TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[TXGale]

Hey Jen....I just changed out of my shorts into my flannels. This is crazy! A/C is now off!

[JenBayles]

Hmm... after reading TXGale's post I stepped outside. Little tendrils of noticeably colder air drifting in on a slight NW breeze. Is it really the beginning of FROPA or just downdrafts from storms just west of here?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Front now passing through Northlake forest. Their dewpoint and temperature have each dropped a good 3-6 degrees in the last few minutes alone.

[gboudx]

gboudx, Dallas will get their ice tomorrow as another disturbance is currently approaching the Big Bend Country of Texas and moving NE. I just checked the Dallas current temp and dewpoint. They were 33 and 30 respectively, so Dallas should drop close to 30 at the onset of precip. However, I'm becoming less convinced as time goes by that there will be anything really significant south the 1-20 corridor or in the eastern third of North Texas. It looks to me like the air mass is modifying somewhat, and by the time it reaches these areas, it will be a little too warm for a major icing event.

I'm just north of I-30, which is probably about 20 miles north of I-20. So, we'll see how it goes here. Anyways, I'll let ya'll know how it goes. I'm off to watch my Saints play.

Geaux SAINTS!!!!!!!

[jeff]

Per PM request: What about extreme SE TX and SW LA.

Feel arctic push is south instead of SE so I would expect ZR at Victoria before BPT and KLCH. With that being said...accumulations of ice over inalnd SE TX and NE TX may help drive the freezing line SE along and N of I-10 by Tuesday morning. Secondary arcitc surge arriving Monday will probably be the "real" front for SW LA as the current boundary just NW of KIAH may take a long time to reach the state line (18-24 hours).

I am not as concerned about points E of the state line and S of I-10, however points N of I-10 could very well have a decent ice threat Tuesday night and Wednesday. KBPT may see ZR late early Tuesday into Wednesday. Temps. should hover in the low to mid 30's through the entire period.

BTW Flash Flood Watch hoisted W of I-45. 2-3 inches already from Co. CO to Austin CO. Slow moving and training heavy band of thunderstorms really putting down the rain in the cold air. May need to extend the FFA eastward to include all areas later tonight...may see flash flood threat over SW LA where soils are still very wet on Sunday.

[HouTXmetro]

Hmm... after reading TXGale's post I stepped outside. Little tendrils of noticeably colder air drifting in on a slight NW breeze. Is it really the beginning of FROPA or just downdrafts from storms just west of here?

Well if it's 36/37 in Brenham I'm yhinking this is the real DEAL!!!

[TXGale]

Temp is now 60 at my house. North wind is blowing. Light rain. It's here

[jeff]

I am in a rural area near Centerville,Tx and confused about the freeze line over Central Texas. Since we do not have a local met we get our weather from Bryan/College Station and Waco. The Waco met said the front may back up as a warm front and that would keep the rain around but possibly no ice. It has been raining all day and the temp stayed around 37. Does anyone have any thoughts about the forecast for this area, Centerville is on I-45 half way between Dallas and Houston.

The front will not back up as a warm front. Front should continue slowly to the coast and then conform to the coastline. Freezing line will progress toward your area tonight with freezing rain likley Sunday and Sunday night with ice accumulation. Waco is down to 33 and upstream temps are in the lower 30's...additionally the secondary arctic surge over OK should arrive over N TX Sunday and that will also help in lowering the temp. below freezing.

Main thrust of ZR should be south of you Monday through Wednesday.

[JenBayles]

Yep - I can now confirm FROPA under the Bear Creek Dome. Getting some gusty N and NW winds with light rain. Don't think the Dome will save us from the heavy rain tonite. <now where did I pack those flannels away?>

[TexasStooge]

Temperatures here are hovering somewhere between 32 and 33 in 10-hour period.

[JenBayles]

I've noticed several public forecasts mentioning the front backing up as a warm front. Is there one particular model, or model agreement indicating such? Just curious where that's coming from.

[wxman57]

I've noticed several public forecasts mentioning the front backing up as a warm front. Is there one particular model, or model agreement indicating such? Just curious where that's coming from.

That's just inexperienced meteorologists paying attention to the GFS model. The GFS model often forecasts Arctic air backing up as a warm front when an upper-level disturbance moves by. Never happens, though.

[JenBayles]

A moment of levity for the declining minds in the group... I just flipped over to TWC, and a man in OKC was interviewed about the winter weather there. He said he wasn't really concerned and was looking at it as an opportunity to make some "storm soup". I like that! A man after my own heart.

