TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Mattie
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North Texas (Plano/McKinney) area has had mixed winter weather. McKinney has basically seen nothing and Plano at least got icing in the trees and a few small puddles. (we are about 13 miles apart) The weather reports on tv are sort of backsliding now saying that the morning should bring the majority of our winter weather. I have been hoping all day for ice and have seen nothing. I'm betting that maybe the front line is going to miss our little corner of the metroplex. I don't know why, but it seems that we miss the weather events of any kind in this little area. Oh well, an update in the morning, and if nothing, then there is always a possibility next time. 
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HouTXmetro
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Dr. Jonah Rainwater
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Mattie wrote:North Texas (Plano/McKinney) area has had mixed winter weather. McKinney has basically seen nothing and Plano at least got icing in the trees and a few small puddles. (we are about 13 miles apart) The weather reports on tv are sort of backsliding now saying that the morning should bring the majority of our winter weather. I have been hoping all day for ice and have seen nothing. I'm betting that maybe the front line is going to miss our little corner of the metroplex. I don't know why, but it seems that we miss the weather events of any kind in this little area. Oh well, an update in the morning, and if nothing, then there is always a possibility next time.
Yeah, so far my corner of Plano/Frisco has some iced branches and that's about it...had 3"+ of rain earlier, which is now either drying or freezing. The grass still feels spongy to walk on; the NWS website still shows our temp as 32.
Tomorrow afternoon I'm delivering pizzas to the East Plano/Murphy area from 3pm till 10....let me tell you I am NOT looking forward to it!
Hopefully the worst of the ice will pass us to the NW.
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Extremeweatherguy
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Looks like Houston's high temperature will officially be in the mid to upper 50s for tomorrow (low 50s in Tomball) as the midnight hour is already fast approaching. However, by afternoon, I think 40s will be the rule across most of the Houston metro and by evening we should slip into the 30s as CAA continues to pump in the chilly weather. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow watching as the numbers fall, the latest forecasts/models come out, and seeing how the media reacts to the likely watches and warnings that will be issued.
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JenBayles
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Mattie wrote:North Texas (Plano/McKinney) area has had mixed winter weather. McKinney has basically seen nothing and Plano at least got icing in the trees and a few small puddles. (we are about 13 miles apart) The weather reports on tv are sort of backsliding now saying that the morning should bring the majority of our winter weather. I have been hoping all day for ice and have seen nothing. I'm betting that maybe the front line is going to miss our little corner of the metroplex. I don't know why, but it seems that we miss the weather events of any kind in this little area. Oh well, an update in the morning, and if nothing, then there is always a possibility next time.
I'm guessing you don't own any property or need to go anywhere anytime soon. Wish I was so lucky...
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Extremeweatherguy
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CAA seems to really be starting up now for parts of Houston. Many areas west and NW of town are rapidly dropping into the 40s right now and in places like Brenham and College Station they are well into the 30s. There is even an unofficial report of it being as cold as 40-degrees right now down by Sugar Land.
Should be interesting to see what the temperatures are like when we wake up tomorrow.
http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999
Should be interesting to see what the temperatures are like when we wake up tomorrow.
http://www.wunderground.com/stationmaps ... &wmo=99999
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Extremeweatherguy
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HarlequinBoy
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...
HERE`S THE PRELIM NUMBERS AND HAZARDS. WILL SEND OUT REASONING
AFTER GETTING THE PRODUCTS OUT AS IT MAY TAKE A WHILE... 47/41
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Maybe they're going to put up watching or warnings now?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
359 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...
HERE`S THE PRELIM NUMBERS AND HAZARDS. WILL SEND OUT REASONING
AFTER GETTING THE PRODUCTS OUT AS IT MAY TAKE A WHILE... 47/41
--
Maybe they're going to put up watching or warnings now?
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Austin/San Antonio NWS.... The understatement of the year....
