This is the coldest run of the Ensembles that I have ever seen. Winter is locked in and its going to get a lot worse before it gets better.
Ensembles(Noon Run): Scroll through hours 96-384 Ensemble Mean 500 hPa Height with Normalized Ensemble Spread.
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 11312.html
The Ensembles....
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aggiecutter
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The Ensembles....
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That's a very good link. Thanks. I've been watching the ens. runs for a while and every run is colder than the one before.
The thing I think to keep in mind is that the first arctic plunge we see now is just that, the first. If you want to think about it, this is probably the first in a series of cold blasts that we will see and each one will progressively get colder - especially since the polar vortex will be sitting there over the Hudson.
As long as that's there, spilling the cold air south, it'll progressively get colder and more and more snowpack moves southwards.
I think with a pattern like this we'll probably see an historic blast by the middle of February. I really think so - maybe the coldest since 1994 or 1996.
The thing I think to keep in mind is that the first arctic plunge we see now is just that, the first. If you want to think about it, this is probably the first in a series of cold blasts that we will see and each one will progressively get colder - especially since the polar vortex will be sitting there over the Hudson.
As long as that's there, spilling the cold air south, it'll progressively get colder and more and more snowpack moves southwards.
I think with a pattern like this we'll probably see an historic blast by the middle of February. I really think so - maybe the coldest since 1994 or 1996.
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cctxhurricanewatcher
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JonathanBelles
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JonathanBelles
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Tamora wrote:double D wrote:JenBayles wrote:Wish I could understand them!
Yeah Jen, It is very confusing if you don't know what to look for. I'm still trying to learn how to read them myself.
I was thinking the same thing
I am still trying to figure out the times of the model runs 0z 12z etc...
its 1 and 7 am/pm right now ( i think).
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wx247
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0z is 7 pm central and 12z is 7 am central. That is the time the model run occurs. The data isn't released until later.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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HarlequinBoy
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Siberian Express
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wx247 wrote:0z is 7 pm central and 12z is 7 am central. That is the time the model run occurs. The data isn't released until later.
Actually, O zulu is 6 pm CST, midnite London (Greenwich mean) and 12 zulu is 6am CST.
your posted times are OK when we are observing daylight savings time.
http://wwp.greenwichmeantime.com/
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Air Force Met
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fact789 wrote:Tamora wrote:double D wrote:JenBayles wrote:Wish I could understand them!
Yeah Jen, It is very confusing if you don't know what to look for. I'm still trying to learn how to read them myself.
I was thinking the same thing
I am still trying to figure out the times of the model runs 0z 12z etc...
its 1 and 7 am/pm right now ( i think).
If you are in the eastern time zone...
6 am/pm and 12am/pm if you are in the central...plus the RUC runs hourly...and others run...well...it gets confusing.
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Air Force Met
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Zulu=GMT....what time it is in ENgland (Basically). So...right now...the east is 5 hours behind GMT (Zulu)...the Central is 6 hours...and so on.\
So...when it is 0600 here (central)...is is 1200 there (12Z).
When it is 1300 here (1 pm) it is 1900 there (1300 + 6)...so it is 19Z.
When it is the 14th at 2200 (8 pm) here...it is the 15th at 0200 there...so it is 15/02Z.
When daylight savings time comes...take an hour from all of that...you'll be -4, -5...etc
So...when it is 0600 here (central)...is is 1200 there (12Z).
When it is 1300 here (1 pm) it is 1900 there (1300 + 6)...so it is 19Z.
When it is the 14th at 2200 (8 pm) here...it is the 15th at 0200 there...so it is 15/02Z.
When daylight savings time comes...take an hour from all of that...you'll be -4, -5...etc
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