TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Tamora]

We still have no icing going on over here cheezy. Still sitting at 32 with rain falling, but I'm observing no freezing, which I don't understand. I guess it's not really 32 now is it?

I looked this up water melts at 32, freezes below 32. I found it on a homework help site. makes sense b/c it is 32.7 here and just rain.

Haha, guess we'll see. When I made that post it was actually 32.7. Now it's 32.3, still raining. 0.4 more drop and we'll test that homework site.

If the secondary surge does get here on schedule with temperatures rapidly or slowly dropping into the twenties, any rain today will become skating rings tonight.

Gotta love those homework sites :*) I was going to look that up yesterday when we hit 32 and noticed no ice.

[Mattie]

it is RAINING hard in McKinney @ this second - 10:52 a.m. . . . 31 degrees

[Extremeweatherguy]

Man, it's still warming up here in my neck of the woods, now up to 50 degrees....and foggy out. Come on arctic air!!!

Yeah, it continues to warm here too as the dewpoints continue to rise. I wish this fog would break already! This is some pretty dense stuff for it already being close to 11am.

If you think about it though, the front originally was not expected to arrive until this evening. So 50-degrees is a lot better than the 75 it could have been today.

I am just ready for that big change tomorrow morning. Many Houstonians that are skeptics now will probably not be when the mercury is holding in the 30-35 degree range Monday afternoon.

[KatDaddy]

Its going to be mighty cold in downtown Houston tomorrow. I will be watching the temps and radar continously tomorrow so I can get home before icing begins. Luckly I will be traveling south to home rather than north. Currently seems surreal that we may have an ice storm tomorrow. Its currently 73F in League City.

[southerngale]

So the Lake Charles NWS is finally on board with other mets.. frozen precip and ice accumulations are a real threat for Beaumont. However, I did think the first front would have gotten here by now. It's toasty outside...the ice cream came down the street yesterday afternoon!

And maybe I'm crazy, but I thought the temps where the Arctic air did make it would be colder than they are. 50's in the Houston area after the front?

I'm beginning to wonder if it'll even get cold here. lol

Ok, I'm going outside to build a humidityman.

[Shoshana]

Currently 39.9 and drizzle here at our house.

I noticed they changed the wording for our Winter Storm Warning - it was as of yesterday - 12am today thru noon tomorrow. Now it says

"Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday..."

The cold front must have slowed down?

[Portastorm]

At this point ... and maybe my question is best posed to Jeff, AFM, Wxman57, or wall_cloud ... how can NWS forecast offices reference a colder surge of air moving down south later today if they have literally thrown out most, if not all, model guidance? The model runs I looked at don't necessarily show it occuring today.

In Austin, we're going to need that surge if we ever see any wintry precip. Otherwise, temps are firmly in the mid 30s and the skeptic in me is starting to wonder if this is going to be yet another example of a winter event being advertised but never verified.

I don't know if your question has been addressed yet, so I'll answer it. It's a valid question, but there is an easy answer. Just because the GFS/NAM, and other models don't do a very good job with identifying the leading edge of a shallow Arctic airmass doesn't mean the whole model is bad. We're only ignoring the position of the leading edge of Arctic air across the Southern Plains. Aloft, the models are doing fine. Up north, fine. The second surge of Arctic air is already moving into northern Kansas. It's quite real and it's coming south at a good rate.

Just drew some freezing rain accumulation maps for Texas and had Austin & San Antonio in the 1/2 to 1 inch accumulation zone for Monday night through Wednesday morning. You won't see anything there today or early tomorrow morning, most likely, as the second surge of air that will plunge much of Texas below freezing won't reach the Gulf coast until after sunrise Monday.

Good sir, I am grateful! Thanks for the explanation ... and between you and AFM, think I now have a good understanding. And should your map verify, we're in for a world of trouble here!

[Extremeweatherguy]

What a strange eroding front right now in SE Houston. It seems like it has re-crossed into Pearland (now 54-degrees on the west side of that area), however, it has also moved back west some into Pasadena (now 69-degrees there). Seems like some parts of it are moving east while others are moving NW. Basically it is still just meandering every which way right now. Very strange to see the temperature reports so vastly different over a small distance.

[Portastorm]

Currently 39.9 and drizzle here at our house.

I noticed they changed the wording for our Winter Storm Warning - it was as of yesterday - 12am today thru noon tomorrow. Now it says

"Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday..."

The cold front must have slowed down?

Check out what Wxman57 said re: Austin and our temps/precip. Looks like our worst times will be tomorrow morning late until Wednesday.

