TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[JonathanBelles]

Wow! That KBTV-4 forecast is just downright horrible! That will bust by at least 10 degrees for the highs. That may be one of the worst forecasts I have ever seen actually.

I think the other 2 stations have a much more sensible forecast for the Beaumont area.

the kfdm is very bad.

[BestWxMan]

Hello I am new to the board. I'm in SW Louisiana, and am doing the best I can to try and nail down this wintry threat for the area. I am studying to be a meteorologist, and have loved weather all my life. This set up reminds me of our big Ice Storm back in January of 1997 (exactly 10 years to the day.) I am just curious what other forecasters thoughts are about the icy potential here. I feel the NWS LCH is finally starting to come on board, but are still a little too warm for temps. I think someone will be caught off guard by the potential for an ice storm.

I have posted my thoughts on this storm on my blog:

http://www.xanga.com/BestWxMan

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm sorry, but does this latest NWS update make any sense to anyone?

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

They went from a high of 49F tomorrow to a high of 62F now. Umm...This is NOT going to happen. Once the front passes through, there is no way temps. rise tomorrow like that under cloudy skies with rain. It just isn't going to happen.

To add to the confusion...just a few miles west they have highs in the 40s and low 50s. I highly DOUBT there will be that much of a contrast with the front already practically here tonight.

[gboudx]

CBS met here in Dallas, Kristine Kahanek, was showing our forecast out to next weekend. She has us at 30 with snow/sleet for that day. Now, I realize this is based on models that have not shown much ability to accurately forecast that far out, but it was interesting nonetheless.

We don't have any ice here yet. But we're right at 32 so that could change. Today it poured down off and on. We definitely need this rain.

[Extremeweatherguy]

BTW: Brenham is down to 37-degrees right now and their forecast low was in the lower 40s.

The NWS is busting by 3-7 degrees there tonight AT THE LEAST.

[wall_cloud]

I'm a little confused, why are most NWS calling for drier conditions by the middle of next week when models are showing more precip. falling Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly beyond? Just curious.

maybe the models aren't right. that's been the theme so far on the winter weather threads hasn't it?

[Stratosphere747]

I'm sorry, but does this latest NWS update make any sense to anyone?

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

They went from a high of 49F tomorrow to a high of 62F now. Umm...This is NOT going to happen. Once the front passes through, there is no way temps. rise tomorrow like that under cloudy skies with rain. It just isn't going to happen.

To add to the confusion...just a few miles west they have highs in the 40s and low 50s. I highly DOUBT there will be that much of a contrast with the front already practically here tonight.

Have you actually thought about the possibility that the front does not make it through the reporting station until after midnight??

Despite what we thought yesterday, it has slowed down quite a bit...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm sorry, but does this latest NWS update make any sense to anyone?

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 49. South wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 62. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

They went from a high of 49F tomorrow to a high of 62F now. Umm...This is NOT going to happen. Once the front passes through, there is no way temps. rise tomorrow like that under cloudy skies with rain. It just isn't going to happen.

To add to the confusion...just a few miles west they have highs in the 40s and low 50s. I highly DOUBT there will be that much of a contrast with the front already practically here tonight.

Have you actually thought about the possibility that the front does not make it through the reporting station until after midnight??

Despite what we thought yesterday, it has slowed down quite a bit...

well that would make sense if they also showed the low tonight being 62-degrees as well, but instead they show a low of 49F and then a high of 62F tomorrow. It is that 13-degree rise which doesn't quite make sense (especially since forecasts in western Harris co. show highs in the lower 50s).

BTW, check out my hourly weather chart:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... =graphical

It shows the high occuring at the same time the chart shows it in the upper 40s. It makes no sense.

[aggiecutter]

gboudx, Dallas will get their ice tomorrow as another disturbance is currently approaching the Big Bend Country of Texas and moving NE. I just checked the Dallas current temp and dewpoint. They were 33 and 30 respectively, so Dallas should drop close to 30 at the onset of precip. However, I'm becoming less convinced as time goes by that there will be anything really significant south the 1-20 corridor or in the eastern third of North Texas. It looks to me like the air mass is modifying somewhat, and by the time it reaches these areas, it will be a little too warm for a major icing event.

[double D]

I'm a little confused, why are most NWS calling for drier conditions by the middle of next week when models are showing more precip. falling Tuesday and Wednesday and possibly beyond? Just curious.

maybe the models aren't right. that's been the theme so far on the winter weather threads hasn't it?

