TX Winter Wx Threat # 9--- Another Arctic Outbreak?

[gboudx]

The 12z run of the operational GFS pretty much jibes with today's 0z run of the EURO and the 0Z run of the GFS ENSEMBLES. The system coming out next friday will need to be watched closely by the people in NE Texas as it could turn into a surprise snow event.

It might not be a surprise if the models actually catch on (and latch on) to the event this time. Seems like with this kind of cold the snowstorm could also extend very far south into the state too (and not be limited to just NE zones)

Late next week/next weekend should be an interesting ride for all of us.

Should? Or could? Is there enough support a this time to lay the percentages on the >50% side?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z run of the operational GFS pretty much jibes with today's 0z run of the EURO and the 0Z run of the GFS ENSEMBLES. The system coming out next friday will need to be watched closely by the people in NE Texas as it could turn into a surprise snow event.

It might not be a surprise if the models actually catch on (and latch on) to the event this time. Seems like with this kind of cold the snowstorm could also extend very far south into the state too (and not be limited to just NE zones)

Late next week/next weekend should be an interesting ride for all of us.

Should? Or could? Is there enough support a this time to lay the percentages on the >50% side?

At this point, any talk of snow is really just speculation for the state. However, it does look like cold air is probably pretty likely sometime late next week or next weekend and if that combines with moisture, then a wintry mess is possible.

We should know more about specific snow/ice chances for the state come next week.

[jasons2k]

I looked at the runs this AM and it didn't look like anything ominous for SE Texas. Maybe snow up in the panhandle (which is nothing unusual) and possibly, possibly a wintry threat north of a Temple/Lufkin line, but that's it unless things change.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I looked at the runs this AM and it didn't look like anything ominous for SE Texas. Maybe snow up in the panhandle (which is nothing unusual) and possibly, possibly a wintry threat north of a Temple/Lufkin line, but that's it unless things change.

Have you checked out the 12z GFS yet?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _240.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _252.shtml

things have changed a bit from this mornings runs. lol.

As always though, these flip flops will probably continue and no one run should be trusted until we get closer to the event. Still, it is interesting to see the GFS showing nearly -10C surface temps. and precipitation over SE Texas at the same time. It would be absolutely crazy if it verified.

[rainman31]

does that second link show the coast below freezing?

[jasons2k]

I don't think the 12Z run will verify.

[Extremeweatherguy]

does that second link show the coast below freezing?

Yes. In fact, it shows it freezing all the way to Brownsville.

[Air Force Met]

I looked at the runs this AM and it didn't look like anything ominous for SE Texas. Maybe snow up in the panhandle (which is nothing unusual) and possibly, possibly a wintry threat north of a Temple/Lufkin line, but that's it unless things change.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

That's not ominous? The 12Z run puts 15F through north houston at 00Z in 252 hours...and I think it is probably too slow with it...and a whole lot of precip...

The upper air pattern...with the ridge and bubble high over AK justs begs for an Arctic outbreak to head south and east. The only thing that makes me believe this won't be brutal...record setting cold (you will have some records...but it won't rank up there with '83...etc) is that there isn't a lot of brutally cold air to be tapped. The frigid air has been tapped twice already (last week and again this week). It's cold...but not terribly cold. It's -31C in Siberia...and that's kinda Balmy for them.

However, the pattern is such that we will get cold here. The upper levels are perfect for an outbreak. We should be counting our lucky stars we already tapped the cold air...or we would be having some real problems with the loss of the citris crop in a week or so given the way the upper air pattern is looking...because when it comes to ominous...it doesn't get any more ominous. There is cross polar flow all the way into the southern plains states for almost a week. Not sure I've ever seen it last that long.

[gboudx]

DFW gives a mention in the PM AFD. Only the pertinent part quoted.

FORECAST REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN GOING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...HOWEVER MORE OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
RETROGRESSION OF THE LONG WAVE TROF INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THE
MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST ONE
ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN
THE MODELS VARYING SOLUTIONS IN HANDLING THE COLD POLAR VORTEX
CURRENTLY OVER CANADA...AND TROUBLE WITH THE NUMBER OF SYSTEMS
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...HAVE KEPT MENTION OF ANY WINTRY
PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...AND HAVE UNDERCUT MEXMOS
TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION. LOOKS LIKE A WEAKER SHOT OF
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN LATE TUESDAY...AND WILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

[Air Force Met]

I don't think the 12Z run will verify.

