Arctic Blast for Florida?

[fci]

Used to be we were good for at least one "Arctic" shot a year or so.
"Arctic" for South Florida meaning highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's with a chance of Frost inland.
This year has been nothing like it and I would be shocked if it happened.

A dud of a Hurricane Season ( a VERY good thing) and a dud of a Winter ( a good or bad thing depending on who you are and whether you like a respite from warm weather every once in a while).

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think will get more into the El Nino type weather were suppose to have down here. End of January into early Feb should be more wet and cool. The last strong El Nino in 97 brought some fierce storms through here in early feb 97. So maybe even though this doesn't compare to 97 El Nino will have more rain and some cooler weather anyways.

[fci]

I'll take cooler ( I like cool weather as a change to the every day hot we see most of the year) and wetter (hate droughts and want to still water my lawn)!

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not an Artic Chill but I'll take 59 degrees on Jan25 @ 7:11pm in Hollywood Fl.

[cpdaman]

yes yesterday the temperature in boca raton was 69 degrees at 9am as i left work at 10 am and drove to boynton beach (8 miles north) temperature fell to 59 then by the time i got home to wellington the temp was 55 degrees this is at 11am , yes it was a cold front

there will be another on sunday

[Jim Cantore]

all the mention of 1977, none of 1899. When it dropped to -2 in Tallahassee and 29 in Miami. Snow fell in Tampa and Fort Myers and areas north of Tampa had blizzard conditons.

[ronjon]

Looks like some of the bitterly cold air may make it into central FL on Tuesday morning. Burrr!

From the Tampa Bay NWS Disc:

FIRST...WE CONTINUE WITH SOME LEFTOVER COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +1C NORTH TO +8C SOUTH. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...THEY ARE NOT UNUSUALLY COLD... AND IT WOULD TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS VERY COLD TUESDAY MORNING LOWS...AS COLD AS 19F AT BROOKSVILLE AND 25F AT VANDENBERG! IF SKIES WERE GOING TO BE CLEAR...THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE REACHABLE...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE A RATHER THICK LAYER OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL KEEP US FROM RADIATING THAT STRONGLY. STILL... WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW IN PLACE AND QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES TO OUR NORTH...SOME OF THAT COLD AIR WILL FILTER DOWN. WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND SHOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT CLOSER TO 40 NEAR THE COAST.

[TampaFl]

Looks like some of the bitterly cold air may make it into central FL on Tuesday morning. Burrr!

From the Tampa Bay NWS Disc:

FIRST...WE CONTINUE WITH SOME LEFTOVER COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +1C NORTH TO +8C SOUTH. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW AVERAGE...THEY ARE NOT UNUSUALLY COLD... AND IT WOULD TAKE A GOOD DEAL OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TO GET SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. THAT SAID...THE LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HAS VERY COLD TUESDAY MORNING LOWS...AS COLD AS 19F AT BROOKSVILLE AND 25F AT VANDENBERG! IF SKIES WERE GOING TO BE CLEAR...THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE REACHABLE...HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WE WILL STILL HAVE A RATHER THICK LAYER OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL KEEP US FROM RADIATING THAT STRONGLY. STILL... WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW IN PLACE AND QUITE COLD TEMPERATURES TO OUR NORTH...SOME OF THAT COLD AIR WILL FILTER DOWN. WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND SHOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES AS WELL. ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT CLOSER TO 40 NEAR THE COAST.

Ronjon, does look rather "chilly" especially Tuesday morning. I have noted that this winter all the computer models have been bisaed cold on the low temps for our area this winter. Case in point the low for Tampa Friday morning (1/26) was 42 when the NWS forcasted a low of 39! and that was without cloud cover. Agree with their AFD this morning. One good thing though, is we are finally getting some rain, more typical of an EL NINO winter.

[ronjon]

Hmmm... where are all the "winters dead" writers lately? The Arctic Air eventually won out versus the SE Ridge. From Tampa Bay NWS Disc:

MONDAY NT...COLDEST NIGHT IN NEARLY 2 YEARS EXPECTED WITH CLEAR
SKIES LIGHT WINDS TO SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
TEMPS PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET WITH LONG DURATIONS...8 TO POSSIBLE 12
HOURS... OF FREEZING TEMPS OVER THE NATURE COAST...BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE MID 20S FOR HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS WHILE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS AROUND THE BAY DROP AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR 3 TO
6 HOURS. HAVE EXPANDED THE FREEZE WATCH INTO THESE AREAS. FREEZE
WARNINGS ARE ONLY ISSUED WITHIN 24 HOURS OF EVENT...SO EXPECT ONE TO
BE ISSUED TOMORROW MORNING. FROST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA AND HAVE ADDED TO GRIDS AND ZONES. TEMPS SOME 20+
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

[NDG]

Only if high clouds don't move in by then will see temps that cold. NWS office is betting that GFS is too aggressive in developing a disturbance in western gulf by tomorrow night thus spreading high clouds over FL tomorrow night. Instead they are going along the ETA model, crazy of them, but playing safe just in case.

