3 MORE on the WAY

[azsnowman]

Holy smokes....this pattern is similar to 1996-97 when there was a one day break between systems for the entire winter...I never saw dirt until late May of 1997.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 141029 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 330 AM MST SUN JAN 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FIRST IS DEPARTING THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER ENDING BY MID MORNING. THE SECOND WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE TONIGHT...AND BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CHILL THE REGION THIS WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...


THIS MORNINGS WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THERE ARE TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TROF. THE FIRST WAS CENTERED OVER NERN AZ AND MOVING EASTWARD. THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL IMPACTING THE AZ.NM BORDER AREAS AT 3 AM. OBSERVED LIQUID PRECIP AMOUNTS UNDER THIS BAND ARE LIGHT AND DUE TO RAPID MOVEMENT OF THIS BAND...THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE WINDOW ROCK AREA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 5 AM.


THE SECOND SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WAS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO WESTERN AZ THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE SECOND SHORTWAVE INTO WRN AZ TONIGHT AND THEN VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND OCCASIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH SUNSET MONDAY. PROGS DO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND ST JOHNS AREA MONDAY NIGHT ON NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS AREA IS ALSO UNDER SOME MODEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY AND WE DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT.


ON TUESDAY THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS AND WE DID BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD TO THE FLAG AND DONEY PARK AREAS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PROGS SHOW THE SECOND LOW LIFTING OUT OF ARIZONA...BEING REPLACED BY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE "WARMEST" DAY OF THE WEEK. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNSET FRIDAY. PROGS SUGGEST A THIRD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT ARIZONA. STILL TO EARLY FOR THE EXACT DETAILS...BUT LATEST PROGS SHOW VERY GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL BAND MOVING INTO NWRN AZ EARLY THURSDAY.

[azskyman]

No precipitation here in the Valley, but an icy 24 degrees for me in northeast Phoenix is the coldest since I arrived on the scene in 1997. Looks like Flagstaff dipped at least to -14 overnight, as it sits at -13 in the last hourly report.

I suspect all this may lead to temperature inversions this week in Phoenix with the yellow and brown cloud a common sight each morning as a result.

Good luck up there in the high country Dennis. I think I can smell that firewood burning all the way down here!!!

[azsnowman]

Temp just dropped another .9° for -12.0°F

Steve...I know, I'm watching the news as I post this, everyone's getting ready for the Rock & Roll Marathon...GREAT running weather