DISCUSSION...WOW! WHAT A MESS! COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. BUT IN THE MEANTIME, MORE HEAVY RAIN IS ON THE WAY AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET HEADS NORTHEAST INTO MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS ARE STILL NEAR SATURATION FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINS SO RAPID RUNOFF IS LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A NEW SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOVING THRU THE ENTIRE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CWA BY MIDNIGHT. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO COVER MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY EAST TO THE NORTHEAST CWA BY DAWN MONDAY. OVERRUNNING FROM BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE SOURCES WILL ENSUE OVER THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN IN THE SUBFREEZING LAYER. SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING A CHANGEOVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS. THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY..THEREBY RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIEST FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE DEEPENS, THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW..ALTHOUGH AT THE PRESENT TIME ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES FRIDAY, A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MORE OVERRUNNING RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...WOW! WHAT A MESS! COMPLEX WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. BUT IN THE MEANTIME, MORE HEAVY RAIN IS ON THE WAY AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET HEADS NORTHEAST INTO MEXICO TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS ARE STILL NEAR SATURATION FROM YESTERDAY`S RAINS SO RAPID RUNOFF IS LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A NEW SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOVING THRU THE ENTIRE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CWA BY MIDNIGHT. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD TO COVER MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY EAST TO THE NORTHEAST CWA BY DAWN MONDAY. OVERRUNNING FROM BOTH PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE SOURCES WILL ENSUE OVER THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN IN THE SUBFREEZING LAYER. SOUNDING PROGS INDICATE OVERRUNNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING A CHANGEOVER FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS. THERE COULD BE SOME DAMAGING ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY..THEREBY RECEIVING THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIEST FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT.
AS THE ARCTIC RIDGE DEEPENS, THE FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW..ALTHOUGH AT THE PRESENT TIME ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED. THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET CONTINUES FRIDAY, A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA WILL PRODUCE MORE OVERRUNNING RAIN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
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Winter Storm Watch issued for the following counties in SE TX: Brazos, Burleson, Madison, Grimes, Houston, Trinity, Walker and Washington.
Major Winter Storm to affect a large part of TX.
Potentially damaging ice storm to impact a large part of SE TX late Monday through Wednesday
Discussion:
Arctic frontal boundary approaching the coast this morning with temps in the mid to upper 30's NW to 50 metro Houston to mid 60's along the island. Highs have already been reached for the day and temps. will fall slowly over the next 24 hours. Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as next short wave approaches and lifts deep moisture over the cold surface dome. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for our N and W counties where several inches of rain fell last night.
Precip/P-type:
Secondary arctic surge moving through N TX will reach SE TX Monday. Moisture and disturbances will overrun the increasingly cold surface dome resulting in a good threat for freezing rain and sleet.
Will onset the freezing rain and icing in the Watch area Monday afternoon and bring it into metro Houston Monday evening. Will continue freezing rain and sleet mixture all day Tuesday and Tuesday night and begin to taper off Wednesday morning. Temps. should fall to freezing late Monday in the metro areas and remain below freezing through midday Wednesday. May see more sleet Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as the cold air depth deepens.
Accumulations:
Could see some hefty accumulations with prolonged nature of this event. Concern is growing for the well being of vegetation and power infrastructure. Additionally, this is going to be a widespread event affecting nearly the entire state.
Expect widespread .25 to .75 of an inch of glazing with upwards of an inch possible. Such accumulations will be devastating to the area with trees at their breaking point Tuesday midday. ETA/NAM progs QPF of freezing rain of .4 to .8 through the subfreezing period.
Travel:
Can pretty much forget any kind of surface travel after Monday evening across the metro areas as freezing rain begins glazing area bridges and overpasses. Glazing will only worsen with time as roadway surfaces cool and ice begins to accumulate on surface roads and freeway main lanes. Public works departments and TXDOT will likely begin sanding operations late Monday and continue non stop through Wednesday in an attempt to keep roadways somewhat open. Ice accumulation over time will likely overwhelm such operations and traction on sanded surfaces is only marginal at best.
Aviation:
Expect big problems at the local airports starting Monday afternoon as aircraft will require rigorous de-icing. Heavy icing of the control surfaces can be expected through 2500 ft and aircraft may be sent back multiple times to de-ice before departing. Expect very long delays due to de-icing operations and numerous cancellations.
