TX Winter WX Thread #7 - An Icy and Rough Weekend Ahead

[Tireman4]

Oops. Sorry about that.

[Tireman4]

So Wxman57,

When you say Bush to Victoria, north and northwest, you mean Humble, Kingwood et all. I am in Humble and I am 2 miles north of Bush. I know it is hard to nail down as this forecast will vary greatly. Would you think 3/4 to 1 inch of ice here in Humble? Best guess.

[wxman57]

So Wxman57,

When you say Bush to Victoria, north and northwest, you mean Humble, Kingwood et all. I am in Humble and I am 2 miles north of Bush. I know it is hard to nail down as this forecast will vary greatly. Would you think 3/4 to 1 inch of ice here in Humble? Best guess.

The further north and west of downtown Houston you are, the higher the risk of more significant accumulations. Precipitation looks quite likely. The determining factor as to whether it's freezing rain or just cold rain will be the depth of the cold air (sub-freezing air).

Oh, forgot, in Humble, I'd estimate 1/4" MAYBE up to 1/2". Lots of uncertainty, though. Ask me again on Wednesday.

[teal61]

Yes it appears the colder air is moving south again. My winds went back around to the north again and the temp has been falling about a degree every 5 to 10 mins



http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... KTXSPRIN14

[Tireman4]

Thanks Wxman57. If you ever need the help of a historian or a librarian, I am your man. I sure wish that the frozen precipitation for Humble would be in the form of snow and or sleet. That would be SOOO much better than freezing rain. (Sigh)

[weatherrabbit_tx]

in over two hours the temp has fell better then 10 degrees and still falling...on the ice storm jan. '97 seems like we got more snow and ice southwest houston then houston proper stayed like 28*F like for 3 days and stayed white for those 3 days

[aggiecutter]

gboudx, I was thinking all a long this secondary surge was nothing more than a wind shift line with lower dewpoints. As a matter of fact, I mentioned it last night. The benefit of that, as you pointed out, is that it will allow the temps to drop even further with the onset of precipitation.

[cheezyWXguy]

gboudx, I was thinking all a long this secondary surge was nothing more than a wind shift line with lower dewpoints. As a matter of fact, I mentioned it last night. The benefit of that, as you pointed out, is that it will allow the temps to drop even further with the onset of precipitation.

Aggie, are you saying that when this next sheet of precip comes in, the temp will drop?

[aggiecutter]

yes, the temp should drop to the dewpoint with the onset of precip, or very close, especially since the air mass should be deeper.

[cheezyWXguy]

where exactly is the leading edge of this air mass

[Extremeweatherguy]

the leading edge of the second cold surge now seems to be approaching southern Oklahoma. It will probably accelerate overnight and reach north Texas later this evening or early tomorrow AM. It should then be all the way to the Gulf by Monday morning.

[gboudx]

yes, the temp should drop to the dewpoint with the onset of precip, or very close, especially since the air mass should be deeper.

We'll see how this pans out. We've moved up to 33 again, with the dewpoint at 31. We're so close to an ice event, or just rain.

In other news, Lake Lavon has risen over 2' since 1/12 and it continues to rise. Elevation is now at over 479', but that still leaves it 13 ft below conservation pool. We need more rain events like this, even if there is no cold air to go with it.

[TrekkerCC]

A snippet from the Aviation Update (Ft. Worth Discussion):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
630 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.AVIATION...
THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN HOLDING NEARLY STEADY ALL AFTERNOON...
WITH TEMPS AT KAFW AND KFTW 31-32F...AND 33F AT KDAL AND KDFW.
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED SLEET WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE METROPLEX TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06-08Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO FREEZING BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z AT
DFW AND DAL. WACO HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 34F...AND PROBABLY WON/T
FALL TO FREEZING UNTIL AROUND 06Z. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX TOWARD
SUNRISE...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 08-09Z...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR
AFTERWARDS. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WE SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. #58

This front (secondary surge) keeps being put off. Now, it has been moved to sunrise for metroplex passage.

[JenBayles]

Uncle already! I give up! No cold, no ice... no nothing but cool rain for the Bear Creek Dome. So much for the big Ice Event of 2007.

[aggiecutter]

Trek, the NWS is predicting a low of 26 tonight in Dallas. Evidently, they are thinking the secondary surge will be coming through well before morning. It is predicted to come through Texarkana around midnight and drop temps below freezing. We are currently at 41.

[double D]

Amarillo went from 18 down to 14 within the last hour and Lubbock went from 25 to 20. It looks like the cold air is now on the move.

[teal61]

Aww Jen its a little to soon to give up. Patience it will arrive.

[Portastorm]

Amarillo went from 18 down to 14 within the last hour and Lubbock went from 25 to 20. It looks like the cold air is now on the move.

Yup. I noticed the same thing ... along with a gradual increase of northerly winds in those areas. The "surge" is indeed coming south!

[gboudx]

Trek, the NWS is predicting a low of 26 tonight in Dallas. Evidently, they are thinking the secondary surge will be coming through well before morning. It is predicted to come through Texarkana around midnight and drop temps below freezing. We are currently at 41.

Why do you think they are predicting it come through way before morning? Usually, the daily low is reached just around sunrise.

I'm at 33 with a predicted low of 26. I won't be surprised if that low is not hit.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Well just checked the NWS FW and they have stated that they don't expect my area to drop below freezing and the frz rain will just be plain ol rain. Even stated that the precp. will probably be all gone by 3am. So I really doubt that the Houston area will see anything more than we do. I saw on the weather channel where it was an all rain even in the golden triangle. Maybe the Hill country and west will get some tomorrow.
It is still in the upper 30's here.

Guess the air was just too shallow. Maybe if it had been colder in the upper layers things might have been different. Guess sometimes the models are right even if we think they are off.
I live in Athens just 75 miles to the SouthEast of Dallas. If it isn't going to get to freezing here I don't see it going colder to the south of me.