that helps.