What is everyone's worst case hurricane scenario? (Ortt pg3)

[Derek Ortt]

Since we are in the February Doldrums, I thought I'd start a thread where those who choose could give their worst case hurricane scenarios.

I'll wait a few days before posting mine. It is not what everyone would think I am about to write (or at least I do not think so). But I'd like to hear other thoughts before providing my horrific scenario

[Deputy Van Halen]

I thought I'd start a thread where those who choose could give their worst case hurricane scenarios.

OK, do you mean worst case for ourselves and our personal situation, or worst case for the most people and for the nation?

[JonathanBelles]

personal situation, Charley (2004)
national situation, Direct hit on NYC.

[jinftl]

Interesting question and i look forward to reading the replies that are submitted.

My first thought is that a 'worst case scenario' would need to include a couple of factors thar really earn it the distinction of that title. First, it would need to be a monster of a storm.....in strength and/or windfiled size. Second, it would need to effect a vulnerable area with a high density of people, resulting in widespread devestation to property and the disruption of normal existence for many. Third, I would think that there would have to be some element of surprise to the storm....if we were certain the 'big one' was coming in advance, at least some preparations and more importantly, evacuations could be made.....probably not preventing destuction but at least saving lives.

So...the worst case scenario would be a monster at landfall, with the core hitting a densly populated area that did not expect the storm to hit or prepared for a much weaker version.....I am thinking Katrina if she had spent 6 or 8 hours more over water before making landfall on the Dade/Broward line (densly populated, growing to a much higher category than it did for her florida landfall as people were preparing for a tropical storm/weak hurricane).

I have heard a local met say that Katrina just started to bomb out not long before it hit Florida and a few more hours could have given our area one heck of a shock.

[HurricaneHunter914]

My worst case scenario would be an Ivan/Charley Scenario. It would be a TC forming in the Cape Verde Islands and moving through the Caribbean. The cane would then strengthen to a 150 mph Cat-4 and hit the Yucatan Peninsula. After that it remerges into the GOM as a 105 mph Cat-2 later becoming a 125 mph Cat-3 and takes a sharp NNW turn that later becomes a NNE turn. During that time, the cane would gradually slow down, allowing it to gather energy from the warm water below.

During that time the cane gradually strengthens to a 145 Cat-4 later becoming a 160 Cat-5. It then speeds up gradually so that it eventually hit's the borderline along LA and Alabama as an 155 mph Cat-4. The cane would then continue moving NE into Geogria, SC, and NC before remerging out in the Atlantic as a 40 mph TS. After that, the cane starts to move East, then SE, and then finally South. It continues South, strengthening to a 110 mph Cat-2 before hitting the Dominican Republic. Soon after that, the cane rapidly weakens to a 50 mph TS before making a SSW turn.

Soon the TS finds itself in the middle of the Caribbean again before making a WSW turn, barely missing the Island of Jamaica. A slow strengthening begins with the cane becoming 90 mph Cat-1 and then 100 mph Cat-2 in a matter of 4 days, now moving West ever so slowly. The cane then just stops in the NW area of the Caribbean and continues to strengthen up to a 115 mph Cat-3. It then continues moving again, but now it is WNW! That WNW becomes NNW while strengthening to a 130 mph Cat-3. Soon a North movement begins as the cane moves right through the Yucatan Strait. That N movement ends as a high from the north slides south, causing the cane to move NNE and then ENE.

Now a 145 mph Cat-4, the cane speeds up moving at ENE at 20 mph. It continues moving until hitting the the Tampa Bay Area as a 140 mph cane. The cane continues moving ENE with a slightly more Northerly turn into the Winter Haven area as a 125 mph cane. Soon the Orlando/Sanford area feels the rath of the storm, but only as a 100 mph hurricane. The hurricane then exits off Daytona Beach as a 85 mph hurricane. The cane only becomes faster moving NNE at 30-35 mph, but also strengthening to a 95 mph cane.

The NNE then becomes NNW as the cane accelerates eventually hitting the New York area as an 80 mph hurricane eventually losing Tropical Characteristics in Canada.

It's long, but it's just the way I planned it.

[Derek Ortt]

OK, do you mean worst case for ourselves and our personal situation, or worst case for the most people and for the nation?

Overall worst case

[GeneratorPower]

The overall worst-case scenario would have to include a surprise storm that goes from a Tropical Wave to a Major in record time, hitting a major city where they have just had a near miss (I.E., people don't want to evacuate again).

[Opal storm]

Ultimate worst case scenario for me would be being in the NE eyewall of a large,slow moving major hurricane (like Ivan/Katrina).

Another worse case scenario would be a lopsided TS or cat 1 hurricane stalling out just a few miles off the coast for a few days causing major flooding, coastal flooding and persistent strong winds keeping people stranded inside.

[Janie2006]

It's kind of difficult to pick an overall worst case scenario. Katrina was pretty darned close.....but...would have been even worse for New Orleans had Katrina struck 50 miles to the east (yep, it did pass over Buras...I think). I think Fact had a pretty bleak scenario with a strong hurricane accelerating up the east coast and striking NYC.

