"BAM!" Another WINTER STORM WARNING

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azsnowman
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"BAM!" Another WINTER STORM WARNING

#1 Postby azsnowman » Thu Jan 18, 2007 7:57 pm

Well....I can HONESTLY say "El NINO" is being a GOOD LITTLE boy 8-) Another winter storm warning PLUS ANOTHER system after THIS ONE 8-)

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

fxus65 kfgz 182213
afdfgz


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona
310 PM MST Thursday Jan 20 2007


Synopsis...a low pressure center along the northern Baja California coast will
begin to move inland this evening. This low will track across
southern Arizona Thursday and into New Mexico by Saturday morning.
Expect increasing clouds tonight with a chance of rain and snow
developing by Friday morning. The heaviest snowfall is expected from
Happy Jack and northern Gila County eastward to the White Mountains.
Brief clearing can be expected Saturday night before a colder storm
from the northern rockies moves into northeastern Arizona late
Sunday through Tuesday.


&&


Discussion...the low pressure center that has been moving down the
West Coast is beginning to turn eastward this afternoon. The high
level cloud shield that has been streaming over southern and eastern
Arizona today is thinning this afternoon. The low tracks across
southern Arizona and just south of the White Mountains. This will
pull moisture across northern Arizona. Northern Gila County...eastern
Mogollon Rim...and White Mountains will be the most favorable
locations for heavier precipitation beginning by 12z Friday. A Winter
Storm Watch has been issued for these areas. As the low moves across
the state...moisture will wrap around the low bringing chances of
precipitation to most of the County Warning Area. Snow levels will start at around
6000 feet early Friday...falling to around 4500 to 5000 feet
Saturday morning. Precipitation will end from west to east Saturday
afternoon. Another low pressure center over the northern rockies is
expected to move into northeastern Arizona by late Sunday. This will
bring a reinforcing shot of cold air and a chance for snow showers
through Monday. The chance for snow should remain east of Flagstaff
with this storm.
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#2 Postby azsnowman » Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:00 pm

SORRY...it's a winter storm WATCH :ggreen: :oops:


WINTER STORM WATCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
343 PM MST THU JAN 18 2007

...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY..

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SPREAD NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN
MOGOLLON RIM AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...INTO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW WILL DECREASE BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE STATE.

AZZ016>018-190645-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.WS.A.0001.070119T1500Z-070120T1500Z/
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES..
SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON...STRAWBERRY...YOUNG
343 PM MST THU JAN 18 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ABOVE 5500 FEET..
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#3 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:04 pm

that el nino is being ver good the northern states.
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#4 Postby LTHLBLU » Thu Jan 18, 2007 8:41 pm

Man, I swear mother nature is evening itself out, last year you had barley any snow, and we (the Sierras) had the most ever, now we are not even 50% of normal and you keep getting snow.

Sorry for that rant, just an observation :)

Hope you keep getting snow! :)
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#5 Postby Aslkahuna » Thu Jan 18, 2007 11:40 pm

Actually, Northern Arizona hasn't gotten all that much snow.

Steve
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#6 Postby azsnowman » Fri Jan 19, 2007 8:17 am

Aslkahuna wrote:Actually, Northern Arizona hasn't gotten all that much snow.

Steve


Steve, I'm only 19" down from normal thus far...this is FAR better than LAST winter. Last year at this time I had 5.5" of snow total....so far, I've had a total 37", couple that with the forecast 12"+ for this system, I'd say that's getting PRETTY close to normal :wink:
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#7 Postby azsnowman » Sat Jan 20, 2007 10:15 am

In total white out conditions as I post this and my wife is STUCK in Phoenix :cry: ....she went to San Diego for a death in the family on Weds., was supposed to be home yesterday afternoon when this system blew in...plane had to devert back to Phoenix because of the cloud deck....400' with blizzard conditions and it DOES NOT look to promising TODAY either!


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ANOTHER CLOSED-LOW DEVELOPS AND DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS ARIZONA. INITIALLY...AS THE MID TO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ARIZONA...UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS...BASED ON CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WOULD BE ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD OCCUR



FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A DAY OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS ARIZONA. WILL GO WITH ZERO POPS...WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR NOW. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY UNRELIABLE OUT PAST A COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO CHANGE.
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#8 Postby azsnowman » Sat Jan 20, 2007 10:30 am

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#9 Postby cpdaman » Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:17 pm

AZ snowman were u saying u guys were running 19 inches of snow below normal! before this current storm

how many inches of snow do you guys average a year 120?
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#10 Postby azsnowman » Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:27 pm

[quote="cpdaman"]AZ snowman were u saying u guys were running 19 inches of snow below normal! before this current storm

how many inches of snow do you guys average a year 120?[/quote]

Here at the house it's 132" annually, just 23 miles East of here it's 310"+ :eek:
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#11 Postby azsnowman » Sat Jan 20, 2007 6:15 pm

:eek: HOLY CRAP!!! :eek:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

WINTER STORM WATCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
327 PM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

AZZ011-013-014-016>018-040-210630-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.WS.A.0002.070121T1900Z-070122T1900Z/
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINDOW ROCK...GANADO...WINSLOW..
HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...HEBER..
HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP...PAYSON..
STRAWBERRY...YOUNG...DILKON...KYKOTSMOVI
327 PM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING..

