Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies are near their peak and that decreasing anomalies are likely during February-May 2007 (Fig. 5). Recent observed trends in the upper ocean tend to support those forecasts. Decreasing upper-ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific has been progressing east in association with the upwelling portion of the most recent Kelvin wave. In the absence of any further Kelvin wave activity, the upper-ocean heat content should return to near average in a few months. However, there is considerable uncertainty in this outlook, given the resurgence of MJO activity in late December 2006. It is possible that the enhanced precipitation phase of the MJO, which is currently entering the western tropical Pacific, might trigger a more persistent pattern of cloudiness and precipitation over the anomalously warm waters of the central equatorial Pacific during the next several weeks. If that occurs, then the equatorial easterlies over the central Pacific will likely weaken possibly leading to the initiation of a fifth Kelvin wave. Please refer to ENSO Evolution, Status and Prediction Presentation available on the CPC El Niño/ La Niña page for weekly updates on the latest conditions in the tropical Pacific
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/
This Climate Prediction Center January update for ENSO is a little different from what the Australian update said.CPC says that El Nino will persist thru May and the Australians say el nino is starting to weaken.But they are similar to say that another kelvin wave may trigger more warm anomalies in the comming weeks.Time will tell in reallity what will occur.
CPC 1/11/07 ENSO Update=El Nino conditions thru May
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- cycloneye
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CPC 1/11/07 ENSO Update=El Nino conditions thru May
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- AussieMark
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P.K. wrote:It has looked like it is weakening for several weeks now. Subsurface negative anomalies have increased, as of 11/1/06, a little around 160W at 150 metres down since 7/1/06. Nino 3.4 SSTAs are the lowest since November as well.
I have been wanting to ask a pro-met this for a while now. In your opinion, will this weakening trend you mentioned above continue and also when do you personally expect the El Nino to go away completely?
<RICKY>
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- P.K.
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To me it has looked to be weakening for 5 weeks or so. Now I'm not going to claim to specialise in ENSO events but that is how I have seen it. Both the BoM and NOAA updates mention the location of the MJO and say there could be a temporary strengthening, but even if there isn't it should stay an El Nino for a few months more. It never got very strong though. The three month Nino 3.4 average hasn't quite broken the +1.1C barrier yet so is a little under 0.3C above the El Nino threshold. The BoM are saying towards their Autumn for neutral conditions to return (Spring for most of us on here).
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- cycloneye
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P.K. wrote:The weekly Nino 3.4 anomaly is now down to +0.83C. As a result the three month Nino 3.4 average has dropped for the first time since the week 13/3/2006 to 19/3/2006.
At the current rate it is falling it could be back to neutral by late Feb or early March.
That is way off from what CPC said in the update in terms of the timeframe of El Nino being in the pacific thru May.They may have to revise their timeframe for el nino in the next Febuary update.
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