[boca]

I worst case scenario would be the track of a cape verde cane that started traveling west skirting the north coast of PR. The eye about 15 miles off the coast with 120 mph winds and battering the north coast of PR. The hurricane enters the SE Bahamas and bombs out like Andrew did but the size of Gilbert. It moves WNW roughly at 10 mph and has winds of 155mph and is 85 miles ESE of Miami and 100 WNW of Nassau. Six hours later her eye is 25 miles ESE of Miami moving between WNW and NW at 175 mph hitting Ft Lauderdale it turns NW travelling up St Rd 27 towards Lake Okeechobee passing directly over the Lake with 150 mph winds heading towards Tampa heading NW with 140 mph winds battering the bay area. While this is happening theirs a strong cold front entering the Florida panhandle forcing our storm to turn abrutely NE 5 miles west of Clearwater and travelling the length of I-4 thru Orlando with 110mphs winds and exists Daytona with 100 mph winds

[JonathanBelles]

I worst case scenario would be the track of a cape verde cane that started traveling west skirting the north coast of PR. The eye about 15 miles off the coast with 120 mph winds and battering the north coast of PR. The hurricane enters the SE Bahamas and bombs out like Andrew did but the size of Gilbert. It moves WNW roughly at 10 mph and has winds of 155mph and is 85 miles ESE of Miami and 100 WNW of Nassau. Six hours later her eye is 25 miles ESE of Miami moving between WNW and NW at 175 mph hitting Ft Lauderdale it turns NW travelling up St Rd 27 towards Lake Okeechobee passing directly over the Lake with 150 mph winds heading towards Tampa heading NW with 140 mph winds battering the bay area. While this is happening theirs a strong cold front entering the Florida panhandle forcing our storm to turn abrutely NE 5 miles west of Clearwater and travelling the length of I-4 thru Orlando with 110mphs winds and exists Daytona with 100 mph winds

could it really hold its intensity that long?

[boca]

Doubt it fact789,but if it was the size of Gibert maybe.

[HurricaneBill]

I'd say a midget hitting a major city, kinda like Cyclone Tracy did.

Or maybe a situation like Wilma in 2005, except a severe surge hits Key West. Remember, most did NOT evacuate the Keys for Wilma.

[LaPlaceFF]

I lived it 08/28/2005...

[Hurricaneman]

I wouuld think a storm of 175 hitting Miami heading WSW into the gulf as a 130mph storm near Naples, turns NE about 125miles from Florida and strengthens to a cat 5 heading for Tampa, reemerges at Daytona as a 100mph storm, goes mre NNE and skims by Cape Hatteras as a 125mph storm, at 39north, turns strait north 35 miles east of Atlantic city into New York City as a 120mph storm. Pretty much a mix of Donna and the 1938 hurricane

[Windspeed]

I have had this discussion with many reputable experts and hurricane specialists at one time or another since the 2003 season. In 2005, I had the privilege of discussing this topic with Dr. Phil Klotsbach and Dr. Chris Landsea at two separate occasions. The following nightmare scenario might surprise you in that it did not involve the city of New Orleans prior to the Katrina catastrophe, even though I had also had numerous discussions about that city and a large surge event.

I will try to be brief, but first I want to take you back to 2003 and remind you of the monster Cape Verde hurricane that churned across the Atlantic. Between September 11th and 15th, Hurricane Isabel maintained a minimum pressure of at least 922mb or lower and at least 130kt winds for nearly four straight days without interruption. Her peak intensity was recorded at 915mb and 145kt sustained winds. One of the highest wind speeds ever recorded in an Atlantic hurricane was found in Isabel at 203kt at about 4500ft on September 13th. Now, understand, there have been four hurricanes in the Atlantic since Isabel that were more intense at least in minimum pressure--Ivan, Katrina, Rita, and the mind-boggling Wilma. And certainly all of these storms, Rita excluded, were responsible for hundreds and even thousands of deaths. However, I am going to present to you why a hurricane like Isabel in a similar weather pattern could present the worst possible scenario, far exceeding anything we saw from even Katrina.

On September 8th and 9th, Isabel was organizing rapidly and taking a more westerly path due to the influence of strong Azores-Bermuda ridging over the central Atlantic. When the storm moved under this ridge, a vigorous upper-level high established itself directly over Isabel and further strengthened due to the intensification of the storm itself. By September 10th, Isabel had formed a large and well defined 20-30nm eye. The stormed bombed over night reaching its peak intensity on the 11th. But something very interesting occurred on the 11th and 12th. Key contributing factors turned Isabel into the prototypical annular hurricane. Keep in mind, Isabel was a large circulation storm. The atmospheric conditions around Isabel were also somewhat dry. Isabel moved off the African coast with moderate SAL to its north. Dry air moved west with the overall pattern in association with the Azores-Bermuda ridge. Based on the SSTs under the storm around 28.2-28.7ºC, Isabel maximized its potential as a carnot heat engine. The OHC did not have to be overly deep based on the forward speed, but was deep enough regardless. These factors in combination with the overall atmospheric pattern around Isabel allowed the storm to go annular. That is, the storm took on a very donut shape. The large eyewall in Isabel's core had sufficient fuel and a very favorable environment to maintain itself without the threat of outer eyewall forming with regularity. It appears as if high pressures and the dry air that existed around the periphery of the storm squashed thunderstorms. So basically, this amazing and intense donut of an eyewall went on churning for almost 4 straight days with only one documented replacement cycle. Such an event is very rare and takes just the right conditions we saw with Isabel to maintain.

