The SE ridge

[JonathanBelles]

are there any indications of it moving out to sea? If it doesnt move soon the Extreme Se will not see a freeze and the GOM could have a problem come hurricane season.

[Lindaloo]

I agree with you on that about the GOM.

[boca]

Don't forget the Gulf only had Alberto last year in June last year. Water temps do contribute obviously to storm strength but if shear or sal is a player it won't matter how hot the water temps get.

[ronjon]

are there any indications of it moving out to sea? If it doesnt move soon the Extreme Se will not see a freeze and the GOM could have a problem come hurricane season.

I think its pretty certain that the SE Ridge will be a distant memory soon. Major pattern change underway with a + PNA pattern setting up (something we have not seen since early December).

From Melbourne NWS Disc:

DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THU. SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT AND BEYOND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED IN A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN.

Major ridging to set up out west with a deep trough over the eastern half of the country opening the door to some frigid cold to dive all the way into FL from Canada. The trough will periodically amplify to bring us shots of cold air over the next two weeks. All it will take will be a deep trough and a major east coast storm to open the flood gates of arctic air into FL - here's an example from the 00Z GFS. Zero line at 850 mb down to south FL.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_300s.gif

[JonathanBelles]

the 12z doesnt show a major cool down.

[ronjon]

the 12z doesnt show a major cool down.

Here's the 12Z GFS Run at 174 hrs - looks pretty darn cold to me!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_174s.gif

[cpdaman]

KEYS forecast discussion (2'nd Paragraph talks about atlantic ridge COMPLETELY BREAKING DOWN)

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DYNAMIC
UPPER-LEVEL SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER NORTH AMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF AN
AMPLIFIED HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE. HOWEVER...WE HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY THAN WE HAVE HAD FOR SEVERAL CYCLES.

A WEAK...SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ALMOST COMPLETELY BREAK
DOWN...AND THIS WILL LOWER THE MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE SERVICE AREA BY TONIGHT. A 12-18 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BREEZES IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE WEAK FRONT
OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT NEARS THE KEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
MODERATE NORTH BREEZES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND ONLY
A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE IS EXPECTED BECAUSE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR WILL PERSIST ALOFT.

NUMEROUS CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION. THE FRONT WILL NEARLY WASH
OUT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ISALLOBARIC FORCING
OVER THE GULF BASIN COURTESY OF INCREASING JET ENERGY AND HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL ALLOW NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES ROOTED IN
ARCTIC AIR TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY...WHICH WILL FORTIFY THE GULF FRONTAL ZONE AND PUSH IT
THROUGH THE KEYS AS A DECENT COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.