TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[TexasStooge]

Something tells me we're not gonna see an end to this wintry mix-up.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007

.UPDATE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER...BUT NOT MUCH COLDER AIR IS FILTERING DOWN INTO NORTH
TEXAS. HAVE DECIDED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST
AREAS AND REMOVE FREEZING RAIN FROM ALL BUT THE WESTERN ZONES.
UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CST THU JAN 18 2007/

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH
AROUND 7 KT. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING...BUT DRY ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP THINGS VFR THEREAFTER. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LOW...AND CONFINED TO MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE LIQUID...AND
INTENSITY LOW SO AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LOW. TR.92

DISCUSSION...

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MID AFTERNOON. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE. AS TEMPERATURES COOL DURING THE
NIGHT...VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CWA...ROUGHLY WEST OF A WEATHERFORD TO
COMANCHE LINE. ALL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT IN NATURE WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

THE FORECAST FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF WINTRY
PRECIP. NAM SOLUTION HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH KICKING OUT THE UPPER
LOW /CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHERN BAJA/. THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION NOW APPEARS TO BE MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A WARMER
THERMAL PROFILE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...MUCH MORE INDICATIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP /ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20/ THAN WINTRY WEATHER.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTION IS COOLER...OUR FORECAST PACKAGE WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER NAM BASED ON THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
SURGE OF COLD AIR /EVIDENT IN SFC OBS/...AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
WAA. WE HAVE DELAYED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH AND REFINED THE AREA
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WSW NOW INCLUDES AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF AN EASTLAND TO GAINESVILLE LINE BEGINNING
AT 18Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUB FREEZING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECTED ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM ONE QUARTER TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

FROM THE WATCH AREA SOUTHEAST TO A LAMPASAS TO PARIS LINE
/INCLUDING THE METROPLEX/...PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BEGIN AS
FREEZING RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN BY
SATURDAY MORNING. WATCH CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET OVER
THIS AREA. THEREFORE...WE HAVE PULLED THE WATCH FROM THIS
REGION...BUT ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE FROZEN POTENTIAL.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED TOMORROW IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FROZEN POTENTIAL WITH EARLY ONSET
PRECIPITATION OVER AREAS JUST OUTSIDE THE WATCH.

NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND
THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SNOW. WE WILL CARRY A MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE
IMPACT OF THIS EVENT WILL BE REFINED WITH TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS DRY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A
BIT EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

an amazing point to ponder for those in Houston...

We are currently on day 4 of below 50-degree temperatures in Houston. Tomorrow and Saturday call for more of the same, so that would make SIX DAYS IN A ROW below 50-degrees here in Houston.

Wondering when the last time was we saw a 6 day period below 50 here in Houston?

The answer is this: It has NOT happened within the last 7+ year history of IAH and it likely has not happened within the last 10 years either. This is truly an amazing long cold stretch for us. The longest stretch IAH has had within the last 7 years of recorded weather history was about 4 days of sub-50 weather on one or two occassions in the last 7 years.

Crazy to think about, isn't it?

BTW:

The last 4 days at IAH were as follows (high temps):

MON - 45 degrees
TUES - 37 degrees
WED - 36 degrees
THURS - 44 degrees

and here is the forecast for the next 2 days:

FRI - 45
SAT - 49/50<<going to be a close call on Saturday

Beyond this stretch below 50, it looks like an even longer stretch below 60 may be on the way. Sunday through Wednesday of next week (and likely beyond) are forecast to only be in the 40s and 50s. There actually seems to be a good chance we may close out January and begin February without hitting 60-degrees here in Houston!

Considering the average high is 61-63 this time of year..that is a pretty big deal and goes to show how cold this pattern we are in really is.