[ronjon]

Wow my thread title was finally picked up by the NWS!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

...ARCTIC BLAST OF AIR ON ITS WAY...

[MiamiensisWx]

Miami NWS is getting progressively less aggressive with overnight surface temperatures for south Florida both in the interior and coastal locations, especially with some indications of upper-level cirrus intrusion as the surface front interacts with mid-level ridging in the western Atlantic and washes out; comsequently, in tandem with a possible weak western GOM disturbance, you can see evidence of possible cirrus progression over southern and central Florida here, which may partially keep warmer overnight lows for Monday and through the next 60 hours and beyond.

I expect Tampa-Ruskin NWS to slightly back off the original progged overnight lows for Monday night as these synoptics play out.

Here is a snippet from the latest Miami NWS discussion.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 282029
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007


.DISCUSSION...

THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY EXITED THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE HANDLED THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM VERY WELL...BOTH
WITH EXPECTED WEATHER AND TIMING OF THE FRONTAL APPROACH AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENTERING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NOW THE
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DROP. MONDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS...TO UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 COASTAL REGIONS.

AS HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED...THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS WILL
BE DIMINISHED AT THAT TIME...REDUCING ANY MIXING.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE AT THE 200 TO 400 MB LAYER THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND POSSIBLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A CIRRUS
CANOPY POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS SAME AREA. THIS COULD REDUCE THE
RADITIONAL COOLING EFFECTS AND KEEP THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
SECTIONS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WHILE THERE IS A FREEZE WATCH OUT
FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...REFER TO PRODUCT
NPWMFL...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER FOR THE
TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE AFORMENTIONED POSSIBILITY OF A CIRRUS
SHIELD THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO WARRANT A
FREEZE WARNING AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DECREASE. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS WILL BE WESTERLY
13 TO 17 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 00Z...THEN NW AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS IN EXECESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS IN EXECESS OF 20 KNOTS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS THE WINDS CHANGE TO
MORE NORTH NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT...THIS WILL START TO INTERACT
WITH THE GULF STREAM AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AT LEADT 10
FEET BY EARLY MONDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.


This is a significant change. Note the much less aggressive overnight lows both inland (lower to middle 40s) and at the coast (upper 40s to low 50s) for tonight and Monday, which were originally progged 24 hours ago to reach the upper 30s in the interior and lower to middle 40s along coastal southeast Florida. This is significantly less impressive, despite the lack of the persistent (now suppressed) surface heat ridging earlier in December 2006 and early 2007. Although this is a significant improvement from the considerably above normal departures we have been recently witnessing, it is just a temporary cooling down to average to slightly below average temperatures. Current dewpoint trends are also marginally favorable when combined with other factors, resulting in less cold air advection across south Florida both inland and at coastal locations.

I personally doubt some of these newer projected Monday night lows (and even tonight's progged lows) for southeast Florida may even verify. I expect lows to verify on the warmer bias, especially with the additional lack of some effective radiational cooling synoptics for southeast Florida tonight and overnight Monday.

[Patrick99]

This one isn't going to be so long-lasting, it seems...this morning, tomorrow morning, and that's it. All in all, not so abnormal for January 29. It just feels colder than it otherwise would because of all the hot weather the rest of the month. hehe

[gatorcane]

Patrick, looks like the Southeast coast of Florida may be saved by the Gulf stream yet again....models want to bring the winds out of the northeast later tonight which would prevent temps from getting that cold here -- probably stay in the 50s to even some 60s along the immediate coastline.

NWS Miami snippet

THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS THAT COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT FROM THE
WEST REDUCING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING EVENT. HOWEVER WITH THE VERY
DRY AIR AT THE LOW LEVELS TODAY...LOW TEMPS COULD STILL GET DOWN
TO NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS TOWARD SUNRISE TUESDAY. SO WILL KEEP
THE FREEZE WATCH UP FOR THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT...AND LET THE DAY SHIFT DETERMINE IF A FREEZE
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY
FROST OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE CWA TOWARD SUNRISE.

FOR REST OF CWA TONIGHT...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS DO TRY TO BRING
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

Let's see how the cirrus cloud canopy unfolds...

[feederband]

HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...
WINTER HAVEN
412 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM
EST TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING A FEW HOURS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30
FOR THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF INTERIOR HILLSBOROUGH AND
WESTERN POLK COUNTIES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
UP TO SIX HOURS OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS OF TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 27 AND 32 OVER A WIDESPREAD AREA.

TO PREVENT FREEZING AND POSSIBLE BURSTING OF OUTDOOR WATER PIPES...
PIPES SHOULD BE WRAPPED...DRAINED...OR ALLOWED TO DRIP SLOWLY. THOSE
THAT HAVE IN-GROUND SPRINKLER SYSTEMS SHOULD DRAIN THEIR SYSTEMS...
OR COVER ANY ABOVE-GROUND PIPES TO PROTECT THEM FROM FREEZING.

