TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

#141 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:42 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Front now inside the loop! Weather stations down in the NW loop are quickly dropping into the 60s. Looks to reach downtown within the hour.

Looks almost like it is speeding up some.

what loop?

#142 Postby **wall_cloud** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:43 pm

JenBayles wrote:Horrible! And how many people religiously refer to a given station for ALL their weather info? How about "downright dangerous" to publicize that forecast in this situation? I would much prefer to see a forecast err on the worst case side so at least people will have a chance to do some prep.

That is as big a problem as "under-forecasting" an event. If you go worst case scenario and it doesn't pan out, millions of dollars can be wasted on preperation for the storm. Road crews, overtime, emergency management, extra fuel for airlines, etc. Sure its good to be prepared but you have to err on the side of caution with a pessimistic forecast.

HouTXmetro · #143 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:43 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Front now inside the loop! Weather stations down in the NW loop are quickly dropping into the 60s. Looks to reach downtown within the hour.

Looks almost like it is speeding up some.

Inside the belt or 610?

#144 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
JenBayles wrote:I've noticed several public forecasts mentioning the front backing up as a warm front. Is there one particular model, or model agreement indicating such? Just curious where that's coming from.

That's just inexperienced meteorologists paying attention to the GFS model. The GFS model often forecasts Arctic air backing up as a warm front when an upper-level disturbance moves by. Never happens, though.

Yep...that is inexperience talking. Those guys need some serious schooling in Arctic fronts.

Hopefully the NWS still writes bust reviews...because they are still busting.

aggiecutter · #145 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:47 pm

Question for the board, particularly the pro mets. The current weather map shows a reinforcing shot of cold air entering the US from Canada--see link below. When, if, is this air supposed to get here. I just looked at the models, and they dont seem to have a handle on it.

Current Weather Maps:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surfa ... _analy.gif

Extremeweatherguy · #146 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:48 pm

fact789 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Front now inside the loop! Weather stations down in the NW loop are quickly dropping into the 60s. Looks to reach downtown within the hour.

Looks almost like it is speeding up some.

what loop?

the outer one (the belt): http://www.chinatownconnection.com/imag ... on-map.gif <<here's a map since you live in Tampa.

However, it is quickly approaching the 610 loop and will likely be there sooner than later.

Currently the leading edge of the front extends from near Meadows to Hedwig Village to up toward Westfield.

#147 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:50 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:cold front has come through here! I am getting heavy rain with temps. in the 50s right now! Looks like that high of 62F tomorrow will not be happening.

Nope...not sure what they were thinking (unless it is one of those Highs at 1201 AM sort of things...)...Horrible forecast.

Angleton's High is 69...

cctxhurricanewatcher · #148 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:53 pm

After a faily windy day which is tell tale sign that a very strong front is to our north with a low pressure center of some sort, the winds are almost nothing right now here in Corpus. The calm before the storm.

#149 Postby **wall_cloud** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:54 pm

double D wrote:Interesting to note that Amarillo has gone from 18 to 20 within the last couple of hours. Is the air modifying a little bit or is it something else?

low-level flow has become more easterly in the past few hours ahead of the next upper-level system. This is an upslope component that is likely bringing deeper moisture into the panhandle. We have quite a bit of fog in place and this very slight rise in temps could be an effect of the latent heat from this condensation. Goodland, KS is at -7 F. That's cold!

HouTXmetro · #150 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:57 pm

Amazing, the front is already SW of Houston in Rosenberg!!!!!!

Also SPring Branch just outside of the Inner 610 Loop is indicating FRONPA...... Downtown arrival is imminent.

BestWxMan · #151 Postby **BestWxMan** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:01 pm

No one has mentioned anything about the ice potential in SW Louisiana or North Louisiana for that matter. Just curious to see what the other mets in here think.

Extremeweatherguy · #152 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:02 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Amazing, the front is already SW of Houston in Rosenberg!!!!!!

Also SPring Branch just outside of the Inner 610 Loop is indicating FRONPA...... Downtown arrival is imminent.

yeah, and that little NWS "update" they had tonight has pretty much BUSTED. Hard to believe they did that horribly at just THREE HOURS out! :roll:

#153 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:03 pm

BestWxMan wrote:No one has mentioned anything about the ice potential in SW Louisiana or North Louisiana for that matter. Just curious to see what the other mets in here think.