[KatDaddy]

Bay City up from the 50s earlier to 70F. Hobby Airport now up to 65F from 55F earlier.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

So the Lake Charles NWS is finally on board with other mets.. frozen precip and ice accumulations are a real threat for Beaumont. However, I did think the first front would have gotten here by now. It's toasty outside...the ice cream came down the street yesterday afternoon!

And maybe I'm crazy, but I thought the temps where the Arctic air did make it would be colder than they are. 50's in the Houston area after the front?

I'm beginning to wonder if it'll even get cold here. lol

Ok, I'm going outside to build a humidityman.

The front will likely remained stalled from the Woodville area to Houston the rest of this afternoon meaning the greater Beaumont area will remain in the warm sector with highs in the middle to upper 70's with high dewpoints.

As pressures build to the north this evening the front should finally move off the upper Texas coast late this evening and tonight with much colder air Monday into Wednesday.

[double D]

Currently 39.9 and drizzle here at our house.

I noticed they changed the wording for our Winter Storm Warning - it was as of yesterday - 12am today thru noon tomorrow. Now it says

"Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday..."

The cold front must have slowed down?

Check out what Wxman57 said re: Austin and our temps/precip. Looks like our worst times will be tomorrow morning late until Wednesday.

I hope people pay attention to the weather before they go to work on Monday. I would not want to be at work and then a ice storm hits only to be stuck in a nightmare situation.

[Shoshana]

Currently 39.9 and drizzle here at our house.

I noticed they changed the wording for our Winter Storm Warning - it was as of yesterday - 12am today thru noon tomorrow. Now it says

"Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday..."

The cold front must have slowed down?

Check out what Wxman57 said re: Austin and our temps/precip. Looks like our worst times will be tomorrow morning late until Wednesday.

I hope people pay attention to the weather before they go to work on Monday. I would not want to be at work and then a ice storm hits only to be stuck in a nightmare situation.

I already told my husband on Friday he was working from home on Monday - looks like Tuesday too. Even though technically he could walk (we're less than 1.5 miles) he's be the only one there anyway. And since it's ok for him to work from home I don't see the need to send him out in that.

[Shoshana]

WFAA Weather Blog

Looks like the DFW area is icing in scattered locations...

[southerngale]

Thanks, Greg. I guess the ice cream man will get to make another round today. I've been looking forward to the colder temps and then it stalls just to our west...I guess I'm a little impatient.

A question for you or another met...
The first shot of Arctic air was supposed to already be in place when this next surge of cold air arrived, reinforcing it. The idea was that the second push wouldn't modify much with the cold air already in place. Since the front apparently won't arrive here until about the same time as the reinforcing air, would this modify the second shot or would it not really affect it much since most of the air ahead of it will be a lot colder?

[TrekkerCC]

Conditions are still good at my location. It is 32 degrees F here still. It is not really icing anywhere. Trees are getting a slight coating of ice, but the plants are not icing up. It seems like it is melting in some locations. Until the temperatures drop, the conditions won't get bad. It probably won't be the 0.5" to 1.0"+ ice accumulations projected yesterday.

[wxman57]

Thanks, Greg. I guess the ice cream man will get to make another round today. I've been looking forward to the colder temps and then it stalls just to our west...I guess I'm a little impatient.

A question for you or another met...
The first shot of Arctic air was supposed to already be in place when this next surge of cold air arrived, reinforcing it. The idea was that the second push wouldn't modify much with the cold air already in place. Since the front apparently won't arrive here until about the same time as the reinforcing air, would this modify the second shot or would it not really affect it much since most of the air ahead of it will be a lot colder?

The 2nd shot of Arctic air was the one that has always concerned us in southeast Texas more. Take a look at the Weather Channel and see what kind of ground it'll be moving over. Plenty of ice from Dallas northward. It won't make any difference where the first frontal boundary is across Texas when it gets here. I"m afraid much of SE TX may drop below freezing by tomorrow evening with a good bit of rain likely.

[aggiecutter]

wxman57, could you give an approximate ETA on the secondary surge for Dallas, Austin and Texarkana.

[Extremeweatherguy]

one thing I noticed is that the cold air surge is hard to pick up in northern KS because it is already so cold there (though you can tell by the increasing winds). However, with less modification of this airmass, it should become much easier to pick up and analyze once it reaches TX (especially SE Texas).

current temps: http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag226.html

[wxman57]

wxman57, could you give an approximate ETA on the secondary surge for Dallas, Austin and Texarkana.

The GFS should identify this 2nd surge of Arctic air very well. It should reach Dallas around sunset or early this evening, Texarkana before midnight, and Austin by sunrise Monday. Northerly winds are already increasing across central and northern OK and across Kansas as temperatures start falling again. It's on the way!

I like to look at this map because it shows temps, dew points, and wind speed/direction.

http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/metars/

Just click on a region to view the map.