Preparations:
Persons should be prepared for an extended period of subfreezing temps. and very dangerous driving conditions starting late Monday. Expect power outages to begin early Tuesday as ice coated tree limbs break and take down power lines. Residents should be prepared for power outages and lack of heating sources. Pipes and sprinkler systems should be prepared for subfreezing temps. Plants should be covered and braced for heavy icing.
Forecast for Harris and surrounding counties:
Today: cloudy and much colder with temps. falling through the 40's. An 80% chance of rain. N winds 5-10mph
Tonight: cloudy and cold with temps. falling into the upper 30's. A 70% chance of rain. N winds 10-15mph
Monday: cloudy and very cold with temps. falling into the low to mid 30's. A 70% chance of rain becoming freezing rain late. Ice accumulations of less than 1/10 of an inch.
Monday night: Winter Storm/Ice Storm Conditions, cloudy and very cold with a 70% chance of freezing rain and sleet. New ice accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 an inch. Near steady temps. in the upper 20's. N winds 10-15mph.
Tuesday: Winter Storm/Ice Storm Conditions, cloudy and very cold with near steady temps. in the upper 20's. A 70% chance of freezing rain and sleet. New ice accumulation of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch. N winds 10-15mph.
Tuesday night: Winter Storm/Ice Storm Conditions, cloudy and very cold with temps. steady in the upper 20's. A 50% chance of freezing rain changing to sleet possibly mixed with snow after midnight. New ice accumulation of 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch.
Wednesday: Cloudy and very cold with a 30% chance of morning sleet. Temps. steady in the upper 20's to low 30's. New accumulation of ice 1/16 to 1/8 of an inch.
Wednesday night: cloudy and cold with a 30% chance of sleet. Temps. steady in the upper 20's and low 30's. New Accumulation less than 1/10 of an inch.
Thursday: cloudy and cold with highs in the mid 30's. A 40% chance of morning freezing rain and sleet changing to rain by afternoon.
Major Winter Storm to affect a large part of TX.
Potentially damaging ice storm to impact a large part of SE TX late Monday through Wednesday
Discussion:
Arctic frontal boundary approaching the coast this morning with temps in the mid to upper 30's NW to 50 metro Houston to mid 60's along the island. Highs have already been reached for the day and temps. will fall slowly over the next 24 hours. Expect an increase in showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as next short wave approaches and lifts deep moisture over the cold surface dome. Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for our N and W counties where several inches of rain fell last night.
Precip/P-type:
Secondary arctic surge moving through N TX will reach SE TX Monday. Moisture and disturbances will overrun the increasingly cold surface dome resulting in a good threat for freezing rain and sleet.
Will onset the freezing rain and icing in the Watch area Monday afternoon and bring it into metro Houston Monday evening. Will continue freezing rain and sleet mixture all day Tuesday and Tuesday night and begin to taper off Wednesday morning. Temps. should fall to freezing late Monday in the metro areas and remain below freezing through midday Wednesday. May see more sleet Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night as the cold air depth deepens.
Accumulations:
Could see some hefty accumulations with prolonged nature of this event. Concern is growing for the well being of vegetation and power infrastructure. Additionally, this is going to be a widespread event affecting nearly the entire state.
Expect widespread .25 to .75 of an inch of glazing with upwards of an inch possible. Such accumulations will be devastating to the area with trees at their breaking point Tuesday midday. ETA/NAM progs QPF of freezing rain of .4 to .8 through the subfreezing period.
Travel:
Can pretty much forget any kind of surface travel after Monday evening across the metro areas as freezing rain begins glazing area bridges and overpasses. Glazing will only worsen with time as roadway surfaces cool and ice begins to accumulate on surface roads and freeway main lanes. Public works departments and TXDOT will likely begin sanding operations late Monday and continue non stop through Wednesday in an attempt to keep roadways somewhat open. Ice accumulation over time will likely overwhelm such operations and traction on sanded surfaces is only marginal at best.
