Winter Cancel for Central and Southern Florida

[Patrick99]

I was going to post that discussion if no one else did. It's a classic! The Miami discussions have been good, informative and entertaining lately.

[gatorcane]

The main difference between this year and last year is the persistent easterly wind flow across south florida. Typical wind speeds have been East at 15-25 mph much of this winter. Even when a front pushes through, the winds quickly have veered from the North to the Northeast and then east.

The result is a warm flow off the Gulf stream (SST of about 80F) which has resulted in lows rarely getting below 70F along the immediate coast all winter long.

This pattern is NOT what we want to see for hurricane season 2007 -- but I'm sure the long wave pattern will change by then.

[Patrick99]

There was very little persistent strong easterly flow during the 2006 hurricane season...it seems that ever since that strong Thanksgiving cold front, strong high pressure has been in control.

Look at that whopper of a high over Florida and the Caribbean, showing up quite nicely on water vapor!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Lets hope it doesn't last through Hurricane season.

[JonathanBelles]

can we change the topic name? GFS hrs 252-288 look cold and hour 360 as well. maybe a chance of winter precip in there.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think that's the first day of spring.

[NDG]

can we change the topic name? GFS hrs 252-288 look cold and hour 360 as well. maybe a chance of winter precip in there.

When I see it on the GFS short range forecast I'll take it seriously as long as the Euro comes out with a similar solution as well. I wouldn't even look at it if is coming from the GFS 18z long range.
OK, back to the mild winter discussion here in central & southern FL.

[ronjon]

From HPC Disc:

MAIN EVENT THIS PD WILL BE STORM EMERGING FROM TX D4 AND LIFTING
THRU THE ERN STATES THEREAFTER. EXPECT WINTRY PCPN ON THE NRN AND
WRN EDGE OF ITS PCPN SHIELD...WITH SOAKING RAINS ALONG ITS PATH
AND TO THE E. IN ITS WAKE...ARCTIC FLOOD GATES SHOULD OPEN...WITH
MUCH OF THE NATION E OF THE ROCKIES FEELING THE FULL FORCE OF MID
WINTER.

Long-range GFS is carving out a fairly deep and persistent trough over the east half of the country in the next week to 10 days. I think our luck in FL is about to run out. Oh well, all good things must end, eh?

Here's the 18Z run at 11 days. Note 0 deg C line down to Lake O.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_264s.gif

[boca]

Isn't the 18zGFS one of the runs that most people discount but rather use the 00GFS or 06GFS runs instead? I don't believe that model past 72 hours.

[NDG]

Isn't the 18zGFS one of the runs that most people discount but rather use the 00GFS or 06GFS runs instead? I don't believe that model past 72 hours.

Good ones are 00z & 12z runs, 12z probably the best. And the 06z probably the worst.

[Burn1]

Looks like it will be the case for Texas, La... etc.... Lots of cold air ready to pump on in through at least mid - Feb... for those folks...

It does not look like this will be the case for Florida however.... Continued unseasonably warm especially for South Fla.... Our lows have been 10 to 15 degrees above normal consistently for the last month and a half....Daytime highs 8 to 10 degrees above normal... Actually I am really enjoying this..... I have lived here quite a few years, but also in Minnesota, the Northeast, and Canada.....Trust me I like this warmth a lot better....I get my snow and cold on my annual snow boarding trip to the Rockies every year!!

I do remember back in the day though it getting quite cold by Florida standards...... Seems like those days have been few and far between for a few years now, but hey that is why we live in Florida...

It has been strange this year though.... We are actually having to cut the grass once a week just like during the summer.... Usually you can go up to 3 weeks without cutting it in the winter... The pool is actually warm enough to jump in (without a heater).... That never happened before in January.... You can also hear summertime crickets chirping in the night like mid - July.....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Right BURN the same here. According to the definition of El Nino. We were suppose to be cooler and wetter. How about warmer and more humid. El Nino is a fickle phenomenon that has many centuries of studies. As for the GFS it's been doing that all winter now. I don't put any reliability in it past 24 hours. We have a long way with the study of meteorology and climate. We're just learning.

[HURRICANELONNY]

By the way . Here's our GFS in action:Monday through Tuesday...surface low moves to the Carolinas and to western
Atlantic by Monday night with a cold front extending SW across central Florida
and eastern Gulf of mex. Gfsx bring this system across S. Florida Tuesday/Tuesday
night with a significant cooling behind it. However...we have seen
this before this season...with extended range guidance changing
significantly after every run...in other words...don't count on it yet.

[NDG]

The Euro's 12z run from yesterday had a huge trough digging across the east coast and across FL by Wed & Thurs of next week, well guess what, last night's run keeps the trough back into the MS valley. I've seen that happen many times as well, in which it promotes a huge trough coming down on its long range forecast before later on adjusting it to what has been persistant across the south for the past few weeks.

[NDG]

By the way, did any body else here in cent FL noticed the layer of tree pollen on the cars this morning, no wonder I woke up sneezing.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it will be the case for Texas, La... etc.... Lots of cold air ready to pump on in through at least mid - Feb... for those folks...

It does not look like this will be the case for Florida however.... Continued unseasonably warm especially for South Fla.... Our lows have been 10 to 15 degrees above normal consistently for the last month and a half....Daytime highs 8 to 10 degrees above normal... Actually I am really enjoying this..... I have lived here quite a few years, but also in Minnesota, the Northeast, and Canada.....Trust me I like this warmth a lot better....I get my snow and cold on my annual snow boarding trip to the Rockies every year!!

I do remember back in the day though it getting quite cold by Florida standards...... Seems like those days have been few and far between for a few years now, but hey that is why we live in Florida...

It has been strange this year though.... We are actually having to cut the grass once a week just like during the summer.... Usually you can go up to 3 weeks without cutting it in the winter... The pool is actually warm enough to jump in (without a heater).... That never happened before in January.... You can also hear summertime crickets chirping in the night like mid - July.....

I actually moved from the Tampa area to South Florida to get away from the cold up there. But now it seems that South Florida weather has shifted north now into central Florida and south Florida is in a tropical climate -- at least this winter.......it's amazing the climate difference between the Tampa area and South Florida. Usually a good 10-15 degrees warmer along the SE Coast of Florida than the west coast.

[Burn1]

It's not a major difference between Tampa and here, probably 10 degrees or so....Actually I went to UF in the early to mid 80's... I remember winter of 85 when I used to open up WRUF AM/FM in the morning.... I used to get into the station around 4:30am....One Jan morning in 85 we had one heck of an arctic outbreak.... It was 11 degrees in Gainesville that morning.... I remember the weather cube that morning spouting out temps across the state...Crestview in the Panhandle was checking in at 5 degrees....

[ronjon]

18Z GFS looks very cold for the FL peninsula in about a week. Only one run showing it this cold so early, but it could signal a major pattern change.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_180s.gif

Also supported by the 12Z Euro - although a day slower.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7011712!!/

[HURRICANELONNY]

Oh boy! Another cold GFS output. At least the NWS is finally realizing that the GFS is Good For Sh-t.
Will increase cloud cover Tuesday and Wednesday and mention a
slight chance of precip, however, after seeing the performance of
gfsx these past few days in which the guidance seemed to have changed its
"mind" after every run, will not introduce any big changes in
expected temperatures ( as gfsx MOS indicates) at this time and will wait
until a persistence trend is established in future runs.

[boca]

Even the on air mets are saying that winter never started down here and its probably over.