Storms like Wilma and Katrina existed in very different atmospheric environments where air around the periphery of the storms were moist and allowed for rapid development of thunderstorms in feeder bands. These bands feed the core, but eventually consolidate to form rings and eyewalls themselves, starving the core and weakening the storm--hence frequent eyewall replacement cycles. Isabel had virtually no such bands--just a donut of fury--hence the long annular appearance and sustained intensity of 130kts or more for almost 4 days. On September 14th, the eye had actually increased in diameter instead of the typical shrinking we see with intense storms. This was all due to the storms structure and the environment around the core.

Now what does all this have to do with a worst case scenario? Shift that entire Atlantic pattern about 20 degrees west. Put a hurricane like Isabel in that pattern and consider the nightmare implications. What if a storm identical to Isabel moved directly across the Florida peninsula? A large storm that is has gone completely annular in a similar atmospheric environment, with a higher chance of maintaining extreme intensities through landfall, and with a tremendously large eyewall spanning 30, 40 and even 50nm (Isabel's eye was around 50nm wide on 13th/14th) at or near Cat 5 intensity.

Even consider an eyewall of 40nm in diameter with Cat 5 winds. From the inner most vertical rise of the wall, estimate outwards of 10 to 15 miles for surface intensities in such a large storm--winds sustained around 130 kt or more with gusts over 160kts. The entire county of Palm Beach would fit inside of Isabel's eye! Now feel your heart sink when you realize that a path 60 to 70 miles in width would stretch inland for nearly 100 miles rendering complete and unimaginable destruction, with major destruction extending another 100 miles beyond. The surge from a storm the size of Isabel would force 18-20 ft above tide even on the east coast of Florida. If the storm crossed near Lake Okeechobee, the implications are even more dire. Factoring in forward speed of Isabel on its west-to-wnw track, the large donut hurricane would likely emerged from the west coast still at or near Cat 3 or upper Cat 2 intensity. Though the surge would have been severe, this would be a real wind killer. Anyone that stayed behind would have a low probability of survival if they were even in a well-constructed building, if caught within that wind-swath. I believe the death toll and financial loss from such a scenario would be so staggering it would dwarf anything we saw from Katrina. Even considering this is hurricane savvy Florida, I believe you could expect deaths pushing into the tens of thousands and financial losses approaching 1 trillion. A natural disaster of proportion never experienced by the United States.


September 13th - Note the perfect annular shape and enormous eye!

Some great microwave imagery showing the evolution of the "donut ring" eyewall with minimal outer banding 10-14th:

[f5]

Katrina would of been N.O . worst case scenarion had it hit the city as a 5 Rita would of been the same for Houston

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A major (cat 3, or weak cat 4) hit on New Jersey and NYC (placing the City in the NE quadrant of the Eye Wall, or in the Eye itself) at or near high tide, no doubt about it. Unlike areas further South people in this general region DO NOT KNOW HOW TO PREPARE FOR HURRICANES, and think they can not occur that far North.

[Cryomaniac]

For me personally it would be a storm staying tropical a long way east, skirting the south of Ireland and hitting the UK, I'm near the east coast, so the worst would be over by the time it hit where I am, but if last weeks windstorm was anything to go by, it would be bad.

Overall worst case, as has been said a lot already would be a cat 3 or 4 diurect hit on NYC.

[gatorcane]

I worst case scenario would be the track of a cape verde cane that started traveling west skirting the north coast of PR. The eye about 15 miles off the coast with 120 mph winds and battering the north coast of PR. The hurricane enters the SE Bahamas and bombs out like Andrew did but the size of Gilbert. It moves WNW roughly at 10 mph and has winds of 155mph and is 85 miles ESE of Miami and 100 WNW of Nassau. Six hours later her eye is 25 miles ESE of Miami moving between WNW and NW at 175 mph hitting Ft Lauderdale it turns NW travelling up St Rd 27 towards Lake Okeechobee passing directly over the Lake with 150 mph winds heading towards Tampa heading NW with 140 mph winds battering the bay area. While this is happening theirs a strong cold front entering the Florida panhandle forcing our storm to turn abrutely NE 5 miles west of Clearwater and travelling the length of I-4 thru Orlando with 110mphs winds and exists Daytona with 100 mph winds

All I have to say about that is you took the words out of my mouth.