TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Air Force Met]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphical/sectors/hgx.php#tabs


accoring to this the front is supposed to move north.

im confused. bad technology?

not poor technology. That's the actual HGX forecast. The zone product is created directly from those images.

Yeah...and it's not one of those high right after midnight things either...

They are calling for a high of 69 at Angleton...at 3PM...

My...that is a terrible forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I noticed that the NWS has lowered my low back down to 45F and my high to 56F for tomorrow, but that is still too warm IMO for the high (I think I should be closer to the forecast they have in Waller..a high of 46F). I guess we'll see..

Anything is better than the 62F forecast though.

[wall_cloud]

agreed AFM. newby? not sure.

just for the record for those that don't know...the high temp in the zones are from 7 am to 7 pm. lows are from 7 pm to 8 am.

[vbhoutex]

I will be one of the first to defend the NWS, etc. when they need defending and we do have a policy against "bashing" any of the professional weather services, BUT, a badly busted forecast is a badly busted forecast and that is what we are seeing.

Hopefully those that are busting and THERE ARE MANY, will learn from this event!!!

Thanks to the WONDERFUL AND INFORMATIVE PRO METS we are graced with here at STORM2K we are all in the know and not going to be surprised by the upcoming weather, whatever it turns out to be.

[wall_cloud]

I noticed that the NWS has lowered my low back down to 45F and my high to 56F for tomorrow, but that is still too warm IMO for the high (I think I should be closer to the forecast they have in Waller..a high of 46F). I guess we'll see..

Anything is better than the 62F forecast though.

I'd be surprised if you hit 50.

[Yankeegirl]

Does anyone still think the threat of the ice storm is still in the forecast? I was out weddin' dress shoppin' all day... but didnt hear the news yet...

[southerngale]

No one has mentioned anything about the ice potential in SW Louisiana or North Louisiana for that matter. Just curious to see what the other mets in here think.

Jeff, a pro met in Houston, did reply about SW LA on page 6:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 60#1508460

[wxman57]

FROPA in Westbury near Hillcroft and W. Belfort. Temperature dropping into the 50s as of 9:45pm.

[JenBayles]

Horrible! And how many people religiously refer to a given station for ALL their weather info? How about "downright dangerous" to publicize that forecast in this situation? I would much prefer to see a forecast err on the worst case side so at least people will have a chance to do some prep.

That is as big a problem as "under-forecasting" an event. If you go worst case scenario and it doesn't pan out, millions of dollars can be wasted on preperation for the storm. Road crews, overtime, emergency management, extra fuel for airlines, etc. Sure its good to be prepared but you have to err on the side of caution with a pessimistic forecast.

OK - please forgive my ignorance, but this issue goes back to a post I made last night. Many people are wondering why the NWS and OCMs keep going with model guidance (higher temps, slower FROPA, less icing, etc.). I wondered if it was more prudent for the official NWS offices to go with "under-forecasting" due to political pressures. For example, if certain warnings are issued, that triggers city/county OEM offices to take specific actions: authorize OT, get equipment and material moved to key locations, blah blah blah. In other words, just issuing a weather warning costs a whole lot of money for something that may never happen. You really think city and county authorities aren't in contact with say, Bill Read out of HGX on these issues when all that money is at stake? When you have computer model data to fall back on, that's the CYA.

I could certainly understand an OCM presenting the model data to the public, but I really wish they would also put their personal opinions out there based on their education, training, and observations. We're not total idiots. What's wrong with telling the general public, "The models say it won't be that bad, but my opinion is X, so plan accordingly just in case."??

OK, I'll jump off the soap box.

[teal61]

Wow..just took a look at the 00z NAM and it seems to paint an ugly picture around here in the TUE-WED timeframe. wxman57 have you looked at it and if so what do you think?

My PWS


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXSPRIN14

[wxman57]

Wow..just took a look at the 00z NAM and it seems to paint an ugly picture around here in the TUE-WED timeframe. wxman57 have you looked at it and if so what do you think?

My PWS


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXSPRIN14

NAM is probably better on temps than GFS. GFS shows nothing frozen here until near the end of the precip. I'd lean toward the NAM for precip type.

[JenBayles]

I will be one of the first to defend the NWS, etc. when they need defending and we do have a policy against "bashing" any of the professional weather services, BUT, a badly busted forecast is a badly busted forecast and that is what we are seeing.

Hopefully those that are busting and THERE ARE MANY, will learn from this event!!!

Thanks to the WONDERFUL AND INFORMATIVE PRO METS we are graced with here at STORM2K we are all in the know and not going to be surprised by the upcoming weather, whatever it turns out to be.

DITTO what you said!

[wall_cloud]

OK - please forgive my ignorance, but this issue goes back to a post I made last night. Many people are wondering why the NWS and OCMs keep going with model guidance (higher temps, slower FROPA, less icing, etc.). I wondered if it was more prudent for the official NWS offices to go with "under-forecasting" due to political pressures. For example, if certain warnings are issued, that triggers city/county OEM offices to take specific actions: authorize OT, get equipment and material moved to key locations, blah blah blah. In other words, just issuing a weather warning costs a whole lot of money for something that may never happen. You really think city and county authorities aren't in contact with say, Bill Read out of HGX on these issues when all that money is at stake? When you have computer model data to fall back on, that's the CYA.

you aren't ignorant on the subject. I just thought I would throw in my 2 cents. I am also not saying that under-forecasting is done for political reasons. I'm just saying that there is a lot on the line. Forecasters get gunshy going after the homerun (whipping the model) after a big bust or two and it takes a while to get your confidence back. I also do know that city/county/state officials are in contact with the NWS. they don't necessarily use the public products as much as they lean on conference calls and phone calls. There is room on your soapbox for everyone!

[teal61]

Well if I'm reading it right, the 2m temps drop below freezing in northern Harris cty Monday night at around (00z Tue) and the freezing line moves all the way to the coast and pretty much stays that way for the remainder of the run. Some very cold air to the north for sure.

[JenBayles]

I noticed that the NWS has lowered my low back down to 45F and my high to 56F for tomorrow, but that is still too warm IMO for the high (I think I should be closer to the forecast they have in Waller..a high of 46F). I guess we'll see..

Anything is better than the 62F forecast though.

Same thing here EWG. Closest area for me is Jersey Village (or maybe Cypress), and here's what I have from NWS:

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 55. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

As fast as the thermometer is dropping, I'm not real convinced about that 55 degree high for tomorrow, but what do I know?

[Tireman4]

Maybe this is the nature of the beast (frontwise), but the front has passed Bush, but not me. Granted I am east of the airport (5 miles), but this is odd. Temperature at 10:15 in Atascosita (Humble), 68.9.

[double D]

KSAT meteorologist out of San Antonio said that he would not be surprised if WWW were up until possibly Thursday.

I think that might be a bit overdone but who knows with this wacky weather.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Cold front has reached downtown Houston and most NW suburbs are now only in the lower 50s (compared to lower 70s a few hours ago). Looks like temps. should hold steady or fall slowly tomorrow before a colder surge of air really drops things off tomorrow night. Latest model runs (0z) still indicate very cold air with the threat of a winter storm from Monday through Wednesday.

Going to be an interesting ride indeed (and scary at times too)..

[teal61]

Looking at the 00z models the KSAT met might be right. Surely the Houston NWS will put up a winter storm watch in the morning. But I bet they will "want to look at a few more model runs" before they decide and it doesnt come up until tommorow afternoon.

[Stratosphere747]

Winter weather aside...

The flooding issues to the west are the biggest issues right now.