TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[JenBayles]

Much as I've enjoyed having more seasonal temps here in SE TX this winter, I can truthfully say, "I'm OVER it already!" Day after day after day of cold and rain is wearing on my last nerve. Ah well, the grass is always greener and all that stuff, right? I just keep trying to remind myself of all the fleas and mosquitoes drinking their last. Just how cold does it have to get to kill those suckers anyway?

[aggiecutter]

The local forecasters out of Shreveport aren't even hinting at arctic cold for next week. They predict Texarkana's highs will be in the lower and mid 50s through Wednesday. Maybe they're waiting on latter model runs to mention it, but I find it really odd that I haven't seen any AFD's from the local weather services in Texas posted on this BB mentioning the supposed arctic outbreak next week, especially something that is supposed to be of great magnitude.

tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 34. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. North wind around 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 33. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: A slight chance of rain, then a chance of rain and thunderstorms after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 45.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 28.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 31.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 33.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 56.


Current local weather
Texarkana Regional-Webb Field
Last Update on Jan 24, 3:53 pm CST

[southerngale]

The local forecasters out of Shreveport aren't even hinting at arctic cold for next week. They predict Texarkana's highs will be in the lower and mid 50s through Wednesday. Maybe they're waiting on latter model runs to mention it, but I find it really odd that I haven't seen any AFD's from the local weather services in Texas posted on this BB mentioning the supposed arctic outbreak next week, especially something that is supposed to be of great magnitude.

I saw wxman57 mention the 8-10 day timeframe earlier today, and that we'd have a better idea on where/when for frozen precip NEXT week...perhaps that's why.

[Yankeegirl]

I agree, I think its way too early to even talk about more chances of ice and cold weather until maybe next week... You know how all the models love to flip flop.... Im going to wait till next week to start getting worried....

[ROCK]

Much as I've enjoyed having more seasonal temps here in SE TX this winter, I can truthfully say, "I'm OVER it already!" Day after day after day of cold and rain is wearing on my last nerve. Ah well, the grass is always greener and all that stuff, right? I just keep trying to remind myself of all the fleas and mosquitoes drinking their last. Just how cold does it have to get to kill those suckers anyway?

Well there is hope. Rain is being pushed off shore and clearing to our north. Might even see the sun tomorrow. WX57 mentioned last week we wouldnt see sun until Thursday.

Hey Wx57 can you pick my lotto numbers for tonight?

[Wren]

I have not seen a weather report today, but last evening KVUE weatherman said this front would have cold air pulled in from Siberia, and that the cold would stretch deep into Mexico. He also said this would be a rare cold event, one of the coldest for Austin. He called it a real pipe buster.

[aggiecutter]

Here's the hazard assessments issued by the CPC this afternoon. They think the brutally cold air won't reach here until a little after the 5th.

CPC Hazard Assessments: Scroll below maps to read text:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... l#SYNOPSIS

[aggiecutter]

Bastardi is riding the EURO train and thinking the brunt of the cold will be in the center part of the country.

[wxman57]

Much as I've enjoyed having more seasonal temps here in SE TX this winter, I can truthfully say, "I'm OVER it already!" Day after day after day of cold and rain is wearing on my last nerve. Ah well, the grass is always greener and all that stuff, right? I just keep trying to remind myself of all the fleas and mosquitoes drinking their last. Just how cold does it have to get to kill those suckers anyway?

We used to have this pattern in place all the time back in the El Nino 1980s. The split flow went on for years and years. Seemed like all winter long it was 40s and rain and no sun for 3-4 weeks at a time. At least we have some sun today. Time to hit the bike this afternoon!

[Johnny]

So I guess no sever cold here in the extended? Sounds good to me.

[double D]

Wow! The 12z GFS looks pretty cold in the day 10 period. I wonder if it is finally catching on of the upcoming cold pattern? Let's see if this becomes a trend or if it goes back to a warmer solution. Looks like it may be more in line with the EURO now.

Let me re-phrase that, The 12z doesn't look pretty cold, it looks downright frigid.

[wxman57]

Wow! The 12z GFS looks pretty cold in the day 10 period. I wonder if it is finally catching on of the upcoming cold pattern? Let's see if this becomes a trend or if it goes back to a warmer solution. Looks like it may be more in line with the EURO now.

Let me re-phrase that, The 12z doesn't look pretty cold, it looks downright frigid.

