TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[TexasStooge]

According to the latest North Texas Short Term Forecast, we got some wintry mix south and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth .

.NOW...
PATCHY AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE HILL COUNTRY...INTO THOSE PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
SOUTHWEST OF A BRECKENRIDGE...STEPHENVILLE...MERIDIAN...WACO...
CAMERON LINE THROUGH 9 AM. SOME VERY LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW FLURRIES
MAY INITIALLY MIX WITH THE RAIN WELL WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL NOT ACCUMULATE OR CAUSE PROBLEMS WITH ROAD
CONDITIONS...AS ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED.

At least it's not enough to cause some traffic tie-ups.

[icicle]

nice. dare we hope for some snow??

[wxman57]

nice. dare we hope for some snow??

Not unless you're in west Texas.

[Mathias]

nice. dare we hope for some snow??

Not unless you're in west Texas.

Pardon me, wxman57, I am just trying to catch the current train of thought here, but are you answering icicle in reference to the weather for the remainder of this week as posted in TexasStooge's quotation of the Dallas-Fort Worth AFD, or is this in reference to the possible arctic outbreak for next week, or perhaps both?

IMO, Probably in reference to this week, by my take, because it is too far in the future to predict with any absolute confidence where the southern jet stream (in conjunction with the northern jet stream) will be positioned next week to posit where any possible freezing precipitation might be located. Just a guess, on my part.

[Portastorm]

12z GFS run coming in now ... am very curious to see if it continues to trend next week of a historic Siberian cold outbreak for us.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[icicle]

yes, I was refering to next week. sorry for the confusion.

nice. dare we hope for some snow??

Not unless you're in west Texas.

Pardon me, wxman57, I am just trying to catch the current train of thought here, but are you answering icicle in reference to the weather for the remainder of this week as posted in TexasStooge's quotation of the Dallas-Fort Worth AFD, or is this in reference to the possible arctic outbreak for next week, or perhaps both?

IMO, Probably in reference to this week, by my take, because it is too far in the future to predict with any absolute confidence where the southern jet stream (in conjunction with the northern jet stream) will be positioned next week to posit where any possible freezing precipitation might be located. Just a guess, on my part.

[Lowpressure]

12z GFS run coming in now ... am very curious to see if it continues to trend next week of a historic Siberian cold outbreak for us.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

Looks pretty chilly for the eastern 1/2.

[Portastorm]

Through 114 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _114.shtml

(Hello Texas ... I'm Siberian cold!)

[GeneratorPower]

wxman57, what would be the likely P-Type with this setup?

[Portastorm]

Out to Day 7 and not looking as cold as the 0z run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Out to Day 7 and not looking as cold as the 0z run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

I guess that old barbed wire fence is going to stop it at the Red River again.

Silly GFS.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

LOL. Day 13 shows Brownsville and Tampico getting a snowstorm. Maybe even some good snow for Corpus!! Sorry, somebody pumped up the GFS with some steroids or something.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _324.shtml

[double D]

LOL. Day 13 shows Brownsville and Tampico getting a snowstorm. Maybe even some good snow for Corpus!! Sorry, somebody pumped up the GFS with some steroids or something.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _324.shtml

I think the GFS got confused on what part of the country Texas was in.

[Portastorm]

I saw that and this run makes little sense. One day its bearing down on the Southern Plains with arctic cold and the next its backing the cold back into the Plains and eroding its affect.

JB suggested that the magnitude of this cold will simply overwhelm the GFS until we get into short-range. Looks like he may be right. The 0z run had the polar vortex sitting over the Great Lakes around Day 10. This 12z run has the PV over upper New York state.

[double D]

I saw that and this run makes little sense. One day its bearing down on the Southern Plains with arctic cold and the next its backing the cold back into the Plains and eroding its affect.

JB suggested that the magnitude of this cold will simply overwhelm the GFS until we get into short-range. Looks like he may be right. The 0z run had the polar vortex sitting over the Great Lakes around Day 10. This 12z run has the PV over upper New York state.

This run couldn't look more different than the 0z run. The GFS is doing it's normal flip-flopping and I assume it will correct itself by tomorrow.

[wxman57]

nice. dare we hope for some snow??

Not unless you're in west Texas.

Pardon me, wxman57, I am just trying to catch the current train of thought here, but are you answering icicle in reference to the weather for the remainder of this week as posted in TexasStooge's quotation of the Dallas-Fort Worth AFD, or is this in reference to the possible arctic outbreak for next week, or perhaps both?

IMO, Probably in reference to this week, by my take, because it is too far in the future to predict with any absolute confidence where the southern jet stream (in conjunction with the northern jet stream) will be positioned next week to posit where any possible freezing precipitation might be located. Just a guess, on my part.

That was for today/tomorrow. Too "warm" across Dallas area.

[wxman57]

12z GFS run coming in now ... am very curious to see if it continues to trend next week of a historic Siberian cold outbreak for us.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

The 12Z GFS completely lost the cold air at the surface (again). The upper pattern is similar to the 00Z ECMWF and Canadian, but the surface features and even thickness lines don't seem to match the 500mb flow.

[Yankeegirl]

This is the one of the first posts I have heard about any more cold weather moving into SE Texas... I know its a ways out, but what is it looking like.. cold and snow? cold and ice? Cold and cold?

[aggiecutter]

I just looked at the noon Ensembles, and they aren't near as cold looking as they have been. The 0z EURO at day 7 still looks cold, but it looks like the brunt of the cold is being shunted off to the Northeastern part of the country.

Noon Ensembles:
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12312.html

0z EURO Day 7:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[Portastorm]

The 12z Euro run looks colder than the 0z run. Check out at 168h.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... ml#picture