Chances are that "look" won't verify. What is ominous is the ridging taking place in the upper levels. I think the lower levels are hosed. The upper levels...ridging..etc...are showing up run after run...model after model. The EURO and the Canadian are showing the ridge busting into the north pole. That is major. Looking at historical events...you really don't need that much of a ridge...and not that deep of a trof...to bring arctic air south into SETX. All you really need is a dislodging of the polar vortex and the arctic air. Here is some historical references:

Dec 1983:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... e=1024x768

Feb 1989 (notice all the SW flow...the cold still came):
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... e=1024x768

Jan 1978 (6 straight record low maxs):
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... e=1024x768

Dec 1989 (single digits):
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... e=1024x768

So...in our record cold events...there's nothing close to the amplitude we are about to see...except 1983 that initially sent the cold down and 1989...but this is more N-S flow than that was.

So...while I suspect the sfc won't verifiy...I do suspect some form of the upper air pattern will...since every model is hinting at it...and that means a very cold pattern...just not as cold as times past since it has been tapped already.

[Hurricane_Apu]

Local NWS has now adjusted longterm temps downwards. Instead of a warmup there's now talk of more significant cold @7 days +...

[Extremeweatherguy]

AFM,

though you think Houston will not see a repeat of '89, do you think this upcoming airmass still has the potential to be the coldest airmass the city has seen since '89? (Basically..do you think Houston has a shot at seeing temperatures below 19-degrees from this upcoming arctic blast?)

[Air Force Met]

AFM,

though you think Houston will not see a repeat of '89, do you think this upcoming airmass still has the potential to be the coldest airmass the city has seen since '89? (Basically..do you think Houston has a shot at seeing temperatures below 19-degrees from this upcoming arctic blast?)

Yeah...that's certainly possible. It's still up in the air whether or not the air goes east or south...or both. I certainly think we will see temps in the lower 20's before it is over with.

[jasons2k]

ouch, ouch. That's certainly a plant killer. I hope it goes east.

[aggiecutter]

That's the big question. Will the brunt of the cold head toward the Ohio Valley or the Central plains and on down into Texas. That'll make the difference between this being just another cold front, or a front people will remember for years. Any of the mets have any thoughts on where the core of the cold will eventually end up. Bastardi is now using the 94 analog. That year the biggest cold anomalies were in the Ohio Valley, and Texas only got a glancing blow from the cold.

[double D]

That's the big question. Will the brunt of the cold head toward the Ohio Valley or the Central plains and on down into Texas. That'll make the difference between this being just another cold front, or a front people will remember for years. Any of the mets have any thoughts on where the core of the cold will eventually end up. Bastardi is now using the 94 analog. That year the biggest cold anomalies were in the Ohio Valley, and Texas only got a glancing blow from the cold.

Well Mark Murray (KVUE Austin) who was the first met to call out the NWS on their slow timing of the arctic front (which he nailed) is calling for some of the coldest air Austin has seen in many years. He said today that he is growing confident that Austin will see teens for lows and used the term "a real pipe buster". In fact he thinks the leading edge of this cold air will come down next Thursday and get progressively colder as the weekend approaches.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That's the big question. Will the brunt of the cold head toward the Ohio Valley or the Central plains and on down into Texas. That'll make the difference between this being just another cold front, or a front people will remember for years. Any of the mets have any thoughts on where the core of the cold will eventually end up. Bastardi is now using the 94 analog. That year the biggest cold anomalies were in the Ohio Valley, and Texas only got a glancing blow from the cold.

Even if the brunt goes east, this will be a lot more than "just another cold front". Either way, even with just a glancing blow, this front will likely still produce some of our coldest min. temperatures of the year.

Also, as for Bastardi..here is a brief quote from his 6pm quote (for the S2K members who want a glimpse into what he is saying):

Again that analog to 94, while I dont think this will get it to -21 in Chicago, does have a good shot at a couple of 0 degree days...for highs there and a day when its in the teens in Dallas.

seems pretty cold to me. Even though he is using the '94 analog, it seems that he also thinks it will not be quite the same. He has repeatedly called for cold reaching TX in his posts recently and has not said that he thinks the cold will be going east of here. Teens for highs in Dallas is not something that happens everyday.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z EURO is brutal. That's the coldest run of the model I have seen yet.

12z EURO: Be sure and change the parameters to 500mb. You can change the days you want to see just above the map. You'll probably have to change the initialization time also.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... uv850_z500

[Extremeweatherguy]

I decided to look at the Austin news and see what they were saying at this point, and I happened to come across this great TV met forecast...

http://www.kvue.com/weather/?ln
^^click the link and then find the section of the page where you can watch the weather forecast^^

I really wish we could get a met like this on the air in Houston. This guy was very good in explaining the situation in detail and giving his own bold thoughts on what may happen.

[rainman31]

I don't think any of the Houston mets have even mentioned anything yet.