Yeah that's a good point. I guess we really have to take this day by day and see how all of this materializes.

[TexasStooge]

Updated North Texas Closings:

Private Schools/Churches

St. Thomas Aquinas: Bible classes canceled.

Church Organizations:

Arlington Heights United Methodist: Closed.

Ascension Lutheran Church Cleburne: Closed.

Burleson Church of Christ: Opening at 10:45 AM. Morning classes canceled.

Cathedral Guadalupe: Education Classes canceled.

Concord Missionary Baptist Church: Opening at 11:00 AM.

Creekwood Church - Mansfield: Closed.

First Baptist of Hamilton Park: Opening at 9:00 AM.

First United Methodist Church Fort Worth: Closed.

Greenville Oaks Church of Christ: First Service & Classes Canceled.

Hope Community Church: Closed.

Memorial Christian Church: Morning Services Canceled.

Saturn Rd Church of Christ: Praise & Unity Worship Event canceled.

Skillman Street Church of Christ: Services Canceled.

St. Martin-in-the-Fields Episcopal Church: 7:30 AM & 8:30 AM Services Canceled.

St. Rita Young Singles Dallas: Retro Dance canceled.

Wedgwood Baptist Church: 10:35 a.m. Service Only.

Other

Decatur Livestock Market: Sale Canceled.

Japan-American Society Dallas/Ft Worth: Mochitsuki Festival Canceled.

Tanglefoot Dance Club: Dance Canceled.

SOURCE: WFAA.com

[Extremeweatherguy]

Front just passed through Cypress (Blackhorse ranch)

http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999
^^weatherunderground weather station map. Easy way to track front.^^

[TexasStooge]

Here are the latest Winter Weather reports:

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     FREEZING RAIN    DUNCANVILLE             32.65N  96.91W
01/13/2007  E0.10 INCH       DALLAS             TX   PUBLIC

            ICE ON BRIDGES AT INTERSTATE 20/SPUR 408 INTERSECTION

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
202 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     FREEZING RAIN    LEWISVILLE              33.04N  96.98W
01/13/2007  E0.05 INCH       DENTON             TX   PUBLIC

            ICE ACCUMULATING ON TREES/GRASS

Code: Select all

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
442 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     ICE STORM        GAINESVILLE             33.64N  97.15W
01/13/2007                   COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ICE COVERED BRIDGES/OVERPASSES ACROSS THE COUNTY

This is just the first wave, the heavier stuff will be coming tomorrow; and things would only get...uglier in Texas. An ICE STORM WARNING continues in effect for North and Central Texas regions, as well as a WINTER STORM WARNING for the Northern half of the panhandle and southern central Texas through Monday morning.

[JenBayles]

Horrible! And how many people religiously refer to a given station for ALL their weather info? How about "downright dangerous" to publicize that forecast in this situation? I would much prefer to see a forecast err on the worst case side so at least people will have a chance to do some prep.

Edit: OOPS! I see I hadn't refreshed the screen for a while! Was referring to the post comparing OCM forecasts now a few posts ago.

[HouTXmetro]

Brenham TX just NW of Harris County is already down to 36!!!

[TXGale]

Hi all,

Just reporting in....I'm at Fry rd and 529 in Katy. It's here! Temp is dropping. Not much wind yet, but a lot of lightning in the distance.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hi all,

Just reporting in....I'm at Fry rd and 529 in Katy. It's here! Temp is dropping. Not much wind yet, but a lot of lightning in the distance.

thanks for that report. Looks like the rest of us will experience the same thing as the evening progresses and into tomorrow. Things go downhill from there..

[JenBayles]

Hey TXGale! Yankeegirl is in your immediate vicinity and I'm in Bear Creek. Glad to hear a report since there isn't much in the way of reporting stations from Brenham to Houston. All we have is Hooks, Hull, and Sugarland before Houston proper. Thanks for chiming in!

I just flipped the AC on - 79 degrees in my freakin' house!

[TXGale]

Yup EWG...Polar Express is definately on the move! Brrrrr!

[EastTxGal]

I am in a rural area near Centerville,Tx and confused about the freeze line over Central Texas. Since we do not have a local met we get our weather from Bryan/College Station and Waco. The Waco met said the front may back up as a warm front and that would keep the rain around but possibly no ice. It has been raining all day and the temp stayed around 37. Does anyone have any thoughts about the forecast for this area, Centerville is on I-45 half way between Dallas and Houston.