It's hard to say with the GFS. Every 6 hours it's a completely different solution at the surface. But I think the 12Z surface progs for around the 4th-6th of February DO at least match the associated 500mb pattern for a change. It shows a strong Arctic blast moving through Texas by the 3rd followed by a strong upper-level low moving across the state. That would mean a considerable ice/snow event. Still a long way out. We're talking the weekend after next.

[Below N.O.]

Wow! The 12z GFS looks pretty cold in the day 10 period. I wonder if it is finally catching on of the upcoming cold pattern? Let's see if this becomes a trend or if it goes back to a warmer solution. Looks like it may be more in line with the EURO now.

Let me re-phrase that, The 12z doesn't look pretty cold, it looks downright frigid.

It's hard to say with the GFS. Every 6 hours it's a completely different solution at the surface. But I think the 12Z surface progs for around the 4th-6th of February DO at least match the associated 500mb pattern for a change. It shows a strong Arctic blast moving through Texas by the 3rd followed by a strong upper-level low moving across the state. That would mean a considerable ice/snow event. Still a long way out. We're talking the weekend after next.

Am I missing something? I don't see a match. ?

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_500_10d.html

[rsdoug1981]

That's last night's 00z run, Below N.O. Wxman57 is referring to today's 12z.

[double D]

Wow! The 12z GFS looks pretty cold in the day 10 period. I wonder if it is finally catching on of the upcoming cold pattern? Let's see if this becomes a trend or if it goes back to a warmer solution. Looks like it may be more in line with the EURO now.

Let me re-phrase that, The 12z doesn't look pretty cold, it looks downright frigid.

It's hard to say with the GFS. Every 6 hours it's a completely different solution at the surface. But I think the 12Z surface progs for around the 4th-6th of February DO at least match the associated 500mb pattern for a change. It shows a strong Arctic blast moving through Texas by the 3rd followed by a strong upper-level low moving across the state. That would mean a considerable ice/snow event. Still a long way out. We're talking the weekend after next.

Am I missing something? I don't see a match. ?

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_500_10d.html

I think you were looking at the 00z model and I was referring to the 12z model.

Whoops, rsdoug1981 beat me to it

[aggiecutter]

The 12z run of the operational GFS pretty much jibes with today's 0z run of the EURO and the 0Z run of the GFS ENSEMBLES. The system coming out next friday will need to be watched closely by the people in NE Texas as it could turn into a surprise snow event.

[Below N.O.]

Wow! The 12z GFS looks pretty cold in the day 10 period. I wonder if it is finally catching on of the upcoming cold pattern? Let's see if this becomes a trend or if it goes back to a warmer solution. Looks like it may be more in line with the EURO now.

Let me re-phrase that, The 12z doesn't look pretty cold, it looks downright frigid.

It's hard to say with the GFS. Every 6 hours it's a completely different solution at the surface. But I think the 12Z surface progs for around the 4th-6th of February DO at least match the associated 500mb pattern for a change. It shows a strong Arctic blast moving through Texas by the 3rd followed by a strong upper-level low moving across the state. That would mean a considerable ice/snow event. Still a long way out. We're talking the weekend after next.

Am I missing something? I don't see a match. ?

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/10d/gfsx_500_10d.html

I think you were looking at the 00z model and I was referring to the 12z model.

Whoops, rsdoug1981 beat me to it

Thanks!

[jasons2k]

In terms of averages/normals, we have bottomed-out and are now on the upswing towards spring.

Yesterday our average high rose for the first time from 62F to 63F.

Tomorrow the average low rises for the first time from 41F to 42F.

Let the march to spring begin!!!

[cycloneye]

In terms of averages/normals, we have bottomed-out and are now on the upswing towards spring.

Yesterday our average high rose for the first time from 62F to 63F.

Tomorrow the average low rises for the first time from 41F to 42F.

Let the march to spring begin!!!

Countdown to Spring



Time goes by fast and spring will arrive rapidly.Above is the countdown towards the first official day of spring.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z run of the operational GFS pretty much jibes with today's 0z run of the EURO and the 0Z run of the GFS ENSEMBLES. The system coming out next friday will need to be watched closely by the people in NE Texas as it could turn into a surprise snow event.

It might not be a surprise if the models actually catch on (and latch on) to the event this time. Seems like with this kind of cold the snowstorm could also extend very far south into the state too (and not be limited to just NE zones)

Late next week/next weekend should be an interesting ride for all of us.