Arctic Blast for Florida?

Patrick99 · #21 Postby **Patrick99** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 9:19 am

[quote="boca"]Doesn't look like artic air is in Florida's cards at least according to NWS Miami. Lows in the 50's isn't an artic front in my book.

HAVE DEVIATED AWAY FROM THE MEXMOS POPS AND BROUGHT
THE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE THURSDAY AND ENDING OVER SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WILL BE ON
TAP ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 70.
quote]

I was thinking the exact same thing upon reading - hardly a "blast," more of a run-of-the-mill cool snap.

Temperature-wise, it's quite pleasant outside this morning...I wouldn't mind it staying like this. Warm enough for shorts, tshirt and flipflops, cool enough to not have to sweat.

jinftl · #22 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 9:35 am

Agree, looks like a cool down is in store for South Florida, but the NWS Miami is not even hinting at anything that could be called 'arctic' or 'frigid' in its latest discussion.

Maybe some of the hype that we are in for a 'once in a generation' cold snap or temperatures we haven't seen in decades is because yesterday was the 30 year anniversary of the only time in recorded history it snowed in Miami.

Cold fronts, cold snaps, a few chilly nights in the 40's and days in the 60s....we usually get a couple of those each winter.....so this would just be one of those it seems.

If this is going to happen, it better happen soon....once we get into early March the cold snaps are less frequent and less intense.

#23 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 9:46 am

The CPC forgot about the strong subtropical jet across the south-east since December, strong subtropical jet from El Nino, means no record breaking lows for the south most of the times. The same thing happened a couple of weeks ago in where the GFS was coming out with forecasting lows for south Louisiana in the 20s in its short to med range forecast run for earlier this week, well guess what, because of the stronger active subtropical jet & ridge near S FL than anticipated by the GFS, southeast Louisiana barely saw lows in the mid 30s.

Burn1 · #24 Postby **Burn1** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:03 pm

Beginning of cool down is the end of coming week.... Thurs-Sat etc....

Arctic air supposedly pushes in the following week

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

Burn1 · #25 Postby **Burn1** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:04 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

Burn1 · #26 Postby **Burn1** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:05 pm

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

ronjon · #27 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:36 pm

The first shot of cold air for Florida will come Thursday night. Looks like it will be cold but not bitterly so. It also looks to be a fairly brief shot. However, after the weekend, the long range GFS shows another strong front a week later and then a final stronger blast in early February. The last blast shows the -10 deg C line at 850 mb down into the FL panhandle. If this were to pan out, we would be seeing a major freeze in the state. The good news is that there looks to be lots of rain events (at least three) from these fronts with some hefty QPF across a rather dry peninsula.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_144s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_288s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_312s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_384s.gif

jinftl · #28 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:42 pm

Accuweather 15-day forecast...defintely a cool down in store in the middle of the forecast......looks short-lived and nothing out of the range of normal winter 'cold snaps' in south florida...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/forecast-15 ... 4&metric=0

HURRICANELONNY · #29 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:55 pm

I don't think there 15 day(GFS) has ever been close. Why even look past 5 days. :roll:

Burn1 · #30 Postby **Burn1** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:33 pm

I'm on your side...Don't believe there will be a major arctic outbreak for South Florida the week after next.... However I have heard tons of chatter about this record breaking event... 8-)

jinftl · #31 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:09 pm

I would venture to guess that a forecast of lows in the 40's would be considered 'a major arctic outbreak' by some in South Florida this winter...we have gotten so used to lows in the 60's and 70's we have forgotten what even normal feels like.

We have been running above normal for so long now...here in Fort Lauderdale, December was 5.7 degrees above normal (second warmest on record), the first 19 days of January have averaged 7.6 degrees above normal.....it will take alot for this winter to be remembered as anything but warm at this point....

jinftl · #32 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:11 pm

Latest NWS Miami discussion.....much cooler for sure, but no talk of 'a major arctic outbreak' or devestating hard freeze...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE LONG TERM...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT FORECAST INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE MAIN LOW
TRACKS UP THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH THE TRAILING FRONT
AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SHOWER
OR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE WITH LOWS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO
UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SCENARIO...NEED TO BE
CAUTIOUS ABOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. LATE MONDAY FOR
THIS SCENARIO TO HAPPEN AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS
PANS OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

Janie2006 · #33 Postby **Janie2006** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:51 pm