Where are you at, Best... North or south?

BestWxMan · #154 Postby **BestWxMan** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:06 pm

At home right now in SW Louisiana, but I gotta go back to North Louisiana Monday for school. I am leaning towards not going with everything I've looked at. Looks pretty bad from what I gather.

#155 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:09 pm

BestWxMan wrote:At home right now in SW Louisiana, but I gotta go back to North Louisiana Monday for school. I am leaning towards not going with everything I've looked at. Looks pretty bad from what I gather.

It could be a big zero for North LA, though. I can't find anyone or any data saying that the Northern Gulf States are in trouble. I'm trying to stay on top of it, though, because it makes a big difference to me.

#156 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:11 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/sectors/hgx.php#tabs

accoring to this the front is supposed to move north.

im confused. bad technology?

#157 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:13 pm

Finally, some info that seems useful from Jackson, MS NWS Office

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
640 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>038-040>045-
047>050-053-054-059>061-141100-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-EAST CARROLL-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-
GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-ISSAQUENA-JEFFERSON-LEAKE-LEFLORE-
LOWNDES-MADISON LA-MADISON MS-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-OKTIBBEHA-
RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SUNFLOWER-TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-
WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
640 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

...ARCTIC AIR POISED TO INVADE FOR MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY...

ARCTIC AIR SPILLING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE COUNTRY WAS
HEADING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
JUST IN TIME FOR THE MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY ON MONDAY. WHILE
MISSISSIPPI WAS BASKING IN A MID JANUARY THAW WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY...THE
ARCTIC AIR LURKED CLOSE BY WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND EVEN COLDER
ALREADY FROM DALLAS TEXAS TO SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI.

THE ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY ARRIVING IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR
WILL THEN REACH ALL OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MONDAY MORNING AND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE
FALLING ALL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE 30S
WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY WHERE LIGHT RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO THE FREEZING MARK OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING WHEN SOME ICING COULD BEGIN ON ELEVATED
OBJECTS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A GRENADA TO YAZOO
CITY MISSISSIPPI TO WINNSBORO LOUISIANA LINE. HOWEVER AT THE SAME
TIME...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FORECAST DILEMMA WILL BE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS INTO THE
SUBFREEZING PORTION OF THE COLD AIR MONDAY NIGHT.

SEVERAL UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER
SCENARIO IN REGARD TO HOW FAST THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVES IN AND
EXACTLY WHEN THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BEHIND THE FRONT. RESIDENTS OF
THE ARK-LA-MISS REGION SHOULD STAY IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHERIMPACTS.

aggiecutter · #158 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:14 pm

Canada has reloaded with cold air remarkably fast. Temps in south central Canada had modified in to the lower single digits below zero to near zero by mid-day. Now a reinforcing shot has entered south-central Canada and now temps are back down to 20-40 below. Is this the reinforcing front the NWS is talking about? I was under the impression the reinforcing front was in Oklahoma, and thought it was nothing more than a wind shift line with slightly lower temps and dewpoints. If the front currently entering the northern US makes it down to the Gulf Coast by tomorrow night, that would be amazing.

Current Temps:Notice the reinforcing shot in Canada.It wasnt there at mid-day:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/dewpoint.gif

#159 Postby **wall_cloud** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:15 pm

fact789 wrote:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/sectors/hgx.php#tabs

accoring to this the front is supposed to move north.

im confused. bad technology?

not poor technology. That's the actual HGX forecast. The zone product is created directly from those images.

#160 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Sat Jan 13, 2007 10:19 pm

aggiecutter wrote:Canada has reloaded with cold air remarkably fast. Temps in south central Canada had modified in to the lower single digits below zero to near zero by mid-day. Now a reinforcing shot has entered south-central Canada and now temps are back down to 20-40 below. Is this the reinforcing front the NWS is talking about? I was under the impression the reinforcing front was in Oklahoma, and thought it was nothing more than a wind shift line with slightly lower temps and dewpoints. If the front currently entering the northern US makes it down to the Gulf Coast by tomorrow night, that would be amazing.

Current Temps:Notice the reinforcing shot in Canada.It wasnt there at mid-day:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/surface/dewpoint.gif

I was looking at the satellite shot of that area and noticing a big surge of clouds following that cold air.

http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&hours=12

TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

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