More Arctic Outbreaks for Texas and the South????

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I took a look at DT's ( Wxrisk.com) site and he notes we could be in for 3 more Arctic blast for until the end of the month. Likewise, Bastardi is on board with some of the same thinking, but he think the pattern takes us into Mid Feb with at least below normal temps. When you can get those two on almost the same page, something is happening.

So what do you pro mets and wantabes see in the next few weeks for Texas and I throw in the south for our friends on here from LA, MS, and AL and FL? I am still trying to learn how to read the long range models and the such. Is this current winter wx event just a sneak peak of things to come. I did notice DT used "severe" to describe a potential Arctic shot for the end of the month.

[JonathanBelles]

i am hoping this comes true for the south but keep it out of the north especilly MO for repairs.

[Janie2006]

Well, okay, but I don't want any ice. Ice storms are really bad news.

[Burn1]

Looks like it will be the case for Texas, La... etc.... Lots of cold air ready to pump on in through at least mid - Feb... for those folks...

It does not look like this will be the case for Florida however.... Continued unseasonably warm especially for South Fla.... Our lows have been 10 to 15 degrees above normal consistently for the last month and a half....Daytime highs 8 to 10 degrees above normal... Actually I am really enjoying this..... I have lived here quite a few years, but also in Minnesota, the Northeast, and Canada.....Trust me I like this warmth a lot better....I get my snow and cold on my annual snow boarding trip to the Rockies every year!!

I do remember back in the day though it getting quite cold by Florida standards...... Seems like those days have been few and far between for a few years now, but hey that is why we live in Florida...

It has been strange this year though.... We are actually having to cut the grass once a week just like during the summer.... Usually you can go up to 3 weeks without cutting it in the winter... The pool is actually warm enough to jump in (without a heater).... That never happened before in January.... You can also hear summertime crickets chirping in the night like mid - July.....

[arizonasooner]

The street in front of our house is a solid block of ice. It looks like Canada out my front window, not Oklahoma. This may end up being like the winter of 77-78, which was late coming but hard hitting and long lasting....

On the plus side, it's rather fun riding the luge down the street at 25 mph or so....

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Bastardi headline for today:

WEDNESDAY NOON: FLORIDA, TEXAS CITRUS SHOULD BE THREATENED BY FREEZES BEFORE SEASON ENDS.

[Burn1]

Possibly Texas but unlikely for Florida....Persistent ridge will continue shunting off any possibility of arctic air for Florida peninsula.... Looks like Texas though is in for a number of good more shots of cold air through Feb....

Of course this may not bode well for hurricane season in S. Florida....ocean temps are some of the warmest recorded for this time of year off the coast of S. FL....

Looks like S FL will continue with temps consistently running 10 to 15 degrees above normal!

[HarlequinBoy]

It looks like this weekend there will be another winter storm across the South.

Winter Storm watches are already up for West Texas and part of north Texas and Central Oklahoma with significant snow expected.

I'm not really sure about further eastward. The AFDs are just starting to drop hints in the Mid South and Arkansas and it appears that Arkansas could see a significant storm, but I'm not so sure about the Mid South into Georgia and the Carolinas.


And even early next week another storm may be brewing. A VERY interesting pattern to say the least.

[aggiecutter]

Bastardi thinks the next two storms will affect areas north of 1-20 into Oklahoma and Arkansas.

[HarlequinBoy]

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MAJOR WINTER STORM COULD BE SHAPING UP FOR PARTS OF ARKANSAS THIS
WEEKEND.

IT IS TOO SOON TO PINPOINT DETAILS BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY OR LATER
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE GULF ON SUNDAY AND
MOVING TO THE EAST. IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL EASILY BE PLENTIFUL
ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. THE CRITICAL
ELEMENT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. SOME
AREAS IN ARKANSAS COULD RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW...HEAVY SLEET...
SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN...OR A COMBINATION OF THIS. TRAVEL
WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WHERE THIS OCCURS. CHANCES OF HEAVY WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHER TO THE NORTH AND LOWER TO THE SOUTH.

PEOPLE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS ON WHAT COULD BECOME A SERIOUS WINTER WEATHER
SITUATION IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE.
---

That was issued at about 1251 PM this afternoon.. With this event if it pans out, it appears there will be plenty of precipitation, but cold air may be waning.

Also what is a Winter Storm Outlook? I have read this term twice today in AFDs and am not aware of what it is.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What are the models and ensembles saying today? One of our on air mets said he is worried about the end of the month. I was shocked to hear him go out on a limb like that.

[Portastorm]

What are the models and ensembles saying today? One of our on air mets said he is worried about the end of the month. I was shocked to hear him go out on a limb like that.

The 0z and 6z GFS operational run today showed some possible wintry precip along with cold frontal passage for next Tues-Wed ... but it looks like the Austin area is on the cusp on the freezing line and that areas to the south and east would be non freezing.

The NCEP ensembles this morning show a major cold, arctic plunge toward the end of the month (as cold if not colder than what we saw this week). Yes, most definitely!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What are the models and ensembles saying today? One of our on air mets said he is worried about the end of the month. I was shocked to hear him go out on a limb like that.

The 0z and 6z GFS operational run today showed some possible wintry precip along with cold frontal passage for next Tues-Wed ... but it looks like the Austin area is on the cusp on the freezing line and that areas to the south and east would be non freezing.

The NCEP ensembles this morning show a major cold, arctic plunge toward the end of the month (as cold if not colder than what we saw this week). Yes, most definitely!

Have you made your trek up to Mt. Bastardi this morning?

[Portastorm]

What are the models and ensembles saying today? One of our on air mets said he is worried about the end of the month. I was shocked to hear him go out on a limb like that.

The 0z and 6z GFS operational run today showed some possible wintry precip along with cold frontal passage for next Tues-Wed ... but it looks like the Austin area is on the cusp on the freezing line and that areas to the south and east would be non freezing.

The NCEP ensembles this morning show a major cold, arctic plunge toward the end of the month (as cold if not colder than what we saw this week). Yes, most definitely!

Have you made your trek up to Mt. Bastardi this morning?

The slopes of Mt. Bastardi remain icy ... so foot travel remains slow and dangerous. Will let you know when the Wise One speaks today!

[Tireman4]

Be careful going up there. This time of year can be a might be slippery.

[double D]

Kind of hard to know what exactly is going to happen next week due to the inconsistencies with the GFS and some other models too. Just yesterday the gfs was bringing the front for Monday and Tuesday through Central Texas dry, now it wants to break out some QPF for those days. I guess we need to see if the models hold on to this trend or not.

[AggieSpirit]

I have a good stack of firewood ready for use. Hardly got to use it last year.

[teal61]

Wow...a glance at the 12z GFS shows the motherload of cold air coming down about Feb 2 or so. Brrr I'll just be getting off a cruise ship the morning of the 3rd.

Note...it is of course the GFS so we shall see.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

JB just updated. To the point, he thinks the week of the 27th we'll have a severe shot where we'll have at least one day of temps in the teens in Dallas and Atlanta as highs. Most of the nation will be in the ice box.

If that is true, we are talking about a classic Arctic outbreak.

[aggiecutter]

Joe Bastardi is about as reliable as Portastorm. As a matter of fact, I think they are attached at the hip.