Aviation:
Expect big problems at the local airports starting Monday afternoon as aircraft will require rigorous de-icing. Heavy icing of the control surfaces can be expected through 2500 ft and aircraft may be sent back multiple times to de-ice before departing. Expect very long delays due to de-icing operations and numerous cancellations.
Preparations:
Persons should be prepared for an extended period of subfreezing temps. and very dangerous driving conditions starting late Monday. Expect power outages to begin early Tuesday as ice coated tree limbs break and take down power lines. Residents should be prepared for power outages and lack of heating sources. Pipes and sprinkler systems should be prepared for subfreezing temps. Plants should be covered and braced for heavy icing.
Forecast for Harris and surrounding counties:
Today: cloudy and much colder with temps. falling through the 40's. An 80% chance of rain. N winds 5-10mph
Tonight: cloudy and cold with temps. falling into the upper 30's. A 70% chance of rain. N winds 10-15mph
Monday: cloudy and very cold with temps. falling into the low to mid 30's. A 70% chance of rain becoming freezing rain late. Ice accumulations of less than 1/10 of an inch.
Monday night: Winter Storm/Ice Storm Conditions, cloudy and very cold with a 70% chance of freezing rain and sleet. New ice accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 an inch. Near steady temps. in the upper 20's. N winds 10-15mph.
Tuesday: Winter Storm/Ice Storm Conditions, cloudy and very cold with near steady temps. in the upper 20's. A 70% chance of freezing rain and sleet. New ice accumulation of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch. N winds 10-15mph.
Tuesday night: Winter Storm/Ice Storm Conditions, cloudy and very cold with temps. steady in the upper 20's. A 50% chance of freezing rain changing to sleet possibly mixed with snow after midnight. New ice accumulation of 1/10 to 1/4 of an inch.
Wednesday: Cloudy and very cold with a 30% chance of morning sleet. Temps. steady in the upper 20's to low 30's. New accumulation of ice 1/16 to 1/8 of an inch.
Wednesday night: cloudy and cold with a 30% chance of sleet. Temps. steady in the upper 20's and low 30's. New Accumulation less than 1/10 of an inch.
Thursday: cloudy and cold with highs in the mid 30's. A 40% chance of morning freezing rain and sleet changing to rain by afternoon.
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gboudx
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No icing at my house. Everything is wet, but not frozen. Weather station in my neighborhood puts the temp at 32.4. If it stays this way, we may escape with little to no issues on the east side of Dallas.
On a positive note, Lake Lavon has gained over 2' since 1/4, and 1.5' since 1/12. Keep it coming.
On a positive note, Lake Lavon has gained over 2' since 1/4, and 1.5' since 1/12. Keep it coming.
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gboudx wrote:No icing at my house. Everything is wet, but not frozen. Weather station in my neighborhood puts the temp at 32.4. If it stays this way, we may escape with little to no issues on the east side of Dallas.
On a positive note, Lake Lavon has gained over 2' since 1/4, and 1.5' since 1/12. Keep it coming.
We are sitting at 32.3 and just had "light frozen rain" come over us. It didn't seem like it was frozen.
that is great about lake Lavon! I am very thankful for all the rain.
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Portastorm
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No longer can we say "geez, people sure are going to be surprised by this storm," at least in the Austin area. By last night, it was the talk of the town ... probably enhanced by the media's non-stop coverage yesterday of our flooding and constant mention of "ice on the way."
The HEB in my neighborhood last night was cleaned out of staples like bread, milk, etc. It was kinda funny. One of the grocery's employees told my wife "everyone acted like it was 9/11 or something."
Meanwhile, we're sitting at 35 degrees in my part of north Austin. It won't take much to tip us into the balance of freezing surface temps ... but then again, it's going to take another surge of arctic air to do that. We shall see.
The HEB in my neighborhood last night was cleaned out of staples like bread, milk, etc. It was kinda funny. One of the grocery's employees told my wife "everyone acted like it was 9/11 or something."
Meanwhile, we're sitting at 35 degrees in my part of north Austin. It won't take much to tip us into the balance of freezing surface temps ... but then again, it's going to take another surge of arctic air to do that. We shall see.
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