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA SUNDAY.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHERN
PRTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 2500 FEET
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM WINSLOW TO
THE NEW MEXICO LINE STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE ROADWAYS
IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

AT THIS TIME FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS FROM NOON SUNDAY THROUGH NOON
MONDAY ARE;

4 INCHES AT THE 4000 FOOT ELEVATION IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
5 TO 10 INCHES IN THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
12 TO 24 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 10 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
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#12 Postby Janie2006 » Sat Jan 20, 2007 9:39 pm

I know where my chances of snow have gone. Snowman done got it all.


:lol:
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#13 Postby azsnowman » Sun Jan 21, 2007 8:11 am

It's NOW a "Winter Storm WARNING!" :ggreen:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1145 PM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

AZZ004>018-037>040-220700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1145 PM MST SAT JAN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WINTER SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GILA...SOUTHERN
NAVAJO AND SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTIES STARTING 8 AM MST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NOON MST. A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION AND
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE WARNING AREA. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE 12 TO 24
INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET...6 TO 12 INCHES FROM 5000 TO
7000 FEET AND 3 TO 6 INCHES BELOW 5000 FEET. SEE WINTER STORM
WARNING PHXWSWFGZ AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR MORE DETAILS.
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#14 Postby Aquawind » Sun Jan 21, 2007 8:51 am

WOO HOO! Heck you might have to change oil in the snow blower! Winter is still young.. 8-) This will all help in that Artic plunge your going to take.. :cheesy: Take your time digging out..
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#15 Postby azsnowman » Sun Jan 21, 2007 2:42 pm

Gettin' POUNDED in past 2.5 hours....already have 6 NEW inches in that time slot, add that to the 8" total from YESTERDAYS system WITH another 13+" forecast for TONIGHT and ANOTHER 6" TOMORROW :eek: :ggreen:
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#16 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jan 21, 2007 2:48 pm

Thats a lot of snow! i'd like to some pics.
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#17 Postby azsnowman » Sun Jan 21, 2007 6:24 pm

HHHhhholy CRAP! :ggreen: I'm am OFFICALLY "SNOWED IN AND STRANDED!" ALL roads leading IN and OUT of the White Mountains are "CLOSED" due to snowfall rates of 3-5" per hour!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 212204 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 250 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MID DAY MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED EAST OF A LINE FROM PAYSON TO FLAGSTAFF TO WINDOW ROCK. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .


DISCUSSION... THIS AFTERNOONS WE SEE AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR CAMP VERDE. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED BAND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP EAST OF A LINE FROM THE 4 CORNERS TO BLACK CANYON CITY. THE ORIENTATION OF THE BACK EDGE HAS BEEN SHIFTING FROM ONE OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TO ONE THATS MORE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LENDS CREDENCE TO THE MODELS IDEA THAT SOME TYPE OF COMMA HEAD WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT. THIS IS BEST SEEN ON THE 290 K SFC WITH RH...WIND AND PRESSURE.



MODEL QPFS ARE PRETTY CLOSE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY IN A WINTER STORM WARNING AND SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. THEY DO VARY GREATLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN COCONINO COUNTY...WITH THE NAM SHOWING 0.50" OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF THE S.F. PEAKS AND THE GFS WITH 0.10". WE HAVE ADDED ZONES 12 AND 15 TO THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 25 MPH ON THE EAST SIDE OF FLAGSTAFF AND THESE WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD MOVE IN SWRN COCONINO COUNTY FROM THE EAST AS THE COMMA HEAD DEVELOPS TONIGHT. THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MTNS WILL DO VERY WELL OVERNIGHT AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP.




ON MONDAY...THIS SYSTEMS CENTER IS SHOWN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TO ROCKY POINT BY 12Z AND THEN SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL CONTINUE WITH BRISK AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT WX MAKER AS MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND WINDS DECREASE. ONE NEW WRINKLE IS THAT THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER AZ IS NOW SHOWN TO LINGER OVER NWRN MEXICO. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW ON WEDNESDAY BU THIS MAY CHANGE...MAINLY FOR THE WHITE MTNS. WEDS. NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WE DID PUT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREAS EAST OF LINE FROM PAYSON TO ST JOHNS AS PROGS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE RETURNING TO THIS AREA ON SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.


THANKS TO OUR SPOTTERS FOR YOUR CALLS.
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#18 Postby azsnowman » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:23 pm

Just updated the snow amounts :ggreen:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...6 TO 14 INCHES FOR
AREAS UP TO 7000 FEET...12 TO 20 INCHES FOR AREAS ABOVE
7000 FEET.
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#19 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:06 pm

Snow has fallen in Scottsdale and parts of downtown Phoenix and all over Tucson. We also have snow here with at least 1 inch on the ground at the house. Streets in SV are starting to slush over and get covered so the morning drive will be dicey. Not to mention I-10 through the Mescal Pass west of Benson. I suspect that I-10 will probably be closed in Texas Canyons as that long curving downhill grade (7%) is always dangerous when snowy or icy-it's a mini version of the Grapevine in SoCA which used to claim trucks all of the time when their brakes would burn out when it was US99 instead of I-5.

Steve
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#20 Postby azsnowman » Mon Jan 22, 2007 7:18 am

Check this out....this low COULD come BACK in for yet ANOTHER BLAST :ggreen:

The 20" of snow overnight did not materialize which honestly, is a GOOD thing!! I have unofficaly 18" here at house already with more on the way today :ggreen:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THERE ARE MANY FORECASST MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CHOOSE FROM. THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT THE CLOSED-LOW OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD. MOST MOVE THE LOW INTO NEW MEXICO WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AFFECTING FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CLOSED-LOW IS SURE TO CHANGE AND STILL COULD INCLUDE MOVING BACK ACROSS ARIZONA. IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO TELL. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND PUT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
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