**This is in no way Houston's coldest or longest stretch of cold weather though. Hard to believe, but in 1951 the city stayed below 32 degrees for 4-6 days. Could you imagine that? Not to mention the inch and a half of ice that also went along with that long freeze.**

[wxforecaster]

Hey everyone. I am here in Lubbock, TX.. I am a meteorologist for one of the TV stations here. Just want to give you all an update. Things are looking ok right now. We should get 4-8 inches of snow. It should be fun. If we switch over to sleet, we will see 3-6 inches. WRF is now Agreeing with GFS and UKMET so we are looking good for the snow. I am just worried about the warm air moving in. Of course you can see what i am looking at:

http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html

I will keep everyone updated. I am going to enjoy this storm. Lots of lives shots outside. YAY! Happy happy!

Jon Aaron
KAMC28-TV Meteorologist
http://www.wxforecaster.com

[Portastorm]

Hey everyone. I am here in Lubbock, TX.. I am a meteorologist for one of the TV stations here. Just want to give you all an update. Things are looking ok right now. We should get 4-8 inches of snow. It should be fun. If we switch over to sleet, we will see 3-6 inches. WRF is now Agreeing with GFS and UKMET so we are looking good for the snow. I am just worried about the warm air moving in. Of course you can see what i am looking at:

http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html

I will keep everyone updated. I am going to enjoy this storm. Lots of lives shots outside. YAY! Happy happy!

Jon Aaron
KAMC28-TV Meteorologist
http://www.wxforecaster.com

Welcome aboard Jon!

Most of us eager for snow will be living vicariously through your reports so keep 'em coming!!

[wall_cloud]

someone between us here in Amarillo and you guys in Lubbock is going to get hammered by this storm.

[Johnny]

Thanks for the history lessong EWG...much appreciated. It's just miserable outside. This cold and wet stuff is getting old but it doesn't look to end anytime soon. If it's gonna be cold, I'd sure like to see a good sleet or snow storm out of it. This is the type of pattern we need to get snow down here in Southeast, Texas. I sure hope when it is all said and done that we actually get a little. Any updates on the models today concerning more cold for us (and maybe precip)?

[Portastorm]

Thanks for the history lessong EWG...much appreciated. It's just miserable outside. This cold and wet stuff is getting old but it doesn't look to end anytime soon. If it's gonna be cold, I'd sure like to see a good sleet or snow storm out of it. This is the type of pattern we need to get snow down here in Southeast, Texas. I sure hope when it is all said and done that we actually get a little. Any updates on the models today concerning more cold for us (and maybe precip)?

Johnny, the GFS is less bullish on early next week with minor precip amounts and borderline temperature profiles. It shears out the system west of us. The Euro, however, forms a cutoff low to our west and if that verified, we'd be in for a possible significant event.

Those who watch these things closely say the Euro is prone to an error of cutting off lows in the southwest and moving them too slowly. In this case, that may be what the model is doing. However, that being said, the Euro usually outperforms the GSF in wintertime. So, who knows?!

We should all be watching model guidance and discussions this weekend as Monday afternoon into Tuesday is the time frame for any potential event.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What's the latest on the severe shot of Arctic air that JB has been talking about for late in the month? I saw his update this AM and he seems more bullish about Florida getting hit next weekend. But nothing said about Texas.

[aggiecutter]

The trend of the Ensembles is stick the core of the cold in the east after next week. The 12z GFS operational run has trended this way also. Right now, outside of a couple moderate cold shots the next 5-9 days, there is really nothing on the plate as far as severe cold or winter storms are concerned for residents south of I-30 in Texas. Of course, that could change in a couple days.

[TexasStooge]

Hey everyone. I am here in Lubbock, TX.. I am a meteorologist for one of the TV stations here. Just want to give you all an update. Things are looking ok right now. We should get 4-8 inches of snow. It should be fun. If we switch over to sleet, we will see 3-6 inches. WRF is now Agreeing with GFS and UKMET so we are looking good for the snow. I am just worried about the warm air moving in. Of course you can see what i am looking at:

http://wxforecaster.com/ncep/java/new/test/all.html

I will keep everyone updated. I am going to enjoy this storm. Lots of lives shots outside. YAY! Happy happy!

Jon Aaron
KAMC28-TV Meteorologist
http://www.wxforecaster.com

Welcome to the boards. Hope you enjoy every bit of the snow there!

The last time my homewtown of Irving, TX has gotten almost that much amount of snow was on Valentine's Day 2004.