Mid-afternoon Model Madness continues for KMOB:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...A WELL DEFINED
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND EJECTS OUT
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY. A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKENS
AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS MISSISSIPPI ON SUNDAY. AREA RADARS
SHOW SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN NEAR THE SABINE RIVER CURRENTLY WITH
A SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ESSENTIALLY DOUBLING TO AROUND 1.3 INCHES OVERNIGHT
THEN TO 1.6 INCHES ON SUNDAY. A SERIES OF LESSER SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE IN THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH THE VAGUELY ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THROUGH
MONDAY. A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM MEANWHILE MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND PROCEEDS TO TRANSITION INTO A NEFARIOUS CUT OFF LOW
NEAR THE BAJA AREA WHICH WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT EASTWARD AND
PHASES WITH A SYSTEM ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TO FORM A LONGWAVE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS
PATTERN IS UNUSUALLY FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE 00Z MEX
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING SIX UP TO A EXCEPTIONALLY RARE EIGHT
STANDARD DEVIATIONS IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND A RANGE OF
TWENTY EIGHT DEGREES FOR THE LOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

#34 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 7:10 pm

There continues to be a big discrepancy between the 12z GFS and the Euro run. Raw outputs of the GFS show upper 20s all the way down to interior sections of Cent FL for next Friday morning. While the Euro continues to be less dramatic than the GFS, it keeps the core of the Arctic surge around the mid Atlantic and NE, not making much southward track into FL like the GFS's, the Euro quickly pushes it out too sea before affecting FL, I think that is in response the progressive pattern of the active subtropical jet across the south. One of these models is going to have to give in and get closer with the other. Hmm, which one is the right one so far, I would think that a combination of the two.

boca · #35 Postby **boca** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 5:22 am

The title of this thread should be changed to no artic air coming to Florida. None of t he NWS sites bring up artic air. I knew it wouldn't happen at least not this winter. Yes it might get a little cooler that I could actually shut my ac off, but mid 50's is not artic.

Aquawind · #36 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 8:56 am

Arctic in Florida? Notta chance ever.. When the keys are below zero lemme know.. :lol:

The title of this thread is like reading the Onion.. :lol:

#37 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 9:35 am

NWS MLB agrees with you Boca:

000
FXUS62 KMLB 210907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
400 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THU-SAT...CONTINUED SCT POPS AS COLD FRONT BLASTS SWD BACK THRU THE
CWA DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN SFC LOW STRENGTH
/POSN HAVE OPTED TO ONLY INCLUDE TS FOR THE SRN HALF CWA. GIVEN THE
ECM SOLN...DON'T FEEL CONFIDENT CONDS WILL BECOME ALL THAT UNSTABLE
...ESPEC ACROSS THE NORTH...THU MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WHILE STRONG CAA
IS ON TAP FOR THU NIGHT..THE DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE...
HENCE THE SWD DELIVERY OF COLD AIR INTO FL...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE SO
MANY TIMES THIS WINTER...SHOULD BE MUTED SOMEWHAT. ANTICIPATE MINS
RANGING FROM THE L-M40S NORTH 40F NORTH TO L50S SOUTH. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME WCI'S DROP INTO THE 30S BEFORE SUNRISE...MAINLY NORTH OF I-4.
COOL TEMPS CONTINUE FRI WITH 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA UNDER SLOWLY
WEAKENING NW-N FLOW. PRETTY DECENT RAD COOLING NIGHT EXPECTED FRI
NIGHT WITH WIND DROPPING OFF QUICKLY. MINS IN THE 40S EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A FEW U30S PSBL NR THE OCALA FOREST AND
IN RURAL SHELTERED SPOTS FARTHER SOUTH. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF ANY REINFORCING BDRY OUT AROUND DAY 7/SAT SO HAVE SHOWN
PERSISTENCE FCST THERE WITH MAINLY M60S TO L70S AND NO POPS FOR NOW.

#38 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 9:51 am

The GFS finally came to its senses on last night's 00z run, so it has backed away from its earlier 12z raw data indicating 20s for central FL Friday morning. Hopefully the CPC will come to its senses tomorrow as well, and withdraw their Friday's discussion of a possibility of record breaking lows for FL. I'm glad that many of the FL NWS's offices stuck with the ECM model instead of the GFS.
Last nights Euro run continues with its solution of another Arctic airmass intrussion coming for the midwest and great lakes towards late next weekend into early of the following week, but as it has been the case so far this winter it should run out of gasp by the time it gets closer to FL thanks to the persistant SW flow.

#39 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 9:56 am

Upper level winds continue with a negatively tilted trough into the southwestern US & the upper level ridge continuing over Florida, the Carribean & Bahamas.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_hem_loop-12.html

#40 Postby **NDG** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:11 am

Yeah, the persistant pattern across the southern US has been for ULL after ULL to drop down to the SW US and get cut off, thus keeping a persistant subtropical jet across the south central states and NW GOM while an upper level ridge to stay close to S FL and into the caribbean, even if the upper level ridge pushes southward into central america, that should push the subtropical jet closer to FL and protect central & southern FL from any Arctic invasion making much southward tracking.

Arctic Blast for Florida?

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