[jeff]

Arctic frontal boundary moving slowly through Harris County.

Flash Flood Watch issued W of I-45...may need to be extended eastward.

Temp is 37 at Brenham and 72 at IAH. Front extends along a line from Conroe to Tomball to Katy at 715pm and is moving SE at 5mph. Frontal speed has picked up some this evening the front should be through metro Houston by midnight and off the coast Sunday morning with strong cold air advection overtaking the region and temps. falling into the 30's and 40's.

Flash Flood Threat:

Training thunderstorms extend from SE of College Station to Sealy to Wharton where rainfall has exceeded 2-3 inches since 400pm. Flood threat is increasing as very moist Gulf air is lift over the shallow frontal slope and training is resulting in storms being anchored over the same areas. PWS of 1.75 inches are near Jan maxes and supporting 1-2 inch per hour rainfall rates. Some concern we may be getting into a similar situation as last night over C TX where 3-5 inches of rain fell per cloud top cooling.

Winter Storm Threat remains for early next week and previous forecast holds.

[JenBayles]

I've noticed several public forecasts mentioning the front backing up as a warm front. Is there one particular model, or model agreement indicating such? Just curious where that's coming from.

That's just inexperienced meteorologists paying attention to the GFS model. The GFS model often forecasts Arctic air backing up as a warm front when an upper-level disturbance moves by. Never happens, though.

Thanks wxman - I wondered if once again, the GFS was the culprit. Figures!

[jeff]

N TX update

Freezing line progressing through N TX at this time.

Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for the metro areas.

Although freezing rain has slacken this evening expect widespread development overnight as numerous ripples of upper level energy pull across the area. Suspect most area will fall below freezing by midday Sunday with heavy icing.

Will keep 1/2 to 1.0 inch of ice widespread over N TX with greatest amounts W of I-35. May see some ice totals up to 1.5 inches or greater given duration of freezing rain a expected temps. in the upper 20's or lower as secondary arctic surge crosses the region.

[TrekkerCC]

For the pro mets on the board, can you help me with this one? Steve McCauley in his forecast tonight said that warm air (at the upper level) in shallow dense cold air situations such as this could be drawn down to the lower levels if the rain is hard enough, and thus spiking the temperatures to above freezing. He offers this as a "best case" (improbable) scenario for us tomorrow. I saw this today when DFW was at 32 degrees, and then briefly touched 34 degrees after a thunderstorm. How often can/does this occur in borderline icing situations? Is there any prominent examples of this phenomenon? Are there any meteorological clues that could suggest that this scenario may happen (strong vertical velocities, etc)?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

temp dropping northside of Tomball , 57.2*F and falling and raining......

[Tamora]

TrekkerCC is this what you are talking about????
from: http://www.wfaa.com
8:00 p.m. There are 3 main storm systems affecting North Texas. The first one passed during the day, and the second will arrive by morning. This second one could bring moderate to heavy freezing rain to the DFW area. However, if it rains hard enough, warm air aloft could be brought down to the surface and melt much of the ice in the local area! Although this is a possibility, it is not a likelihood. The third and final wave will arrive Sunday night and Monday morning bringing light freezing rain along with gusty north winds. Therefore, if enough ice manages to accumulate on area trees and power lines, these gusty winds could threaten serious power outages by causing ice-ladened tree limbs to fall on power lines. However, if we do get a temperature spike during the day Sunday with temperatures climbing above freezing, this threat will be minimized. WFAA Meteorologist Steve McCauley

[TrekkerCC]

TrekkerCC is this what you are talking about????
from: http://www.wfaa.com
8:00 p.m. There are 3 main storm systems affecting North Texas. The first one passed during the day, and the second will arrive by morning. This second one could bring moderate to heavy freezing rain to the DFW area. However, if it rains hard enough, warm air aloft could be brought down to the surface and melt much of the ice in the local area! Although this is a possibility, it is not a likelihood. The third and final wave will arrive Sunday night and Monday morning bringing light freezing rain along with gusty north winds. Therefore, if enough ice manages to accumulate on area trees and power lines, these gusty winds could threaten serious power outages by causing ice-ladened tree limbs to fall on power lines. However, if we do get a temperature spike during the day Sunday with temperatures climbing above freezing, this threat will be minimized. WFAA Meteorologist Steve McCauley

Yes, that is it. He stated this possible scenario a few times during the 6pm newscast. It was surprising to me as I had not heard this from NWS or other meteorologists.