[gboudx]

Looks like more of that much needed rain for DFW. Lake Lavon really benefited from the last round of rain. I just checked and it's only 10' low now. The rain last weekend filled it up almost 5'!

[Johnny]

Forgive me but I decided to tightly lace up my hiking boots and ascend the greatness of Mt. Bastardi. The climb was smooth but the higher I climbed, the colder I got. As I approached the top, a voice echoed through the empty canyon below. It was a haunting voice than ran chills up my spine as the cold artic wind slapped me in the face. The voice said in a loud grumble, "I have teased you Texans with an early taste of what the arctic can bring. Get ready, because sometime next weekend, you will feel the full of effects of a true blue norther straight through the heart of Texas, deep into the valley."

I came to my feet and bowed my head in worship. I descended the great Mt. Bastardi eager to spread the news to my brother and sisterhood over at Storm2k!

[CaptinCrunch]

Forgive me but I decided to tightly lace up my hiking boots and ascend the greatness of Mt. Bastardi. The climb was smooth but the higher I climbed, the colder I got. As I approached the top, a voice echoed through the empty canyon below. It was a haunting voice than ran chills up my spine as the cold artic wind slapped me in the face. The voice said in a loud grumble, "I have teased you Texans with an early taste of what the arctic can bring. Get ready, because sometime next weekend, you will feel the full of effects of a true blue norther straight through the heart of Texas, deep into the valley."

I came to my feet and bowed my head in worship. I descended the great Mt. Bastardi eager to spread the news to my brother and sisterhood over at Storm2k!

So Shall It Be Written........So Shall It Be Done!!

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't believe that guy if I were you ...

[abcd4]

Hi I am new to S2K. I have been following the weather here for awhile. Love it....
I heard that SE Texas may be in for another artic blast sometime at the end of January or beginning of Febuary. What do y'all think.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Forgive me but I decided to tightly lace up my hiking boots and ascend the greatness of Mt. Bastardi. The climb was smooth but the higher I climbed, the colder I got. As I approached the top, a voice echoed through the empty canyon below. It was a haunting voice than ran chills up my spine as the cold artic wind slapped me in the face. The voice said in a loud grumble, "I have teased you Texans with an early taste of what the arctic can bring. Get ready, because sometime next weekend, you will feel the full of effects of a true blue norther straight through the heart of Texas, deep into the valley."

I came to my feet and bowed my head in worship. I descended the great Mt. Bastardi eager to spread the news to my brother and sisterhood over at Storm2k!

Good one. I guess you are now the JB sycophant on the S2k board for taking that daring trip. Portastorm is still in the endzone celebrating his "kick." I saw what he posted on his blog about the freeze threat for the Rio Grande Valley with the upcoming extremes in the pattern. Which video did he talk about the threat?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB even said that first 15 days of Februrary may be among the TOP TEN coldest 15-periods ever for the country!

That would be crazy, wouldn't.

I guess we just have to sit back and see if he is right...

[Portastorm]

Hi I am new to S2K. I have been following the weather here for awhile. Love it....
I heard that SE Texas may be in for another artic blast sometime at the end of January or beginning of Febuary. What do y'all think.

Welcome to S2K, abcd4!

Check out the posts in this thread and you'll get your answer. Several respect pro mets see such a blast occuring but no guarantees.

[JonathanBelles]

JB even said that first 15 days of Februrary may be among the TOP TEN coldest 15-periods ever for the country!
That would be crazy, wouldn't.
I guess we just have to sit back and see if he is right...

do you have a link to that?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

JB even said that first 15 days of Februrary may be among the TOP TEN coldest 15-periods ever for the country!

That would be crazy, wouldn't.

I guess we just have to sit back and see if he is right...

It is interesting to note (and I am sure you know this, EWG) that some of the coldest temps in recorded history in Texas occured in the first part of February. I think that time period is like the eye of a hurricane where winters worst happens before we start our decline towards March and spring time.

I do recall the outbreaks of 1983 and 1989 (which were December outbreaks) were coast to coast events for the most part. Flordia and Texas were both slammed hard.