January 16-22, 2007 Idea: Seasons Change

[donsutherland1]

Lowpressure,

Yes, I'm talking about Sunday. For now, my thoughts remain unchanged on the issue of ice.

With respect to the rest of the East, taking into consideration the current pattern, I expect that a system will likely head east-northeastward off North Carolina and then turn northeastward, but far enough offshore to avoid a significant snowfall even as it later intensifies. I believe Baltimore and Philadelphia will see little snowfall, but erring on the side of caution for a possible error on my part with respect to the track, I'll add use the < 1" figure for both these cities.

Washington, DC might see the light snow end as a period of sleet/light freezing rain. Richmond will likely see a little snow, but that should turn into a freezing rain per the soundings and 0.25" or more of ice is possible there. The storm should have little impact in either New York City (maybe a stray flurry) or Boston (perhaps some flurries or snow showers).

My estimates for the 1/21-22 event are as follows:

Baltimore: <1"
Cincinnati: 2" or less
Cleveland: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: < 1"
Richmond: <1"
Washington, DC (DCA): 2" or less

Looking ahead for later in the week, another storm could bring at least some snowfall to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Consistent with my view concerning the present pattern, I believe a track somewhere between the 12z GFS ensembles and 12z ECMWF is reasonably likely. This would probably bring the heaviest precipitation northeastward of NYC. For now, eastern New England, including Boston, is probably at greatest risk of receiving at least an appreciable (possibly significant) snowfall. Lesser odds exist for New York City south and westward. In the wake of the storm, a fresh surge of cold air should push into the East.

For now, I believe the greatest chance of a major snowfall for a widespread part of the East Coast would probably lie in the 1/28-2/20 timeframe. Before then, some near misses for that region appear more likely. Parts of New England, including Boston and perhaps Providence, have a better chance at seeing more meaningful snowfall prior to the 1/28.

There is still time for changes in the modeling. There is also opportunity for me to bust.

[donsutherland1]

With the air mass being somewhat colder than modeled on the MOS, I believe snowfall amounts in Washington, DC and Baltimore may prove a little higher than what I first thought.

My final estimates for the 1/21-22 event are as follows:

Baltimore: 2" or less
Cincinnati: 2" or less
Cleveland: 1"-3"
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Richmond: <1" (significant icing)
Washington, DC (DCA): 1"-3"

Looking ahead for later in the week, another storm could bring at least some snowfall to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. The best chance for any meaningful snowfall would be eastern New England (including Boston). PHL to NYC may see only a light snowfall, if that.

[TampaFl]

Goood morning Don. Great insite to this cold out break. What are your thoughts about Florida getting an artic outbreak with a major freeze? There have been rumors that Florida will have a major, possible devestating hard freeze for the citrus areas around the first week of Feb. It is getting awfully late in the season for Florida to be hit with a devestating freeze into the citrus areas. Climo & history has had Florida's coldest temperatures ever recorded in the month of Dec. & Jan. Plus I cannot recall a time when California & Florida citrus were devestated by freezes in the same year. Thoughts and comment greatly appreciated. Thanks.

[jinftl]

good question....not even sure where the rumors of a MAJOR freeze event in florida started (not in this thread or from Don)....or if they were based on solid forecasting....i went onto NWS Miami website this morning expecting to see discussions about freezing temps, arctic invastions, the bottom falling out, etc...and all I saw was this....

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1034 AM EST SUN JAN 21 2007

.UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...AFTER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WE CAN EXPECT MUCH COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE 50S SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. HIGHS EXPECTED WILL BE ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

January 21-22, 2007 event:

From January 20:

Baltimore: <1"; Actual: 0.9"; Within range
Cincinnati: 2" or less; Actual: 3.7"; Error: 1.7"
Cleveland: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0"; Within range
Philadelphia: < 1"; Actual: 0.5"; Within range
Richmond: <1"; Actual: Trace; Within range
Washington, DC (DCA): 2" or less; Actual: 1.2"; Within range


From January 21:

Baltimore: 2" or less; Actual: 0.9"; Within range
Cincinnati: 2" or less; Actual: 3.7"; Error: 1.7"
Cleveland: 1"-3"; Actual: 1.0"; Within range
Philadelphia: 1" or less; Actual: 0.5"; Within range
Richmond: <1" (significant icing); Actual: Trace; Within range
Washington, DC (DCA): 1"-3"; Actual: 1.2"; Within range

[gatorcane]

Don great analysis. A month or so ago, I was betting that the above normal warmth could never last through the whole winter. If the first part of winter is warm, usually the second part makes up for it and is cold or below normal.

We are seeing this right now....

[weartherkid]

where are you from ?

[weartherkid]

ok now im excited.

how is you weather today?

[weartherkid]

wx247,
WICHITA KANSAS weather is now little hot now 50.5"f

where are you from ?