RESIDENTS SHOULD COVER OR MOVE INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE
PLANTS...AND BRING PETS INDOORS THIS EVENING.



Damn!!!! I thought I was going to get though the whole winter without covering the plants...

O'h well I guess I better get started now lots to cover.....

[MiamiensisWx]

Patrick, looks like the Southeast coast of Florida may be saved by the Gulf stream yet again....models want to bring the winds out of the northeast later tonight which would prevent temps from getting that cold here -- probably stay in the 50s to even some 60s along the immediate coastline.

I disagree. The Gulf Stream is highly overemphasized for moderating southeast Florida surface temperatures. It is far from the sole factor, and in my opinion it is often not as significant as some believe. South Florida (both interior and coastal) on average regularly experiences at least one or two freezes (and possibly one significant freeze) and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s (interior and Okeechobee regions) and upper 30s (coastal southeast Florida) each winter. If the Gulf Stream were a saving grace, south Florida's cold temperatures in winter of 2000, 2001, and 2002 (and climatologically frequent freezes and cool daytime average highs and overnight average lows throughout the 20th Century and in previous centuries) would not have occurred.

You have to face up to the fact that recent winters down here (especially more and more frequently over the past four or five years) have differed climatologically from the norm and have exhibited a warming trend bias. I do understand that this is not the northern and central CONUS, but by south Florida (and most of the United States) standards the region is climatologically cooler and more prone to freezes during the winter than some people have been led to believe.

In addition, most models (and initial NWS forecasts) for south Florida temperatures this year have consistently verified as having a cool bias, with the actual temperatures (both day and overnight) have actually turned out warmer, and locally significantly warmer.

[jdray]

Well, NE Florida got the blast.

28 at my house this morning, tomorrow should be about 22F.

Cold enough for me to call it an Arctic Blast.

Freeze Warning in effect from 9PM to 9AM

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, NE Florida got the blast.

28 at my house this morning, tomorrow should be about 24F.

Cold enough for me to call it an Arctic Blast.

I was referring to south Florida, NOT central or northern Florida. The cold air surface advection should be sufficient for lower to middle 20s in northeast Florida.

Hope you enjoy it!

[jdray]

South Florida is its own climate type really, nothing else compares in the US.

[gatorcane]

Patrick, looks like the Southeast coast of Florida may be saved by the Gulf stream yet again....models want to bring the winds out of the northeast later tonight which would prevent temps from getting that cold here -- probably stay in the 50s to even some 60s along the immediate coastline.

I disagree. The Gulf Stream is highly overemphasized for moderating southeast Florida surface temperatures. It is far from the sole factor, and in my opinion it is often not as significant as some believe. South Florida (both interior and coastal) on average regularly experiences at least one or two freezes (and possibly one significant freeze) and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s (interior and Okeechobee regions) and upper 30s (coastal southeast Florida) each winter. If the Gulf Stream were a saving grace, south Florida's cold temperatures in winter of 2000, 2001, and 2002 (and climatologically frequent freezes and cool daytime average highs and overnight average lows throughout the 20th Century and in previous centuries) would not have occurred.

You have to face up to the fact that recent winters down here (especially more and more frequently over the past four or five years) have differed climatologically from the norm and have exhibited a warming trend bias. I do understand that this is not the northern and central CONUS, but by south Florida (and most of the United States) standards the region is climatologically cooler and more prone to freezes during the winter than some people have been led to believe.

In addition, most models (and initial NWS forecasts) for south Florida temperatures this year have consistently verified as having a cool bias, with the actual temperatures (both day and overnight) have actually turned out warmer, and locally significantly warmer.

I disagree with you about the Gulf stream. It's only about 5 miles offshore of the Boca/Delray area and is typically in the 78F-80F range all winter. The Southeast Florida coast from about Jupiter down through the Florida Keys benefit the most from this current. Once the winds have enough of an easterly component (even if the winds are NNE or NE)....the gulf stream quickly modifies this cold air.

If an arctic high pressure manages to get over South Florida, then freezes can happen because the winds are light and variable.

One morning the temp outside my house in coastal Boca Raton (about 1.5 miles from the ocean) was about 48F and within about 30 minutes rose to 64F once the winds went from calm to ENE at 5-10 mph.....

Once you get well-inland in South Florida, the Gulf stream has less of an effect. In fact why do you think that SW Florida is typically about 5-7 degrees colder than the Southeast coast during arctic outbreaks? Even Tampa, a little bit north and west can be up to 10-15 degrees colder than Boca Raton down through Miami/Ft.Lauderdale.

The gulf stream is a deciding factor and if it were not for that current, Southeast Florida would have a climate similar to Tampa and Ft. Myers on the West coast....

Here is a link to current SSTs in the Gulf stream:
http://marine.rutgers.edu/mrs/show/?fil ... 35.n17.jpg