When will the first named storm of 2007 season form?

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When will the first named storm form?

Poll ended at Mon Jan 22, 2007 7:59 pm

May
22
21%
June 1-10
10
10%
June 11-20
17
16%
June 21-30
27
26%
July 1-10
8
8%
July 11-20
5
5%
July 21-31
7
7%
August 1-10
3
3%
August 11-20
3
3%
Rest of August and Beyond
3
3%
 
Total votes: 105
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cycloneye
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When will the first named storm of 2007 season form?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 21, 2007 7:59 pm

This is another of those questions that comes up every year at this time.And time goes by quickly with only 130 days left for June 1 as of January 21rst so I think it's a good time to post this question.

Time until Friday, June 1, 2007 (New York time)
130 days
3122 hours
187374 minutes
11242482 seconds

I will say by the June 11-20 timeframe.

A Reminder to the members that the most important poll (The Official Storm2k forecast poll) will start on April 1.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed May 09, 2007 11:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Jan 21, 2007 8:18 pm

im thinking late june
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angelwing
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#3 Postby angelwing » Sun Jan 21, 2007 9:00 pm

I'll be the first one to say May (yeah I know it's a longshot but someone has to pick it :D )
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#4 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:13 pm

June 11-20. I think we see a weak to moderate TS form in that time period in either the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.
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#5 Postby johnq1954 » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:08 pm

SSTs are hot as hades for January.

May.
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#6 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:18 pm

July 1-10
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#7 Postby AussieMark » Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:18 pm

I will say Mid August

like 1998 was

coming off a el nino a delayed start to the hurricane season
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#8 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:04 am

Mid-June. However, no hurricanes until late August or early September.
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#9 Postby Chacor » Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:48 am

First week of July...
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#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jan 22, 2007 12:51 am

I said may, because El Nino is weakening, and the ocean temps are warmer than average
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#11 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Mon Jan 22, 2007 8:13 am

I picked mid-July. But with these warmer than average ocean temps and the fact that El Nino will be gone by May, I should have picked Early June.
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#12 Postby hial2 » Mon Jan 22, 2007 9:23 am

Hurricaneman wrote:I said may, because El Nino is weakening, and the ocean temps are warmer than average


Wasn't an abnormally strong Bermuda/Azores high a big factor in suppressing storms last year? Is it possible to forecast it?
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 22, 2007 2:25 pm

Frankly,I am a bit surprised about how many haved voted so far for the May option,considering that El nino may linger thru that month.

But anyway,a good participation in the voting so far being this time of the year when this forum is very slow.Those who haved not voted yet,come and vote as this poll will not close at any date.
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#14 Postby Opal storm » Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:15 pm

June 21-30 near the Yucatan.I'm sure folks will be waving the SEASON CANCEL flag as soon as June 2nd. :lol:
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#15 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:35 pm

brunota2003 wrote:July 1-10


Agreed.
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#16 Postby Janie2006 » Mon Jan 22, 2007 10:38 pm

hial2 wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:I said may, because El Nino is weakening, and the ocean temps are warmer than average


Wasn't an abnormally strong Bermuda/Azores high a big factor in suppressing storms last year? Is it possible to forecast it?


I would think that a strong Bermuda high would serve to suppress the storm track to the south in many cases. The Bermuda high is a semi-permanent feature, so I think it would be a matter of forecasting it's relative strength.
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Coredesat

#17 Postby Coredesat » Mon Jan 22, 2007 11:01 pm

Last week of June, give or take a week depending on the strength of the ridge.
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#18 Postby canetracker » Wed Jan 24, 2007 10:35 pm

I say a TS in late June
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#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jan 25, 2007 12:56 am

I'll add on to what I think, when I said may, I should have said the last week of may
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#20 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 25, 2007 9:43 am

August 1-10. I'm going with climatology. Only in about every other season does a named storm form before August. I know recent years have been a bit more active early-on, but 2007 may not be active in June/July (I hope). It'd be nice to only have a 2 1/2-month hurricane season.
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