TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[Shoshana]

I'm a little late in responding. and thank you for the info on how to do a slide show, Shoshana!

Guess I was the only one on here in the Austin area that lost power during the great ice storm that wasn't nuffin like what Oklahoma got slammed with. So much for having underground utilities in my area.

Yikes! Glad to see you are back online. It's more rare for the power to go out when you have underground utilities - ours have gone out when someone cuts a line somewhere or something happens at the substation (usually during lightning storms) but so far never because of winter weather - at least not since we have had underground utilities.

I'm looking forward to seeing your slide show!!!!

[Ptarmigan]

Another ice threat possible next week for north Houston?

Latest NWS forecast:

This Afternoon: Periods of showers. High near 49. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Tonight: Periods of rain. Low around 45. East wind between 5 and 10 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 56. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 51. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Monday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 41.

Tuesday: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Thursday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a high near 56.

temps. in the lower 30s with a 20-30% chance of precip. bears watching IMO.

I have heard there is a chance of freezing rain again.

[WhiteShirt]

I have heard there is a chance of freezing rain again.

When?

[TexasSam]

Much to my supprise the temperature has been going up here for the last 2 hours. Up to 55, with light (nasty) rain. The warmest it's been since Tuesday. (even if it is night time)

[double D]

I have heard there is a chance of freezing rain again.

When?

Actually the models have trended warmer and now looks like a cold rain for much of the state.

The 00z NAM paints a pretty wet picture for Central and south Texas for Tuesday and Wednesday....it will be interesting to see if that verifies or not.

[TexasStooge]

The DFW forecast calls for a slight chance of sleet & snow from Monday Night into Tuesday Evening.

[wxman57]

Much to my supprise the temperature has been going up here for the last 2 hours. Up to 55, with light (nasty) rain. The warmest it's been since Tuesday. (even if it is night time)

A weak surface low is moving across Houston. Just ahead of the low we have a SE wind that's bringing warmer Gulf air over the city. As the low passes in the next few hours the winds will shift back around from a northerly direction and cool us back down.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This is some of the steadiest rain we have seen in awhile here. It just keeps coming down outside (and is fairly heavy too)!

[Shoshana]

We have a DENSE FOG ADVISORY going on here till 9am.

At least it's not that really weird Frozen Fog or Ice Fog or whatever it was called this past week.

38F instead of 31F makes a huge difference.

[aggiecutter]

The morning Ensembles still look very, very cold at the end of the month into February.

Morning Ensembles:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens/ ... times.html

[double D]

I noticed that the operational run of the gfs continues to look pretty cold for the middle to end of next week (28th-2nd). If this trend continues it looks like more wintry precip could develop across the state...will be interesting to see if the gfs will continue this trend.

[Extremeweatherguy]

where did all this sunshine come from today in Houston??

When I woke up I expected another cloudy, chilly and wet day. Instead it is now mostly sunny with a light breeze and temperatures in the 60s!

Due to this "surprise" sunshine, IAH has also now officially ended it's below 60-degree streak after just 6 days (It was expected to be 10+), and they are currently sitting at 61F.

I guess I better enjoy this nice change while I can though b/c next week looks to have us return to a cloudier, wetter pattern.

[WhiteShirt]

I noticed that the operational run of the gfs continues to look pretty cold for the middle to end of next week (28th-2nd). If this trend continues it looks like more wintry precip could develop across the state...will be interesting to see if the gfs will continue this trend.

Does it look like a wintry precip chance around Houston?

[double D]

I noticed that the operational run of the gfs continues to look pretty cold for the middle to end of next week (28th-2nd). If this trend continues it looks like more wintry precip could develop across the state...will be interesting to see if the gfs will continue this trend.

Does it look like a wintry precip chance around Houston?

Since it's still 8-10 days away it would be hard to pinpoint who has the best chance of seeing any winter precip ( if any). It looks like there could be a decent overrunning situation going on, but will there be enough cold air in place is the question....should be fun to follow though.

[aggiecutter]

Oh no, We're all going to freeze:

CPC 8-14:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Oh no, We're all going to freeze:

CPC 8-14:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

Wow! When was the last time you saw a map like that??

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

BTW, You forgot about the map that shows Texas and most of the south with above normal precip too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB calling for cold pattern to possibly last into March.

His latest temperature forecast for Feb. has Dallas at 4-degrees BELOW normal.

And for March he is calling for Dallas to be 1-degree BELOW normal.

This means the state of TX will likely continue to experience colder-than-normal conditions for at least the next 20-40+ days.


Based on this, I predict that at least one more winter event reaches Houston before the winter season is over. Let's just hope that next time it is snow instead of ice.

[jasons2k]

Extremely rare to have more than one event in a season for Houston.

[southerngale]

Well, the "event" here was really a non-event, so maybe I'll get my one event, and you all can have some leftovers.